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The host introduces the new one-bet series and breaks down the first several UFC 334 matchups. This section covers Sanchez, Diaz, Malecki, and Costa, with a mix of moneyline and parlay-piece reasoning.
This is one bet for every fight at UFC 334.Today's my birthday, and this is my gift to the MMA community.So, make sure you guys smash the like button for the new series.Subscribe to the channel if you're new.Turn on the post notifications too, and don't forget to share the video.I want you guys to let me know in the comments what you think of this new series.Let's jump right into it.First up is Evan Elder Samuel Sanchez.I'm putting the one bet on screen right away.I'm not keeping you waiting.Sanchez money line.He's my pick to win.I think he beats Evan Elder.You can find a plus money knockout tag, and you know, you could chase something like that.But Elder's pretty crafty.And it's Sanchez's first fight on the roster.I think he's really good, explosive athlete with knockout power.
And just cuz I think he's going to do big damage and I'm picking the knockout, doesn't mean I want to absolutely lock down the knockout.Initially, Sanchez was a plus 100 money line.He was actually an underdog lock contender for me, but the line flipped.I think at minus 125, it's a solid play on a guy that seems to have real top-tier potential.23 years of age.I don't got to worry about how it gets done.I just know I'm backing somebody that I think could take it pretty far.Elder's tough, 29, three and two in the UFC with three straight UFC wins, but the opposition of the wins isn't that impressive to me.And the performances are all right, but nothing he's done makes me say hell yes, Evan Elder as an underdog.Instead, I'm thinking Sanchez at close money.That feels right to me.
And the first one bet is going to be Sanchez money line at minus 125.I think he polls through, and I think he looks good, and I think he lands some heavy shots with a big power advantage on the feet.Next, we're jumping to Diaz.Ella Tong Haley versus Juan Diaz.I think at minus 425, it's a good piece.It's one of those fights where you could be like, I want to find value though.Where's my plus money?You could chase Juan Diaz winning by a certain method.His submission game is good.His striking skills are precise and that's where my worry comes because if he's to finish, I think he's live to do damage on the feet and definitely live to sub too.But on the opposite side, Ella Tang Hey Lee, though I think he lost to John Castañeda and is pretty mid.
Never been finished in the UFC.Hasn't been finished in years.It's like Come on now.To say Diaz absolutely stops him doesn't feel like the smart investment.I feel like Diaz fights smart.I think he picks shots well.I think this fight's very live to start round two.Like you could same game parlay a Juan Diaz and fight starts round two, but then you're kicking yourself if he does have the masterclass and gets it done in one, especially with Ella Tang Hey Lee recently fighting againstCastañeda and I thought he should have lost that fight.So I'm like, you know what?At -425, yeah, the line's not great, but I'll trust in Diaz to show out and as a parlay piece, it calls my name.So I like Juan Diaz to win -425.You're not going to money line that straight.Instead, you'll put it in a parlay and it could add a little value to your parlay and I feel Diaz should absolutely show out.
The next one, I got to go parlay piece again.It's Macy Chiasson V Bea Malecki.I think Bea's got a real chance to win by sub, but at like even money, I'm not crazy about the prop.And then I 'm thinking the possibility of her getting a decision called me.I was like, do I degen run it +450 decision?Something you could do, but this is one bet.And I think it becomes the one bet would be Malecki at -275 feels like a parlay piece, but recognize I almost put Skip because it's women's MMA.Macy Chiasson's tall as and Bea Malecki's striking needs work, but on the ground she's a lot better than Macy.Macy got taken down a lot by Eileen Perez.And logic would say a championship level jiu-jitsu grappler, if she's able to get the similar positions that Eileen Perez did, she finishes the job by sub.
So I see the intrigue for a sub line.But I'm looking at it now.It's minus 115.So again, it becomes I think sub or decision, but what are they going to give you for that?Minus 250?Minus 275 becomes parlay piece territory.I think it's one of those spots you could consider skipping it.You could say, man, I think fight starts round two.That's minus 220.I almost gave that out.But again, I had to parlay piece it back to back and we'll go mosquito down the center in a parlay making more sense than the rest.
