# 🔥 NBA MONDAY LOCKS 🔒 | Best Player Props & Betting Picks (11/09) **Channel:** El Guru **Source:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nqkEncWtes **Transcript page:** https://www.withtranscript.ai/video/6nqkEncWtes ## Chapters - 0:00 — Intro, Slips, and Research Tools - 1:19 — Lakers-Hawks and Cavs-Hornets Picks - 6:08 — Wizards-Pistons and Injury Angles - 11:07 — Grizzlies-Raptors and Pacers-Mavericks - 15:36 — Nuggets-Rockets and Spurs-Suns - 19:38 — Warriors-Pelicans and Closing Thoughts ## Transcript **[0:00]:** IT'S TIME FOR THE NUMBER ONE RATED NBA gambling YouTube show on YouTube. HOSTED BY THE NUMBER ONE RATED HOST, ME, ELGURU. HAPPY MONDAY, EVERYBODY. WE'VE GOT EIGHT NBA games today. So, I HAVE SPENT HOURS in the lab to cook up nine different NBA slips. And yes, we did lose yesterday, BUT IT WAS ONLY OUR SECOND LOSING day of the entire season. And look, I'll never ask you guys to judge me by my winners. I only ask that you judge me by my losers because I have so few. SO, I'LL BE GOING OVER every NBA game, showing you all the picks that I've personally taken, as well as talking through my favorite leans and the betting angles that you need to be aware of before making any NBA bets today. Just please like THE VIDEO AND SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNEL. WE ARE NOT THAT FAR away from 5,000 subscribers, which would be a huge milestone. **[0:52]:** So, I appreciate all of you for subscribing. NOW, LET'S GET TO THE LOCKS. AS ALWAYS, THE RESEARCH WEBSITE we'll be using here is a completely free research website called slate.app that is spelled slate without the a. So slte.app. It is still in beta. Lot of new features coming soon, BUT I WOULD HIGHLY recommend getting early access, making an account and start using it to research your picks because it is already an incredibly useful tool and like I said, it's completely free. **[1:19]:** All right, game number one, Lakers against the Hawks. The Lakers actually get Luca back after he missed their win against Detroit. And they have the better record than Atlanta at nine and two. Yet, they're actually one and a half point underdogs on the road in Atlanta, which on the surface doesn't make a lot of sense, but I think it does. And I'll tell you why. First of all, they're primed to defend Luca very well, as they have one of the best individual defenders in the league in Dyson Daniels. The Lakers are also on the back end of a backto-back playing against an Atlanta team that plays with a lot of pace. So, tired legs against a fast-paced team. That's a bad recipe. Now, for game lines, I actually think Atlanta wins this game, but I'm not confident enough to take it myself. Instead, what I am very confident in is a twoman slip that I've cooked up from this game where leg number one is going to be Luca Donic under 34 and a half points. **[2:13]:** Like I said, Atlanta will put Dyson Daniels on him, a matchup that I like. And Luca, for as good as he's been this season, averaging over 40 points a game, has actually yet to face a team that is in the top 10 in points allowed to guards. Obviously, some of that is because every team he's faced has faced Luca Donuch, which is going to skew the numbers. But still, the best team he's faced in that category was the Clippers, who ranked 17th in points allowed TO GUARDS, WHICH WAS ACTUALLY THE LAST TIME LUCA went under this line where he only scored 23 points in that one. and Atlanta is comfortably in the top 10 in terms of points allowed to guards. He also went under against them in both of their head-to-head matchups last season, scoring 22 and then 27, but more importantly on very low volume. **[2:57]:** So, I think Atlanta is going to get the ball out of Luca's hands, make other guys beat them. Maybe they will, but it won't be because of Luca dropping 40 points again. So, I'm taking the under on Luca's points and I'm going to pair that with the over on Jaylen Johnson's points at 20 and a half. He had 30 points last game against Brooklyn in 36 minutes. And that's important because this was his first game without CJ McCollum in the starting lineup. So, that is going to open up a lot more shot volume for Johnson since we know CJ likes to put shots up. And he's replaced in the lineup by Kingston Flemings who is a much lower volume scoreer. So, Johnson is going to get the minutes. He's going to get the volume and he's gonna have the matchup here because LA has no one who can guard him. **[3:40]:** They can either put Matis Tyel on him who's too small or they can put Jake Lavy on him who's too slow. So either way, Johnson's going to be able to get buckets and I am pairing that with Luca not to get buckets at plus 222 as you can see on your screen here. One unit slip. And then I also actually have my NBA lock of the day in this one which is going to be Kingston Flemings over eight and a half points. And the reason for that is he is now over this line in four straight games. And like I said earlier, he is now in