George Friedman on Why the US is Stepping Back

So when you asked me the question, what are the Americans doing? They're just walking around talking. They're doing something very important. Nothing. Sticking with America now and looking perhaps at bigger picture American things. As we move somewhat away from Iran, we've got a couple of questions. They may be slightly politically slanted in different directions. You may have to just figure that out for yourself. It may be a bit obvious which way they're coming from. The first one is from a reader writes, I am attempting to follow US diplomatic maneuvers with arguably three of our most problematic nations, Russia, China and Israel. Our administration is seen repeatedly holding talks in which our counterparty walks away with something either desired action or inaction on our part, the US's part, in exchange for promises at best, promises that are never kept. Are we really being outmaneuvered that badly or. Or is this just reporting bias in the media? No, this is a very rational thing. The United States is not going to be the guarantor of all these nations. He talks to the Russians, but he's made it clear that European, the EU is now the second largest economy in the world, bigger than China. They're quite capable of dealing with this themselves if they choose to. Okay. If they choose to build a military and so on and so forth. And the idea that the Americans have to do it is obsolete given the reality of Europe. So when you take a look at the Russian situation, what is the Americans doing discussing it? If the war goes on, war goes on. Give us a call to Europe and let us know if we can have parties together again. So the same thing around the world. He is involved in these discussions. Okay? But it's not critical to the United States as it used to be. The one exception to this is China. The United States and China are having very serious talks. Obviously, when you go in and buy a house, you say, I really don't like this house, although you decided you're totally in love with it. So a negotiation is people getting up from the table and saying, this guy's so unreasonable, I can't talk to him. Then you come back to the table and talk. Because the Chinese and Americans need each other. They need each other in ways I've explained. China is the world's second largest economy, forgetting Europeans. At the moment, it is the 71st ranked in per capita income. It's a poor country and it has a massive production system that cannot be purchased, sold inside of China. China must have exports. It depends on it. And this allows just export power. Is the United States now, last week, the Europeans did something very interesting. Finally, they started developing sanctions on China exporting particularly cars. The Germans have been badly hit by lower priced, very good Chinese cars. Daimler Benz and all these other companies are hurting. So we see for the first time the Chinese facing pressure not only from the United States, but from Europe as well. Now we have to understand the idea that there could be a war between the United States and China is absurd. What would they be fighting over? How would they fight it at this distance, so on and so forth. What would be the interest? When we look at China, we look at it very differently. We're looking at Iran. It's a military issue. We're looking at Russia. It's a military issue. When we look at China, it's an economic issue. And we have to remember China is not like the Soviet Union. Soviet Union used to invade countries and occupy them or create revolutions in countries who wanted to control them. Chinese don't do that. Last week, for the first time, they're building a base in Laos because all the chaos going on to the west of them, they figure they might do that, but they don't do that. What they do is use economic influence, economic power to shape the system. Their problem is they're highly dependent on the United States. And add Europe into that thing, they would have to be selling things in the Congo, and they can't do that. So we have to understand in all case, the weakness of governments. Xi has to reach an understanding with the Americans. It's this larger market. It now also has to do something with the Europeans who've joined in. Europeans are also hoping that the Americans will do something in Europe to defend it. Okay. And the Americans have done something important. So there's been a lot of talk about the Russians invading Europe. Hybrid warfare, you know, sabotagers, stuff like that. But also possibly attacking Polish army is a massive military force, very capable. The United states also has 10,000 soldiers in Poland and in the Baltics as well. Okay. So the idea of Russia invading Europe means going to war with the United States, and that's the one thing the Russia is not going to do. Yeah, they're going to try to blow up bridges or something like that. Okay. But one of the things that's happening now is an evolution of Europe. Europe is finally facing the fact that. That they have a problem. Russia and the US Is not going to bail it out. So, yes, we talk to the Russians, we give some intelligence, we give some weapons, but we charge the Europeans for the weapons. So what Trump is trying to do and was predicted that he would do it is disengage. Not to the point of simply leaving Poland wide open, but to the point of saying to the Europeans, you want to play this game, play this game. The EU put tariffs on them, put sanctions on them. Also, our kids go to the army. We go in the army, we deploy. Your kids don't go to the army. But they criticize the United States for being militaristic. So there's this cultural thing going on between them. The Europeans have always looked down on the Americans as too quick on the draw, okay? Constantly doing this. At this point, we're living exactly the way the Europeans wanted us to do, the French in particular. Now they have to reach this understanding, and they will, because nations do what is necessary. So one of the things the United States is doing that's very important is taking troops out of Germany and putting him in Poland. Why? Germany used to be divided, and the Russians were on one side of the line and the Americans were on the other. Germany has nothing threatening it. Why do we have troops in Germany? Now the Europeans will place this as us somehow going away from what we are morally obligated to do, cape troops and. But what we really have to do is exactly what we're doing, and it's rational. So when you talk about influence, what do you want to influence and what are you going to influence it with? And this is really one of the most important questions I've said is future of Europe, okay? These people have been fighting wars for centuries with each other, okay? Now they have an interest of their own. Our European young people going to go into the army and stand watch. And the Europeans are doing everything they can to make it appear that that's an American obligation. So when you ask me the question, what are the Americans doing? They're just walking around talking. They're doing something very important. Nothing or nearly nothing. And that's not a stupid thing to do at this point. Don't forget to like and subscribe.