The analysis continues through Costa, Johnson, McKinney, and Duncan, focusing on finish props and matchup dynamics. The speaker emphasizes power, wrestling edges, and why several fighters are better played by stoppage than straight moneyline.
Next, we're going Costa by finish.Now we're having a good time again.I was getting bored myself with the parlay pieces.What the hell was that?Costa finish minus 115.Costa's got dangerous striking.His kicks are wicked, sharp.And his jiu-jitsu is slick.Jared Gordon's getting past his prime.I really do think we're seeing a deteriorated version of Jared Gordon.He's lost two in a row, bad loss to Rafa Garcia.I know he got hit by a car earlier in the week.I know.I was there not watching it happen obviously, but I was there fight week.And then last time Jim Miller subs him and Jim Miller's, you know, 49.I think Melky moving up from 45 to 55 is going to look savage here.Putting on a little muscle.He was already getting too big for 45.He was on a killer's tear and his last fight was against Arnold Allen.
He didn't look bad.He just got outworked by one of the better featherweights in the world.Lighter man skill for Melky Costa, knockout ability for Costa, submission savviness.I think we see Costa go out and win by finish.It's one bet for every fight.So there are more value slash safety viewpoints that I'm bringing to this show.So minus 115 for finish which sense.Now, of course, logically you could say, well, parlay piece Melky Costa.I agree.I put them in the true lock parlay with Juan Diaz.It's like minus 150 if you ran that.But I'm not doing three parlay pieces in a row when I see a more clear pathway to Costa getting the stoppage.Primed at 30 with some nasty finishes recently versus Gordon getting finished two in a row.Method of victory, how the finish goes, that's where it gets a little murky.
But if you're a DJEN, you want to run it.I know it's one bet for every fight, but I'll just mention the DJEN sprinkle, especially because I've talked about this for the week.Costa sub plus 425 is the DJEN chase.But for the sake of this show, we'll go minus 115 on the Costa finish line making the most sense.The next fight up is going to be Johnson versus Almeida.I think Dante Johnson for the plus money finish tag has to be trusted.And I hear you.But Cody Brundage, man.Okay.You guys might hate this take, but I'm not entirely sure Caesar Almeida's beating Cody Brundage in 2026.Brundage is a good wrestler.Brundage has some striking skill.His power's real.He just beat Petroski.I get it.Dante Johnson looked pretty mid against him 8 months ago, but still managed to get the win.
And then he fights Eric Macoco and kills him in the first round.Caesar Almeida just got destroyed by Damian Pinoss 3 months ago, like brutalized.And then the fight before that, Caesar Olik Jachuk in his UFC debut dominated him on the ground.Caesar Almeida's wrestling is mediocre.Dante Johnson's wrestling solid.Not elite, but solid.I think the takedown defense live to get exposed from Caesar Almeida, but Johnson still carries heavy power on the feet.I could see him landing big shots.I don't think he's going out to win a decision.Dante Johnson is no decision merchant.Of his nine pro wins, eight by finish.And he's got seven first round knockouts.So though the striking on paper kind of favors Caesar Almeida because of his kickboxing prowess and technicality, knockout power, Dante Johnson.Younger guy, athletic, wrestling advantage, actually trying to become a champion versus Cezar Almeida who had a long kickboxing career before getting to the UFC.
Logic tells me Dante Johnson shall win by finish and if some takedowns work, I could see Cezar Almeida getting slapped.I actually think Dante Johnson could knock Cezar Almeida out just in a, you know, kickboxing style fight though Almeida's sharper.Dante Johnson, younger, more explosive, and I think dangerous as hell.And then you mix in some wrestling.I think Cezar Almeida could get lit up on the feet kind of, you know, getting a little wary of the takedown threat and dropping levels and then Johnson whips him with a hard shot over the top.So Dante Johnson to win by finish plus 130 because there is the possibility of a sub.He could strangle Cezar Almeida on the mat.He should be stronger in grappling by a large margin, but he's not a lay and pray merchant, so I'll say he gets the finish at plus money.