the starting lineup in place of CJ McCullum. And with that comes more minutes, 27 minutes against Brooklyn. And if you give Flemings 20 plus minutes this season, he's over in four out of five. And he's averaging over 12 points a game. **[4:24]:** So against the Lakers defense, who isn't very good to begin with, give me the over on Kingston Flemings. And I have put two units on this one as my NBA lock of the day. And then I have one more pick that I'm running from this game. I know a lot of picks here and it has to do with the Luca under and it's going to be Sandro Mamukesi over points because LIKE I SAID, I THINK Atlanta is going to be trapping doubling Luca blitzing those pick and rolls and getting the ball out of his hands and into the hands of their role guys like Sandro Mamu Kelli. which is why in that Clippers game that we talked about, Sandro had 13 points, and more importantly took 15 shots. So, he's going to be asked once again to hit open shots, attack closeouts, and get to the rim, which he should be able to do because Atlanta is a bottom five team in terms of points allowed in the **[5:13]:** paint. So, he's got a good matchup here. I'm actually going to alt his points line up to 9 and a half since the seven and a half line is at minus 132 and I want to get a little plus money action involved. And it is going to be the first leg of a threeman long shot slip that I've put together. The other two legs we'll go over here in a bit. And then one lean I have from this game is going to be on Okong Wu over one and a half threes. This is a pick that I keep giving you and he keeps cashing for us. The volume has been consistent. The Lakers are a bottom five team in terms of threes allowed to centers. So he's got a good matchup and this thing is at basically even money which doesn't make a lot of sense considering he keeps going over this line. **[5:52]:** The only reasoning I can think of is that Jock Landale should be back for this one. That's Atlanta's backup center. But to me, that doesn't impact it because Okongu is still going to get 30 to 35 minutes regardless of who's backing them up. So, give me the Okongu over threes, but that one is more of a lean. **[6:08]:** All right, next game we got the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Charlotte Hornets. And this one's got a lot of injuries as Cleveland is without a couple of roll guys and Jaylen Tyson and Sam Merrill. might be without their starting center and Jared Allen as well. Whereas Charlotte is missing Coniple, Dennis Shruder, Brandon Miller, and their starting center Musa Diabate is questionable, too. So, as a result, I love the Cavs to win this game. Their injuries they have are much less impactful than Charlottes. You could take the minus 8 and a half, but that is a lot of points. So, instead, I'm going to take the Cavs on the money line, and I've paired it with a different money line, which I'll show you later on. But for player props, I've also got a twoman same parlay for this one where leg number one is going to be Donovan Mitchell over PR. **[6:53]:** And this one becomes even lockier if Jared Allen sits because in the two games without Jared Allen this season, Mitchell is averaging 35 and a half PR a game. But it doesn't matter whether or not Allen plays because with Sam Merrill and Jaylen Tyson out, Mitchell's minutes floor is much higher as they don't have many guards in that rotation anymore. That's why he played 37 minutes against the Knicks. He finished that game with 41 PR. Obviously, there's some blowout potential to this one, but as long as we get 30 plus minutes, which I think we definitely will, Donovan is going to have an easy time going over, especially given the fact that Charlotte, because of their injuries, doesn't have many perimeter defenders left. So, give me the Donovan Mitchell PR. I've actually altered it up to 29 a half. And then I've paired it with Grayson Allen over three and a half assists. **[7:41]:** This is a plus money play and I like it because without Brandon Miller and Dennis Shruder and then Kobe White on a minutes restriction since he's still coming back from injury, Grayson is going to operate as one of their main playmakers in this game just like he did last game when Brandon Miller got injured in that second quarter and he finished that game with three assists on seven potentials. Now he gets a full game of that. His minutes are basically guaranteed to be 25 plus. And if we look at last season when Grayson Allen played at least 25 minutes, he had a hit rate on this assist line of about 60%. So the fact that we can get this thing at plus money, pair it with another plus money play in the Donovan Mitchell alted PR line of 29 a half gives us a nearly 3:1 mini longot twoman slip. **[8:24]:** I love it for that game. By the way, I would also love to see some Ton Salon lines because I think he's going to be the one who gets the start over Brandon Miller today. And I'm not sure the books have accounted for that