# I Ran 500,000 WW2 Simulations to See if Germany Could Win

**Channel:** RealityMargin
**Source:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pu6C4U4aJ8
**Transcript page:** https://www.withtranscript.ai/video/9pu6C4U4aJ8

## Chapters

- 0:00 — Setting Up the Alternate War
- 6:33 — Britain's Decision Shapes the War
- 13:06 — The Eastern Front and America's Role
- 21:07 — Testing Key Turning Points

## Transcript

**[0:00]:** This is Europe in 1950, in a world where Germany won the Second World War. And it's one of half a million. I simulated the whole war from 1939 to 1950, 500,000 times. Built on the real armies, the real factories, and the real oil. Germany won 7,188 times, about one war in 70. Almost two out of three of those wins were decided in the same room, and it wasn't on a battlefield. And the most famous battle of the war? In the simulation, it barely changed Germany's chances. May 1940. A traffic jam more than 100 km long is crawling through a forest in Belgium, and it's Germany's entire plan. If Allied bombers catch it here, it dies in the trees. From what historians write about this campaign, I gave France about one chance in four of stopping it. In almost 138,000 wars, Germany never gets past France.

**[1:01]:** And it doesn't win a single one of them. Go back to Munich, November 1923, where every one of these wars almost didn't happen. A former army corporal named Adolf Hitler is marching through the city with about 2,000 men to seize power. Police block the street. Shots ring out. The man marching arm in arm with Hitler is shot dead beside him. A little to one side, and there might have been no Hitler and no war to simulate. There's no wheel for that moment in the simulation, but there could have been. Men like these were marching because Germany was furious. Five years earlier, it had lost the First World War. The treaty signed at Versailles capped its army at 100,000 men, with no tanks and no air force, and made it pay for the damage of the war. And in 1923, its money died. By November, one American dollar cost 4.2 trillion marks.

**[1:55]:** The coup fails. Hitler is sentenced to five years, and he's out before Christmas. In prison, he writes his plan, a book called Mein Kampf. Living space in the East, a war against the Soviet Union, and at its core, hatred of the Jews. For years, almost nobody listens. In 1928, the Nazis win under 3% of the vote. Then the Great Depression hits. By 1932, 6 million Germans are out of work and that July, the Nazis win 37%, the biggest party in Germany. Even then, he never wins a majority. Conservative politicians talk the old president, Hindenburg, into making Hitler chancellor. They think they can control him. Four weeks later, the parliament building burns. The Nazis blame the communists and emergency decrees suspend basic rights. Within a year and a half, every other party is banned. Rivals inside his own party have been murdered. Hindenburg is dead and Hitler is dictator.

**[2:55]:** The persecution starts at once. Within two months, Dachau opens, the first regular concentration camp. By 1935, Germany's Jews have been stripped of their citizenship. Then he breaks the treaty openly, one step at a time, and watches who reacts. 1935, conscription and an air force. 1936, German troops march into the Rhineland, the region next to France that was supposed to stay free of soldiers. France has the stronger army. It does nothing. Hitler later called the 48 hours after the march the most nerve-racking of his life. 1938, Austria absorbed without a shot. Then the border regions of Czechoslovakia handed over by Britain and France at Munich for a promise of peace. Britain's foreign secretary through these years is a man called Lord Halifax. Remember that name. In November, in one night of organized violence, synagogues are burned across Germany and about 30,000 Jewish men are sent to camps.

**[3:54]:** Four months later, Germany takes the rest of Czechoslovakia anyway. Then the move that sets the board. In August 1939, Hitler and Stalin, sworn enemies, make a pact. In public, they won't attack each other. In secret, they split Eastern Europe between them, starting with Poland. On the 1st of September, Germany invades Poland. Two days later, Britain and France declare war. And this is where the simulation starts. All half a million wars begin from this exact moment. So, what is one of these wars? Each dot is the whole war, played out step-by-step from here to 1950. Armies, factories, and oil carry forward. Run short of oil, and your armies get weaker every half year. Occupy half of Russia, and it costs you men every half year. Along the way, there are about 20 turning points where history really could have gone either way. For each one, I set the odds from what historians write, and wrote every number down with my reasons and sources.

