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Introduces the latest Bitcoin and stock market move, then explains the broader equity weakness and collapsing market breadth. The speaker argues that semiconductors, the S&P 500, and Bitcoin are tied together in a larger topping process.
Hey, what's going on everybody?This is the blockchain backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.Today we'll be taking a look over here at the Bitcoin price chart as at least while I'm recording we're a little bit green coming off of yesterday's do we call it a bloodbath over there in the United Statesstock market with the Dow Jones down 1,800 points, the S&P 500 down 334 and the Nasdaq down 1,800.They're at 6.36% yesterday for the NASDAQ.We saw semiconductors take a big plow here yesterday which of course is your big names like Micron and Nvidia.essentially the railroad of the AI trade.Now, I brought this up in Monday's video.I brought this up in markets in the morning, wrote about it in my newsletter, of course, as we hit this extreme over in here for the semiconductors.That's also right where we saw Bitcoin reverse off of its low.
Now, this has been an interesting market that we've been in for the last 5 years because we've dealt with a really crazy breadth dynamic.People may be sick of hearing that term and the reality is that's the market we've dealt with for five years and it's why crypto behaved so oddly there at the end of 2025 incapable of being able to expandinto new all-time highs for the altcoin market which is the first time that has ever happened for the altcoin market in any type of cycle.It's one of the reasons why people also thought I was absolutely nuts back in here for presenting the bare case for the cryptocurrency market to enter into a bare market.But it all comes back to it being an incredibly complicated picture.And sometimes it feels like magical unicorn fairy dust because what's happening in the stock market right now is something that has been eating away at me for really the last couple of weeks.
And I couldn't find anything else more important to talk about in my newsletter than to say, "Hey, semiconductors and S&P 500 topping."and really spent about 80% of this newsletter diving into that saying that are we about to see the popping of the S&P 500 in the United States stock market and my thoughts are that we are that the popis not too far away.discussed all of the stuff in here about how Bitcoin reached its extreme as these semiconductors were reaching their extremes and then the reversal of Bitcoin happens on the reversal of the semiconductors and saying that I'm being pretty directin saying that I think we are building a multi-deade top in the stock market and we structurally have produced the exact style of what bubble tops look like along with collapsing breath before it eventually pops.I'm at a point where I just don't see how upside could continue for the S&P 500 and that's my stand.
But elaborating in here about it being a rotating equity top, which you guys have heard me say many times here on the YouTube channel and also in here saying, however, in rotating tops, there are typically phases.And certain parts of them can be, for a lack of a better word, sketchy.And I can't help but feel it in my bones that the sketchy part could be approaching in the coming months for the stock market or at least for the S&P 500.So, as you guys know, my thoughts have been that there's an issue with breadth in the market.We watched this entire run happen in here and we watched the cryptocurrency market incapable of being able to follow along with it.Where in every past expansion, we always see crypto move with the equity market.Yet here in this rally, as you guys know, we spent a lot of time looking at why is the Russell 2000 not breaking out with it?
Why is, you know, crypto not going with it?What's happening?Why is this an S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow run?And it all came back to a collapsing of breadth in this semiconductor trade or Google's Amazon's Nvidia's Broadcom.Essentially 40% of this market got consol or essentially 40% of the S&P 500 got consolidated into the top 10 names and that figure has not been hit in nearly 100 years to have that much consolidation.So when we look to past market cycles and we say, "Hey, look, crypto always runs when we go into these expansions, yet we didn't do it here and we never ended up doing it and we're still stuck inthere to this day, then there has to be some type of thesis built on a different type of macro picture happening here to say, well, something different's going to have to play out."