yet. So if you see any ton salon lines on your book, because my book doesn't have any, let me know and I'll tell you what I would take in that scenario. Now, next game here, we got the Wizards against the Pistons. The Pistons will be without Jaylen Duran again. And then the Wizards might be without Anthony Davis as he's listed as questionable. And that's going to affect what I would take from a gameline because the Wizards right now are plus 10 and a half. If AD plays, I think they can cover that. If not, they've got no chance. So, let's focus on player props instead. **[9:04]:** I've put together another twoman same game parlay for this one where leg number one is going to be Trey Young under 18 and a half points because whether or not AD plays, that doesn't have that much of an effect on Trey Young scoring. What really has an effect is the presence of AJ Debansza. This season, when Debansza has played, Trey Young is under this line in four out of six games. And then he's got a brutal match up against Detroit who ranks number two in defending pick and roll ball handlers which is how Trey Young scores the majority of his points and number one in defending above the break threes which is where Trey Young scores the majority of his points. So tough matchup AJ playing I think Trey Young stays under this line scoring wise and we're going to pair that with Duncan Robinson over 17 and a half PR. **[9:50]:** I actually gave you his under yesterday and he cashes out as part of a twoman. Now we're taking the over because I think Trey Young is going to be the one guarding Duncan Robinson and he struggles in all aspects as a defender, but he really struggles with navigating offball screens and that is how Duncan Robinson scores most of his points coming off of offball screens getting a sliver of daylight and then hoisting up threes. So I think he's going to have a really nice scoring matchup and then also Washington ranks bottom five in terms of rebounds allowed and bottom five in terms of rebounds allowed to guards. So he's got a good rebounding matchup on top of that. So, we're pairing the Duncan Robinson over 17 and a half PR with the Trey Young under points and getting plus 241 odds. And then the one lean I have from this game would be Assar Thompson over 7 and a half rebounds. **[10:35]:** This one is at plus money. And you guys know I love a good plus money play. He did have his minutes cut last game against the Lakers only playing 24, but that's because the starters went down by like 25 points in the first quarter and then the bench is who made the comeback. So, the coaching staff left those guys in. That's why Assar Thompson's minutes were lower. That won't happen again against the Wizards. So, Assar should get 25 plus minutes here. And this season when he gets 25 plus minutes, he's over this line in 67% of games. So, you getting a plus money lock on this is a great value play. **[11:07]:** And then real quick before I CONTINUE, QUICK SHOUT OUT TO PICKET, which is a sports bet tracking app, not a betting app, bet tracking app. Meaning you just sync your books to Picket and Picket will automatically track all of your picks for you for completely free. It'll tell you exactly what your daily profits or losses look like and it'll let you find other people on there like myself who you can verify are profitable sports betterers and see and copy all of the picks that they take. So if you want to see for example the NFL picks that I'm running, you can follow me on Picket. NFL by the way yesterday clean sweep 3 and 0 made a lot of coin. So you can follow me there on Picket. It is a super useful app for becoming a more profitable sports gambler yourself. It is completely free to use like I said and the best part is if you download it using the code lguru elgu. **[11:56]:** They will also send you free money after you sync a book. It's either three or 100 bucks. It goes right to your Venmo PayPal. You do got to be in the US or Canada though. Other than that, no strings attached. Just a free app offering you free money as long as you use the code lguru and then sync whatever book you use. Should only take you a couple seconds. SO BIG SHOUT OUT TO PICK IT. ALL RIGHT, MOVING ON. NEXT UP, WE'VE GOT OURSELVES A MATCH UP BETWEEN THE MEMPHIS Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors. Ton of injury news here as Toronto is of course without Kawhi Leonard, but then both Scotty Barnes and Emanuel Quickley are injured. Obviously that has a huge impact on the gameline. One pick it does not have an impact on though would be Tai Jerome over points. And this line is at 21 a half. **[12:40]:** I'm actually going to alt it down to 19 and a half as part of that threeman long shot slip I told you about where Sandro Mamu Kellishes is leg number one. But the reason I like Ty Jerome points is because he is now over this line in two out of his last three games with the only miss being a blowout loss to Oklahoma City. And if Quickley and Barnes are