This chapter covers McKinney, Duncan, and Radtke before moving into the main card. The speaker leans into round-one and submission props, especially where age, durability, and grappling create value.
And then the next one, Terence McKinney round one or bust.Terence McKinney round one is minus 110.Recognize what this means to me.Terence McKinney money line.He doesn't win fights past the first round.Terence McKinney either loses past the four minute mark or he wins before it.There's no other way to play him.It's Terence McKinney round one.This is the money line.The money line for this fight on Terence McKinney is minus 110s.You have even money on Terence McKinney to win because he's not going to win any other way.And then on the opposite side, Jim Miller is a plus 160.So, you know, you can go for the 43 year old, but like be realistic.Yeah, Terence McKinney quit after Bobby Green survived his onslaught, but still he did immense damage to King Green who whooped Jim Miller for 15 minutes.
I think Terence McKinney's knocking him out in the first round.And just in case he decides to choke him out if he has him hurt, McKinney could sub a hurt Jim Miller as good as Miller's jits is.I'll go round one, McKinney minus 110.Makes all the sense in the world.I like that a lot actually.And then the next one, Duncan by finish.This feels like kind of a 50/50 fight where you favor the younger guy.I think it's going to be a scrap for as long as it lasts.These two are going to bring it.It's going to be a war.We're going to see big shots exchanged.There's going to be chances on both sides.I'll be honest, both guys could be rocked here.But I'm trusting in Duncan because at 33 he's more primed than Drew Dober at 38.And you might look at Dober's last fight against Michael Johnson.
I picked him to win, too.You might say, damn, but he's still landing.Oh, he beat Prepolec.But if you rewatch the Prepolec fight, the reason he won is because he kicked Prepolec in the nuts.And if that doesn't happen, he's probably losing.He was getting lit up by Kyle Prepolec, man.Chris Duncan may get hit with some big shots early because let's just call a spade a spade.His defense okay?But it's all right cuz he's got a pretty good chin and he hits pretty hard and I think he's going to end up out chining the side of Drew Dober.And then with Duncan, though he's got some big punching power, he likes to shoot for submissions.And a rocked Drew Dober after getting busted up a bit, alive to give up the neck.You look at Duncan's skill set, seven knockouts, which is definitely a reasonable outcome for subs, too, though.
And three subs over the past two years.I think that matters.So I feel like the finish at plus 100 for two guys that are going to go for it and then favoring the younger man who I think's more versatile and, you know, not as battle worn as Drew Doberwho's got 15 losses.Duncan finished and giving you plus money.That feels like the right side.The next one, Radtke by sub at plus 750.What this means is I think Wonderboy is past his prime.He's 43.I get it.He's been the ageless Wonderboy, probably cuz the nickname moniker boy keeps him young.But you know when these fighters hit 40, it's like this.It just happens.Davey Grant got dusted by Elijah Smith.Prior to that in his last fight he was in a war with Luna Martinetti.Other fights like he's going to split decisions getting robbed against guys like Daniel Marcos, who are really good.
Then a young explosive guy in Elijah Smith Chinzo.Now, of course, Charles Radtke is not 23, he's 36, but he's 36 versus 43.Radtke's in his prime now, and he's showing improvements.In his two UFC losses are Mike Malott and Carlos Prates.And his grappling is very good.A lot of people just think of Radtke as kind of a boxer bruiser type, but he's not.He's actually more of a jiu-jitsu wrestler.And I feel like Wonderboy, though he was able to stop some grappling attempts from Bonfim, could really find himself in some compromised positions on the ground with Charles Radtke.Wonderboy also hasn't fought in a year and 3 months.A year and 3 months off when you go from 42 to 43 big deal to me.And Radtke's got punch power and Radtke's got the wrestling edge.I think Radtke can finish Wonderboy.I think Radtke as a money line underdog is very live.