And that's where I keep presenting the rotating equity top, saying that there's going to have to be this unwinding of Brent.However, what typically happens if we're going to have a top come into the S&P 500 is that there's going to be this sketchy phase in here where things get pretty volatile and essentially the market has to kind ofwake up a little bit and say, "Wait a minute, this trade is done and where all the capital is allocated and smashed into this asset class in here, the semiconductor asset class.It's going to have to try to find a home somewhere else that the breadth of the market is going to have to open."Right now, semiconductors are already down 33%.Nvidia went ahead and hit as low as 25% moving down.But as bizarre as it may sound, with the market dynamics changing in macro markets and producing this raging bubble over here in the S&P 500 and this collapsing of breadth where midcaps and small caps never participated, the crypto
market never participated.It all really consolidated into the semiconductor trade.This is really kind of a necessary phase of it to have a rotation.We spent a lot of time talking about the IGV and to me this makes the most logical sense of where the rotation takes place but also it tactically all makes sense in here and we've been tracking this veryclosely.This is the Eyesshares expanded tech software sector ETF and so for the last 3 months we've been looking at this thing in here saying hey you know watching out for something like this to come down into here beforethen trying to shift its way back up and then we can try to go for an expansion in the months after that.But it's incredible now too because we can just clearly see uh the structural playout happen throughout in here that now we're finally kind of getting this kind of scare to show up in here now.
And so I don't know today if this is going to end up being the true bottom for the IGV or if it has to go in here and we're going to kind of end the week with a littlebit more fear.the stock market didn't start getting real sketchy yesterday until the market actually opened.And so we'll just have to see how the rest of the day progresses and how the market's going to close out the weekly candle for everything.Uh but this of course, you know, produces max fear.And if we just kind of hang out in here for a little bit of time right in here, right, that would leave enough time for people to still believe, oh, the bottom of crypto is not in.We're going to go to Goblin Town.I and these are things really I've warned about for the last couple of months in here that we are going to see a return of negative sentiment at some point and we're really getting bombarded with it right now
with not only negative price action now you have elections you got people all in an uproar on both sides you got an incredibly volatile stock market with people scared you've had the Binance hack you've had everything to reallyperpetuate a lot of this fear and certainly that's returning back to the market and a lot of confusion in the market too I totally feel like I'm on this island all by myself.Like, no one has ever put together this picture that there was a problem with the breadth in the stock market.No one understood why we didn't expand.No one understands why it's necessary for the semiconductors to pop because the breadth is so collapsed and there needs to be a wakeup call that happens to the market to say that trade is done and for all thiscapital to start flowing elsewhere and all this attention to flow elsewhere.
Expands on the idea that capital is rotating out of semiconductors and into other parts of the market. The speaker compares current price action in IGV and Bitcoin to prior cycles and says the current pullback still looks normal.
But except for you guys cuz you hear me ramble about it essentially all the time.But it's kind of funny in crypto.you go on on X and it makes it seem like it's been this rager dump happening over here for Bitcoin when it hasn't.It's still really right here on top of this September level.Uh back in 2023, of course, we saw things like this as well.We saw the banking scare right there with SVB.Uh it comes down here and hits the 200day moving average in there, right?And these are all just important things.Remember, we don't break above the 50we moving average.We don't see the the breadth open up in the market, which we saw happen off the lows down in here, just like we did back in 2023 to mark our low.But the market's going to get scared.The market's going to get sketchy, right?
And like I wrote, how can we have a standard thesis for a crypto market when we have a macro market that is acting unlike anything seen for decades when every crypto cycle has behaved on a simple pattern ofmacro expansions and we're dealing with a highly complex different macro picture?Frankly, we don't see anything really different happening here in crypto than we've seen happen in every single cycle of the past when it comes to building out our bottom.But I think we're kind of entering into that phase where, you know, there's a lot of wrongfooted capital that happened down there at the lows looking for 40 to 50K.We talked all about this here in the 70s and in the 80s.There's a lot of wrongfooted capital and low conviction capital that's being forced into positions right now.And then you leave them with all these really complex narratives right now, right?
had a Binance hack, but then you see the stock market stuff happening with elections happening all over the place.And all of this was written, of course, before the election like magical unicorn fairy dust.But it takes a lot of processing and uh belief and faith, understanding of complex markets and bubbles uh to have this thought process of being like it's not going to be like 2013, 2017, and 2021.And that's okay.And it explains why 2025 didn't do what everybody hoped it had done.But what you'd be looking for is you'd be looking for that AI trade, that semiconductor trade to come to an end.And we've been following this to say, hey, we know that Bitcoin has been following along with our IGV model.It's really been the same trade all throughout in here.There's nothing in here insinuating that IGV is exploding or collapsing.