**[4:57]:** They're all in the description. And Germany only wins if in 1950, it still rules the continent. Nobody is fighting it on land in Europe, and it hasn't surrendered. That's a generous definition, so I'll show you exactly what kind of win each one was. First turning point. Does the West attack while Germany's back is turned? Most of the German army, and all of its tanks, are in Poland. On the French border, by the count of one of Hitler's own generals, 23 German divisions face about 110 French and British ones. France does attack, sort of. French troops cross into Germany's Saar region, advance about 8 km, and stop. A few weeks later, they go back. After the war, that same general said Germany only survived 1939 because those divisions never really attacked. On the wheel, a real Western attack gets 8% and if it comes, a little under even odds of breaking Germany before it's ready.

**[6:01]:** In almost 18,000 wars, the attack comes and works, and Germany is beaten before its tanks ever reach France. The shortest Second World War is on the board. Everywhere else, the real thing happens. Poland falls in 5 weeks, attacked by Germany from the west and by the Soviet Union from the east. Then, for 7 months, almost nothing happens in the west. The British call it the Phoney War. This is the war we'll follow, war number 2,673.

**[6:33]:** I'm calling it the Halifax War. You'll see why. It's one of Germany's wins, and it took the most common winning road of all. 10th of May, 1940. Germany invades the Netherlands and Belgium, and the best British and French armies rush north to meet it. That's exactly what Germany wanted. The real blow is coming further south through the Ardennes, a forest France thought was too thick for an army of tanks. This is the traffic jam from the start. French reconnaissance pilots did spot it. Their warnings weren't acted on in time. On the 13th of May, German troops cross the River Meuse at Sedan under waves of dive bombers. A week later, German tanks reach the English Channel. The best Allied armies are trapped in the north, cut off from the rest of France. That was the wheel from the start, three in four, France falls. In the other 120,000 wars, it doesn't.

**[7:30]:** The breakthrough is stopped or bogs down into trenches like 1914, and Germany is stuck fighting France and Britain, and in time, America, while a naval blockade strangles its fuel. Germany wins none of those wars, not one. Everywhere else, the best Allied armies are surrounded. The British army and a large part of the French is pinned against the sea at Dunkirk. On the 24th of May, German tanks are close, and they stop. Hitler and his generals want to rest the tanks and let the air force finish the job. For about 3 days, the trap stays open. Over 9 days, warships, ferries, and hundreds of small civilian boats lift about 338,000 soldiers out of Dunkirk. One of them is a private motor yacht called the Sundowner, built for about 20 people. Her owner is 66-year-old Charles Lightoller, the most senior officer to survive the Titanic. He brings home about 130 soldiers.

**[8:31]:** Most of Britain's army gets home. But it was close. On the wheel, the British army is captured three times in 10. That happens in about 108,000 wars, and the Halifax war is one of them. The trap closes in time, and most of Britain's army ends up in German prison camps. France signs an armistice in the same railway carriage where Germany signed the armistice that ended the First World War. Hitler had it brought out of a museum for the occasion. Now Britain is alone, and what it does next decides more German wins than any battle in this war. It's decided in a single room. Go back to the 26th of May with the army still trapped on the beaches. In the war cabinet, the foreign secretary, Lord Halifax, the same man from the Munich years, makes an argument that isn't crazy at all. Ask Mussolini's Italy to find out what terms Hitler would offer while Britain still has something to bargain with.

**[9:26]:** Winston Churchill has been prime minister for barely 2 weeks. He's against it. The war cabinet is five men: Churchill, Halifax, the former prime minister Neville Chamberlain, and two labor leaders, Clement Attlee and Arthur Greenwood. For 3 days, they argue. On the 27th, Halifax even talks of resigning, which could have brought down Churchill's new government. On the 28th, Churchill goes around them. He calls in the wider group of ministers, about 25 of them, and tells them Britain will fight on, whatever happens at Dunkirk. One minister's diary records his words. If Britain's long story is to end, let it end only when each of them lies on the ground choking in his own blood. They cheer him. Halifax has lost. In real history, that's that. In the simulation, it's a wheel and its odds depend on Dunkirk. With the army home, peace gets about 7%. With the army captured, 30.