But I saw sub at plus 750 and I said, I have to do one D gen lineup.I have to drop the D gen sub.Of course, could you go out and do things differently?Yeah.But Radtke sub at plus 750 when he's got really good grappling and his back takes are excellent and Wonderboy's 43 and like kind of looks old from the photo shoot I saw and the video I saw from himthis week.He's looking 43.The body seems to be less dense even though like yeah, he was never a jacked guy.If you know, you know what I mean.I'm going to say Radtke at plus 750.Don't overlook that submission.It's a D gen as line.I've hit D gen lines.I hit crap shot round two sub at plus 700.That was a clearer pathway though cuz it was Nick Klein, but still at big plus money here with a grappler in Radtke who hits pretty hard.
I'll say there's definitely a chance old Wonderboy gets strangled and the rear naked choke, a submission I think Radtke could lock in in this spot.I'll say Radtke by submission at plus 750 as the one bet for this one.
The main card begins with Hassan, Prochazka, and Belal Muhammad before shifting to the co-main and main event. The speaker backs Harrison to finish Nunes and picks Hokit as a live underdog against Gane.
Next fight up, it jumps us to the main card.If you guys are enjoying the show, make sure you hit the likes, make sure you subscribe.Belal Hassan knockout round one or two.This is a lock.-165 if he does not sleep Lewis Gurule, specifically in the first or second round.And he's a busted prospect already.I know.If he goes out and wins a decision, it's a letdown.Belal Hassan has some nasty hand speed and serious pop.But what he also has that really gives me confidence in him getting the stoppage is a massive reach advantage.6 in reach.And Lewis Gurule kind of that hands close to the face pressure stylist boxer wrestler live to get lit up like a mother Christmas tree from the outside.And I think we see Belal Hassan really get some big shots off.So I like Belal Hassan's chance to do damage, to land big shots.
I'm thinking he gets the knockout in the first or second round at -165.I'm in.The next one, Jiri Prochazka, Kevin Holland.Prochazka money line -155.He's live to sleep Holland, sure.But Holland's got a very good chin.Holland's only knockout loss was between rounds in the Wonderboy match some years ago.Actually, there was a fight prior to that.What was it?Yeah, or after that rather, the rib injury against the lid.I'm not even counting that though.That was That was an injury.So it's like not a guy known for chin problems.And Prochazka on the other side is literally a dynamite finisher.But this could be the fight where he shows us he can win by decision.So I'd rather just money line it at -155.Prochazka is chasing titles.Kevin Holland is talking about retiring in the next two years.So I'm trusting in a guy that seems to have elite aspirations versus someone who's just happy to have fun fights and he said that himself.
So -155 Prochazka, I think that's pretty solid.The next one, underdog Belal Muhammad.This guy's an elite kick boxer.He's 6 ft 6.He's got a 5 in height advantage.He's long.He's effective from the outside.He's got elite footwork and his takedown defense looks pretty damn good.And Kyle Daukaus is a good jiu-jitsu grappler, but like he's not really a good wrestler.His grappling on mat is solid, but the ability to get fights there, not that good.And I feel like on the feet, Bahio keeps his hands down a lot.Takes risks, but doesn't have much head movement.I wouldn't call him a slick striker.I'd call him a relatively quick striker with his ability to dart in and out of range, kind of karate-esque style, but doesn't have too much of the keeping that head off the center line rhythm.I think Yusri is going to land a lot of significant shots on the feet, stop majority of the takedowns, and I think he's a big problem for Bahio.