It's really just doing the thing we kind of sat there and pondered for months on whether or not this would end up showing up.And as absolutely bizarre as it sounds, there's a little level of excitement in my voice about it happening.Not because I'm like jumping for joy cuz I'm like right.Um but I am jumping for joy because it is right so far.This has been a very complex topic to try to forecast and think through and process and understand the collapsing of breadth.What elements need to happen?What order of operations do they all need to occur in?And so far, this is really exactly how it would need to go.We need an opening of breadth in the market.And that typically takes this kind of sketchy moment to show up in macro markets.And there needs to be the obvious signal to the world that whatever it is, they're all consolidating their capital in that that trade is done and that that capital needs to go find a new home because we're not
in expansionary cycles.We're in something where the breath completely collapsed and all the capital went and hung out in the exact same place.And now all that capital needs to kind of wake up and say, "Wait a minute.We we shouldn't be here anymore.Where should we go?"And that's when we're saying, "Hey, how you doing?We're over here."So definitely nothing unusual over here for Bitcoin happening in regards to price action.And I think it's being over glorified as a major dump happening in here when at least at this point right now it's really just, you know, five waves.And as shown here, it's really just back at the base of wave four currently right now.
Discusses how this cycle differs from past crypto expansions and why a slower, more complex bottoming process may be unfolding. The speaker emphasizes that breadth must unwind before the next major move higher can begin.
You know, altcoins and stuff, they're still just traversing along in here exactly as they always do.We keep kind of showing this that in past cycles, it's taken till around like the December time period before things kind of wake up and people are like, "Oh yeah, wait.I guess the bottom is in."But we're just kind of having to wait on that.And now it's kind of making sense, too, right?And if this has to keep doing this right in here and then it's going to kind of struggle out for a little while then you know we can kind of shift up right then a range builds and wetalk about these things too with XRP right like a range eventually builds throughout in here everybody gets overly excited but a range starts to form something like this right in here like if we just took time equivalents right
if all of this in here for us took you know 3 months right would that take another 3 to 6 months for something like that and that's the things we kept kind of talking about you know then youcan spend you know several months kind of traversing around building a new range in here and then after that range is built you know then you're looking of course you're looking for the true expansion which at the sametime right what would we be looking for over here we'd be looking for our true expansion to be come in at the same time and then all all things would make sense right everything would be aligned perfectly soI don't think this market is acting weird in any way um I think it's just a complex topic to wrap your head around when people really look to the models of 2013 17 and 2021 for expansions and to
know hey look there's a reason why things didn't play out like that in 2025.It was this breadth collapse and now are we about to see the breadth completely unwind and will it be a rotational play?Will it find a new home?And as we as weird as it is to see a red candle emerge over here on the S&P 500, you know, my broader perspective look says okay, we might be in it.You know, the hard thing about stocks, right?Like us crypton natives like we are used to things happening very quickly.We are used to something like, oh, if this market's going to crash, okay, it'll it'll take four days for the whole thing to play out.It doesn't work like that in stocks, right?Something like this right in here taking 15 years can be, you know, this type of bubble can be printed in crypto in one year.
So, what would take, you know, a month to transpire in the cryptocurrency market could take a whole year to transpire over there in the United States stock market.So, it's very unlikely this thing just keeps plowing straight down in here.there's a lot of levels to go down and trying to figure out, hey, are we seeing the evidence of the breadth start to really start to shift its way out the risk curve during these moments, but man, crazyuh with what's been going on in my mind for the last two weeks thinking about this stuff nonstop and then opting to make that really the entire newsletter issue and then of course that being Monday's video and thenalso Wednesday's markets in the morning.I think we're seeing the first signs.Um but of course everybody says, "Well, I want to see the green candles right now."