**[10:25]:** In the wars where the army is lost, the argument comes back in June and Halifax has a far better case. No army and a German invasion expected any week. And in the Halifax war, the wheel lands on peace. Halifax gets his deal. That's the name. Across the board, Britain makes a deal in about 50,000 wars and those 50,000 wars produce almost two out of every three German wins. That's what I meant at the start. Not a battlefield, a meeting room in London. Everywhere else, Churchill wins the argument. But those wars aren't over yet. Germany still has two ways to force Britain out. Invade it or starve it. To invade, Germany first needs the sky. Summer 1940, the Battle of Britain. The Luftwaffe has more planes, but Britain has radar. A chain of towers along the coast that sees German formations while they're still over France and a control system that sends fighters exactly where they're needed.

**[11:27]:** Germany's chance of winning the air, about one in seven. Then Germany makes a choice that helps Britain. In early September, with the RAF's airfields badly battered, the Luftwaffe switches to bombing London. The Blitz will kill tens of thousands of civilians over the next eight months, but the airfields get time to recover. On the 15th of September, the Luftwaffe's biggest daylight raids are beaten off. Two days later, Hitler postpones the invasion. And even with the sky, Germany has to cross the channel. Its invasion plan, Sea Lion, used river barges, many without engines, towed across the sea against the biggest navy in the world. In 1974, Britain's military academy at Sandhurst played it as a war game judged by veterans from both sides. The Germans landed, the Navy cut them off, and the invasion collapsed. So, on the wheel, with the sky, one in five. Without it, two in a hundred.

**[12:24]:** Sea Lion succeeds in about 15,000 wars, and Britain is occupied. About 1,600 of those end as German wins. The other way is slower, the U-boats. Britain imports most of its oil and much of its food by sea. For much of 1942, German submarines were sinking ships faster than they could be built. Then, code-breaking, convoys, and long-range aircraft turned it around. On the wheel, the U-boats force Britain to terms about six times in a hundred, and Germany goes on to win about 400 of those wars. Now, watch the board. These are all the wars where Britain stays in the fight, whatever Germany tries. Almost 280,000.

**[13:06]:** Germany wins only 570 of them. One way or another, in 92% of all German wins, Britain left the war. Here's every road so far as a tree. The thicker the branch, the more wars took it. Look how thin Germany's side already is. The Halifax war is far down one of those thin branches. With Britain out, could Germany get the oil of the Middle East? Not by force. Those oil fields were run by Britain, and taking them would mean war with Britain again. But, through the peace deal, or through friendly governments like the pro-German one that seized power in Iraq in 1941, maybe. About one chance in three. In our war, it doesn't happen. But, Hitler now has what he always wanted, a free hand in the East. 22nd of June, 1941. About 3 million German soldiers, with hundreds of thousands more from Germany's allies, invade the Soviet Union along a front more than 2,000 km long.

**[14:03]:** The largest invasion in history. In almost every war, Hitler does it. It's the reason he wanted the war at all. And in the few wars where he waits, that war can still start later, from either side. The first months are a catastrophe for the Soviets. Whole armies are surrounded. Near Kiev alone, the Germans claim more than 600,000 prisoners. In October, the autumn rain turns the roads to mud. On the 7th of November, with the Germans closing in, Stalin holds the usual parade in Red Square, and the soldiers march straight off the square to the front. By early December, German troops are less than 30 km from the Kremlin. Then, the deep cold sets in. Fresh Soviet divisions arrive from the Far East, and the attack stops. So, does Moscow fall? With Britain still fighting, one chance in eight. With Britain out and all those extra divisions, planes, and fuel in the East, one in four.

**[14:55]:** That's London paying off again. In the Halifax war, Moscow falls. And here's the part most what if stories skip. When Moscow falls, does the Soviet Union give up? Take a guess before I show you. It falls in about 50,000 wars. In about nine of every 10, the Soviet Union never signs a deal. Why? Because in 1941, the Soviets moved about 1,500 factories east on trains and rebuilt them, sometimes in the open snow. Because they could replace their losses in a way Germany never could. And because holding all that land meant fighting partisans and guarding thousands of kilometers of railway every single day. There's one more wheel in the East. Japan could have attacked the Soviet Union from the other side. On the wheel, about one chance in 12. In real history, it turns south toward the oil of Southeast Asia, and that meant one thing, America.