He's a very live underdog and at plus 130 the one bet money line Belgore.And then the next one, co-main event, ladies going after it.Amanda Nunes is 38.I thought she was washed in 2021.You're going to give me a plus 135 tag for Harrison to finish and I don't got to pick the method cuz I think she's live for ground and pound and I think she's live for a submission.Of course, she's got the neck thing going on.That's a worry, but at plus 135 I would rather go towards back in Harrison to get the stoppage as opposed to minus 185 on the money line.And then, you know, things could go awry cuz Nunes hits like a truck.I'm not saying the one bet Harrison finish is the guarantee cuz there's nothing guaranteed in this game, but it's like I'd rather be backing Kayla Harrison to beat a past her finest hour Nunes as opposed to like if
we have a prime looking Nunes, I'm actually scared for Kayla.I just don't think we will.I think Nunes is going to end up wilting to the grappling pressure.She might get subbed.She might get ground and pounded.I think we're going to see kind of like the ground and pound Cat Zingano got off years ago against Nunes or the Peña fight where she gave up and got choked out.Maybe some striking success, but as soon as Harrison gets a hold of her, game set match.And then onto the main event, Josh Hoke money line, Cyril Gane, Josh Hoke.Of course, I'm backing the incredible Hoke to win.I think he's going to take Cyril Gane down.You actually can get over 1.5 takedowns landed for Hoke it at like even money.So, you know, that was something to consider, but I got balls.I'm grabbing my nuts.
I'm going Hauk it down the center at +150 now.I got them as the underdog lock of the card.I think Josh Hauk it is live to hurt Ciryl Gane on the feet, which people are going to say I'm nuts, but Josh Hauk it's got some of the fastest hands I've seen at heavyweight.He's the only guy that I think exceeds the speed and footwork of Ciryl Gane.Gane's not used to fighting fast fighters.A lot of people Ciryl Gane has fought are slow as molasses.And I think we're going to see lightning speed Hauk it get some shots off, mix in some takedowns, wear Ciryl Gane out.And I'm telling you, Ciryl Gane, when the going gets tough, don't be surprised when he quits and taps quick.I can see the choke for Hauk it.I can see ground and pound.I really think Josh Hauk it's going to end up running game on him.
And you're going to see that Hauk it's actually the real deal.Doesn't have the build of an elite athlete, but he's got the skills of one.Heavyweight, MMA, high level, former, you know, practice squad pro football player, All-American wrestler.I think Josh Hauk it's a problem.And it's his birthday today, too.He's my birthday twin.So, of course, we got to back him at the plus money tag.29 years old.I think continuing to improve, I think he's going to look fast out there.Best wrestler Gane has fought ever.The only other wrestler he has ever really fought is Jones, and he got killed in the first round.So, I do not trust Ciryl Gane when guys bring a threat of takedowns.And Hauk it's got some fast hands with some pop.I'm going Hauk it.And I like the plus 150.I think Gane Gane getting walked down and done in here by Josh Hauk it.
The host wraps up by tying all the picks into a final degen parlay sweep. He closes with a recap of the series, a birthday sign-off, and a call for feedback and subscriptions.
And then I'm going to put it all together.This is the Degen parlay to close things out.If you went for the Degen sweep and you chose all of the one bets and you put them all in, it would be
Um, yeah, that's absolutely nuts.And the odds of that hitting, we'll see.The one bet confidence has to be there.Not impossible.Not saying blindly tail at all.Do your Bet responsibly.But like if we did pull through, when we do eventually cuz it'll happen, you would be very upset if you didn't get on game with at least a buck.So that right there is the one bet D gen sweep.This was one bet for every fight at UFC 334.I enjoyed the hell out of it.A lot of fun to come up with and I hope that you guys had a lot of fun watching it.Let me know in the comments what you thought of the new series.Let me know if you want me to keep it coming cuz I'm ready to bring it every single week.Smash the likes, subscribe, W in the comments if you got nothing to say.
Make sure you turn the post notifications on too so you don't miss a video or live stream.It's my birthday.I'm going to enjoy myself.I'll see you guys all in the next one.Good night and peace out.