out, there's no blowout potential. And if they're in, I still think Tai Jerome has a great match up here against a Toronto defense that yes, is good, but isn't great against pick and roll ball handlers. And other guys like Luca, for example, have had great success against them. So, Ty Jerome over points is the only pick I'm running for this game because from the Toronto side, unfortunately, with the Scotty Barnes and Quickly potentially being out, we can't really run anything there yet until we know whether **[13:24]:** or not they're playing. So, if they don't play, give me all the RJ Barrett lines. last game without those two guys in the lineup. He had 27 points, four assists, and seven rebounds and played a season high 37 minutes. So, if they're out, take the RJ Barrett overs. Next game though, we got the Indiana Pacers at the Dallas Mavericks. Hallebertton is out for Indiana and then Dallas is going to be without both Santi Alama, but more importantly, Kyrie Irving because it's the back end of a backtoback. So for game lines, I actually love the Indiana Pacers on the money line to pull off the upset because the only other game that Kyrie Irving was out for, the Mavericks lost TO THE SACRAMENTO KINGS. THE SACRAMENTO KINGS. SO EVEN THOUGH INDIANA has been very disappointing this season at 3-7, they do have Zubot back. They're completely healthy outside of Tyrese and they should be able to win this game on the road. **[14:16]:** So, I am taking the Pacers money line paired with the Cavs money line at plus 207 odds as a twoman gameline parlay. And then for player props, the only one that I'm running officially is going to be Ivika Zubach over 9 and a half points. This is now his third game back. He only got 19 minutes last game, but a large part of that was because of the foul trouble that he got into defending Nola Joic. The Mavs don't have a Joic. He'll be guarding Daniel Gaffford, so don't expect any foul trouble here, and therefore, he should get 25 plus minutes. Now, he did go under in their one head-to-head matchup this season, finishing with nine points. But last season against Dallas, he went over this line in both games, averaging 23 points a game. So, I think Zubach has another big scoring night tonight, especially with Tyrese out. **[15:05]:** And I am pairing that with something else as part of a twoman mini long shot. And then the one lean I have from this game would be Cooper Flags PA line because no Kyrie means this game should be close and I think Indiana wins it and Cooper should get 35 plus minutes here. And this season when he gets 30 plus minutes he's over this line in four out of seven games. Plus Indiana is just a good matchup for him. And he had 20 PA against them in one half because he got injured at the end of the second quarter. So in a full game Cooper Flag should be able to go over this line. **[15:36]:** And then this next game is a weird one cuz it's the Nuggets against the Rockets. Houston is an 8 and 1/2 point favorite at home, which on the surface looks too high. Denver's a good team. Eight and a half points is a lot of points to lay against a very good Denver Nuggets team. But the reason for it is that Denver played in Mexico City on Saturday. They were supposed to leave Saturday night. Their plane was having issues. They didn't get to leave until Sunday night. So, they get into Houston Monday morning. And now, as a result, their entire starting lineup is listed as questionable. So, we got to know whether or not their entire starting lineup is playing before taking any game lines or even player props because if they're out, the blowup potential basically becomes guaranteed and nobody is going to get their **[16:15]:** full minutes. So, I'll actually be live on TikTok today at 5:00 p.m. Eastern for about an hour. At that point, we should know who's playing and so I might have an additional bonus lift for you guys at that point. So, TUNE IN TO THAT. TWO GAMES LEFT though and a lot of lock still to go. Next up, we got the San Antonio Spurs against the Phoenix Suns. San Antonio has Devin Bell listed as questionable. Phoenix has Jordan Goodwin listed as questionable. San Antonio should win this game. It's an eight and a half point line, but Phoenix has been playing better recently. So, I think San Antonio wins. I don't know if they cover that spread though, so I'm just going to stay away from the game lines and instead I've got one play here that I am taking paired with the Vika Zubach as part of a **[16:56]:** twoman and it is going to be Devin Booker over assist. Now, the line's at 4 and a2, but I'm actually going to alt it up to 5 and a half because at four and a half, it's minus 154. I'd rather get the plus money at five and a half. And I think he still covers it because last season against San Antonio, he went over this line in three out of four games, averaging over six assists per game. And that only miss was when he left in the first quarter with an injury. So, if you take that game out