**[15:48]:** 7th of December, 1941. Japan attacks the American fleet at Pearl Harbor. Now, America is at war with Japan, but not with Germany. Four days later, Hitler fixes that himself. He declares war on the United States. America was already arming Britain, and its warships were already trading shots with U-boats in the Atlantic. Hitler reckoned he was at war with America anyway, and he badly underestimated it. With Britain still fighting, that declaration is very likely. But with Britain out of the war, it's a different decision. I made it a coin flip and across the board, that's how it lands, about half the time. In our war, he doesn't declare. So, would America go after Germany anyway? With Britain gone, Roosevelt has no ally in Europe and nowhere to fight from. One chance in five. In our war, America stays out of Europe and fights Japan. In the Pacific, the next wheel is Midway.

**[16:39]:** In a matter of minutes, American dive bombers set three Japanese aircraft carriers ablaze and they wreck a fourth late that afternoon. In three wars out of 10, Japan wins there instead and America's war in Europe is held back by a year. What happens to Japan? The simulation doesn't play the Pacific to the end, but with America's whole strength pointed at Japan and the atomic bomb coming in 1945, it's very hard to see Japan's empire surviving, even in a world where Germany wins in Europe. And here's what America means for Germany. In about 400,000 wars, America ends up at war with Germany. How many of those does Germany win? Guess. Seven. Seven wars out of 400,000. With America's factories against it and from 1945, the atomic bomb, Germany almost never makes it to 1950. Now, our war comes down to one question. Will the Soviet Union keep fighting?

**[17:34]:** In 1942, Germany goes for oil. Its armies drive toward the Caucasus, where most of the Soviet Union's oil came from. In real history, they reached the first oil town, Maikop, and found the wells wrecked. They never reached the biggest fields at Grozny and Baku. And a whole German army was surrounded at Stalingrad. In July 1943, comes Germany's last great summer offensive in the east at Kursk, straight into Soviet defenses dug for months, layer after layer. It fails and from then on, the Red Army moves west. Germany wins there in fewer than one war in five. Fuel is Germany's weak spot in every war on this board. Without the oil of the Caucasus or the Middle East, it runs down every half year and the army's slow. Our war never got either. Its fuel is running down and time is against it. For the Soviet Union to stop, it doesn't have to be crushed.

**[18:30]:** It has to decide that a deal is better than more war. Every half year there's a chance it signs an armistice. That chance goes up when Moscow has fallen or the Caucasus oil is lost and down when the Soviets are winning. And like Britain's peace, a deal with Stalin can break. In over 4,000 wars, the Soviet Union signs then comes back in. It's five times as likely when Britain or America is fighting Germany again. In our war, it happens in 1943. The Soviet Union signs an armistice and stops fighting with Germany keeping the land it has taken. And in our war, it never comes back. Now look at everything else. In every war where the Soviet Union fought on, Germany doesn't win. Almost 74,000 more dots. That's how the real war went. In June 1944, two things happened within weeks. In the west, D-Day. The allies land in Normandy.

**[19:31]:** In the east, a far bigger offensive, Operation Bagration, destroys a whole German army group in Belarus. By late April 1945, the Red Army is fighting street by street in Berlin. On the 30th, Hitler kills himself in his bunker. On the 8th of May, Germany surrenders. In August, after two atomic bombs, Japan surrenders, too. The war has killed tens of millions of people. Back on the board, even this deep, Germany can still lose. In about 2,300 wars, Germany got through every turning point. France fell, Britain left, the Soviet Union stopped. And it still lost. Almost every time the same way. America was at war with Germany and from the second half of 1945, its atomic bombs fell on Germany. The bomb was first built for fear of Germany, after all. So, here's the end of the board. 6,618 wars made it all the way down Germany's main road.

**[20:37]:** Plus, 570 that won with Britain never leaving the war. 7,188, about 1 in 70. And the other 493,000 or so? About two in three end the way the real war did. Allied armies reach Germany from the east, the west, or both. Almost one in three end with America's atomic bomb. And about 16,000 are still going in 1950.

**[21:07]:** Mostly, the Soviet Union and Germany grinding on alone. That's the board. But, I wasn't done. Next, I started changing history on purpose, one turning point at a time. And what happened with D-Day surprised me most. Before the experiments, a confession. My first version gave Germany about 4%. When I checked it, I found mistakes in both directions. Some were too kind to Germany. A peace deal with Britain or with Stalin could never break. Running out of fuel barely hurt. And in some wars, America never got its chance to join in. And one was too harsh. The war moved far too fast. So, I made the model replay the real war with every turning point forced the way it really went. It has to end with Germany beaten in the first half of 1945. And now it does. With all that fixed, Germany's chance settled at about a third of my first version.