But it's this big process that's got to play out, right?We're really trying to see the semiconductor trade come to an end, the breadth to stop chilling out here and to say, you know what, I don't think the gains are going to be there like we're used to.And then for it to go find a new home and so far so good.So, we'll see how Friday kind of transpires and into next week.I don't see anything abnormal happening over here in the cryptocurrency market.I think the fear is over glorified in there.You know, range lows are definitely very difficult to predict, but it's having to have that bigger time frame perspective.We don't ever break through the 50week moving average and the bottom already not be in.We don't ever have the daily bread break out and not already be in.We don't come back up in here and start playing on the upside of these things after being in a bare market unless the bottom is already in.
The only thing that's not in is investor confidence, right?And that's of course what we spent really the last two months talking about.Be prepared.There will be the sentiment return.Everybody's happy golucky.Everybody's screaming new all-time highs, but that sentiment will return.I think we're kind of getting into that moment right now.But I also do feel like the first evidence of the rotating equity top theory is starting to play out in here.And it doesn't mean it happens overnight.And it doesn't mean the bottom of this stuff isn't in in here yet, but the order in which they are occurring with the semiconductors topping, the SP topping, the IGV finally giving us this pullback.These are all really the phases we be looking for to then enter into our next chapter.
Wraps up with reassurance that the market action is expected and that the broader setup still fits the rotating top thesis. The speaker shares his own positioning, then closes with weekend remarks and channel updates.
So take a deep breath everybody.It's expected to be sketchy out there in stocks, but also expect things don't go in a straight line down.When we start getting this volatile, you know, where stocks are down four and a half or 6 and 1/2% in a day, the very next day you can be up 3 and 1.5%.and it can just be absolutely extremely volatile during this.But I'm incredibly excited about where we're at.So for me, I'm practically practically all I'm over 95% capital entered into the market as you guys know at the bottom in here on the capitulation day back in February.I entered 25% entered another 25% throughout in here and then I entered 30% all throughout right in here concluding on July 1st on the very bottom.Then it's been just kind of chipping away at stuff throughout in here.Right now I am at over 95% entered.
I only had 20% of my capital remaining.So there's a small amount left uh that would be used to catch any type of like oh no candle that you know push it down into here or something like that.Uh but certainly I I won't be holding that capital to try to get new lows.That'd be insane to me.So exciting time in the market.We'll see how things transpire for the rest of today to close out the week for the stock market.But if you're out there worrying or you're falling into that fear trap or the sentiment swings that we talked about ahead of time, just kind of keeping a bigger picture perspective in here, things are still acting normal.Things are still acting normal.This is to be expected.We're trying to see the breadth unwind in here and the breadth return to the rest of the market.
And these phases of IGV, our correlated asset class, are doing precisely the structures and moves that we would anticipate and hope for for us to be able to move to the next phase.So, happy Friday.What a wild week, huh?So last week's the Binance hack.This week is the elections and then all types of volatility over here in the US stock market.But we'll see how it closes out for the week and of course we'll hit the ground running next week.So I hope that you guys are doing well.I'm always grateful that you do watch my YouTube channel.I missed you guys last week while I was in New York City for SW.But it feels good to be back and looks like I came back at just the right time.So have yourselves a wonderful weekend.And of course in that time if you get some spare time, go read my newsletter that I published at blockchainbacker.substack.com.
I do audio record all of these as well.It's got a 43 minute audio recording where I go through them at the same time.So, if you want to listen in your car, your AirPods, while you're on a walk, at the gym, there's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com.And otherwise, guys, have yourselves a wonderful weekend.Thank you so much for watching.If you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up.If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you could be notified of when I create new content and when I go live.As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser, but if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the blockchain backers got your back.
Have a good one.