of the equation, in the three healthy games, he averaged over eight assists a game. This is a great assist matchup for Booker as WBY doesn't like to switch out to him on the perimeter. So, he's able to draw two ones and collapse the defense and kick out to shooters. **[17:38]:** So, I love the Devin Booker assists at 5 and a half. You pair it with the Avika Zubach over 9 and a half points. It comes out to plus 388 odds and I am putting a profit boost token on that to bring it to plus 582 as a little twoman mini longot play. And then I also have one of my top three locks of the day in this game and that is Jaylen Green over 14.5 points for a lot of the same reasons I just talked about with Booker who is often going to be the one drawing the defense and getting it to guys on the perimeter like Jaylen Green who then can attack those closeouts. That is why against San Antonio he last season went over this line in both games averaging over 21 points a game. And now this season, it's still a good matchup for him because the Spurs rank bottom five in the league in defending the mid-range and bottom 10 in defending above the breakthroughs. **[18:28]:** And that combined accounts for about 40% of Jaylen Green scoring. So I'm taking the Jaylen Green over points. I'm putting two units on this thing and we are going to cash that line. And then the final pick that I am running from this game is going to be Victor Wanyyama over points which is at 27 and a half. But story of the day here, I'm going to alt it up to 29 a half and it's going to be part of that threeman slip, which I'll show you in a second. But he is over this line now in six out of his last seven games, averaging over 33 points per game during that stretch. And in his most recent head-to-head match up versus Phoenix, he had 34 points. You could take the threes here as well, which that line is at one and a half, maybe alted up to two and a half because Phoenix is bottom five in terms of threes allowed to centers. **[19:15]:** So I think WBM is going to get those up. Hopefully he makes them because that'll help us with the points line too. So we're gonna take Webby over 29 and a half points with Tai Jerome over 19 and a half points and Sandro Mamukesi over 9 and a half points as a threeman long shot slip. Only half a unit, but it's plus 800 with a profit boost token. It comes out to plus 1201. **[19:38]:** AND FOR THE LAST GAME OF THE NIGHT, WE'VE got the New Orleans Pelicans at the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are 7 and3. They're at home and they're nine and a half point favorites. There is absolutely some blowout potential to this game. Even though New Orleans, even at four and six, has been relatively competitive in most games. But I've got one pick that I love and it's actually going to be a controversial one. Steph Curry under 32 and a half PR. Now, I know what you're thinking, Guru. Are we really fading Steph Curry? Yes, just like we're fading Luka Donuch today. I know. I mean, my reputation is on the line. But listen, okay, New Orleans is a top 10 team in the league in terms of defending offball screen action. That is how Steph scores a lot of his points. They're also top 10 in defending above the breakthroughs. **[20:24]:** That is where Steph scores a lot of his points. As a result, and this was largely the case last season, too. Steph Curry only at 14 PR back in their matchup last season. So, I think they're going to do a good job of sticking with Steph Curry off those screens, trapping him when he tries to run any pick and roll ball handler action and limiting his scoring. And then on the rebounding side, New Orleans is actually number one in terms of rebounds allowed to guards, which is why we're taking the under 32 and a half PR as one of my top three locks. Two units on that one. You just got to trust me. Hopefully, it's a blowout. That would help us even more. Now, if it's not a blowout, one lean that I like from this game would definitely be Jeremiah Fear's over 18 and a half PR. **[21:06]:** I keep giving you Jeremiah Fear's overs. He keeps cashing us out. He is now over this line in five out of his last six games, averaging 22.7 PR a game during that stretch. And Golden State is a good match up for him. I mean, they're bottom five in transition defense. They're bottom 10 in rebounds allowed to guards. And last season against Golden State in the games that he actually started, he was over this line in both games, averaging over 22 PR a game. So the only miss was when he came off the bench and only played 21 minutes. Now he's a starter. Should be able to go over here again as long as the game is not a blowout, which I'm not guaranteeing it's not going to be. That's why I'm staying away. BUT THAT IS IT. I appreciate you guys watching the video. Sorry about the late post yesterday and the no stream last night. **[21:50]:** We'll be back on Twitch tonight, but we'll also be live on Tik Tok around 5:00 PM Eastern time. So, go check us out.