**[22:02]:** Now, the part I wanted to see most. What if we force just one turning point to go Germany's way every time and run the war again 100,000 times? Which one would you pick? Dunkirk? London? Moscow? Pick one now. Normally, Germany wins about 1 and 1/2% of the time. Force France to fall? About 2%. It barely moves because France was likely to fall anyway. Force the British Army to be captured at Dunkirk? Just under 2 and 1/2. Force Moscow to fall? Still under three. Force Germany to take the Caucasus oil or Japan to attack the Soviet Union? Three and 1/2 at most. Force Britain to make peace in 1940? Six and 1/2. And the biggest of all, force a successful invasion of Britain. 8%. More than five times Germany's normal chance. And still, in 92 wars out of 100, Germany doesn't win. Why is an invasion worth more than a peace deal?

**[23:05]:** Because a Britain that made peace can change its mind and come back. An occupied Britain can't. But an invasion almost never works. A deal in London happens more than three times as often. That's why most of Germany's wins still come from that room. And D-Day? The battle many people think won the war? Force it to fail and run the war again. What do you think happens? 1.46%. Out of 100,000 wars, it turned exactly one into a German win. Why? Because by June 1944, the war was being decided in the East. Remember Bagration? The Red Army was already on its way west. A failed D-Day would most likely change when the war ends and how much of Europe the Red Army ends up holding. In the simulation, it doesn't change who wins. And what if my odds are wrong? I ran the whole thing again with every turning point tilted toward Germany.

**[24:01]:** And again with everyone tilted against it. Tilted against? About one war in 700. Tilted toward? About 8%. So even if I've been unfair to Germany at every single turning point, about 92 wars in 100 still end without a German win. So what do Germany's wins actually look like? First, there's no single way to win. The wins took over a thousand different roads and more than 450 of those roads happened exactly once. But, they share two things. In every single win, the Soviet Union stopped fighting, or Germany never fought it at all. And in 92% Britain left the war. Almost nine in 10 are the clean kind. In 1950, nobody is at war with Germany at all. In about 700, Britain is still fighting in 1950. It just can't get back onto the continent. And in just seven, it's a cold war with America. The quickest wins look the strangest.

**[24:59]:** In about 270, the war in Europe is basically over in 1940. Britain is out, and Germany never fights the Soviet Union, not even years later. For that, Hitler has to give up the war he planned since that prison cell, which is why it's rare. The longest wins run the other way. In one of them, Moscow falls in 1941, and the Soviet Union still fights on until 1949. And in about one war in 250, Germany builds an atomic bomb of its own. And in war number 172, the Luftwaffe wins the sky. German troops land in England and hold on. Britain is occupied, Moscow falls, and by 1943, the Soviet Union has signed an armistice. The novel version of this war, and it really happened on this board, and the Halifax war took the most common winning road of all. Here it is, start to finish. 1940, the British army is captured, and Britain makes peace.

**[25:56]:** 1941, Moscow falls. Pearl Harbor, and Hitler stays out of America's war. 1943, the Soviet Union signs and never comes back. And in 1950, this. That road, every turn in that order. Out of half a million wars, it happened 216 times. So, back to the map from the start. Now you know what it took. Britain out of the war almost every time. The Soviet Union beaten into a deal or never fought. America kept out of the war in Europe in all but seven. And it's worth being clear about what that map means. In the real war, the one Germany lost, about 6 million Jews were murdered in the Holocaust. Nazi plans for the East went further, starving, deporting, or killing tens of millions of people to clear the land for German settlers. In every one of these wins, nothing stops those plans. What happens after 1950?

**[26:56]:** I didn't simulate it. A Germany holding down a continent of hostile, occupied people, fighting partisans with an America across the ocean that now has the atomic bomb. I don't know how long that lasts. Nobody does. Every odds number in this video is my judgment, and they're all in the description with my reasons and sources, so you can check every one. If you could change one turning point, which would it be? Tell me in the comments. Half a million wars, Germany won about one in 70. And almost two out of three of those wins weren't decided by a battle. They were decided by a few days of arguing in a room in London in 1940.