# 65년차 투자 거장, 래리 윌리엄스가 포착한 코스피의 숨은 기회 | 글로벌초대석 EP.12

**Channel:** 지식인사이드
**Source:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0hJd_zg-mc
**Transcript page:** https://www.withtranscript.ai/video/K0hJd_zg-mc

## Chapters

- 0:00 — Korean Market Crash Warning Signs
- 0:53 — Trading Calmly Through Market Cycles
- 7:45 — AI Bubble Comparisons And Bear Markets
- 14:38 — Finding Value And Timing Trades
- 22:04 — Lessons From Mistakes And Panic

## Transcript

**[0:00] Speaker A:** For example, the Korean stock market hit an all-time high just 4 months ago and a lot of it lost momentum these days. Do you think there are signs before crashes like these happen?

**[0:10] Speaker B:** Sure, and they're clearly there. Your market is very responsible to crude oil. Crude oil leads your market by about a month and a half, 2 months. Whatever crude oil is going to be doing in terms of where we are right here, right now. I think your market is going to start to get strong again around the end of middle of November, the first of December. Try to get an exact date for it. December 7th, then you're going to see a nice rally starting in the market. Still have

**[0:53] Speaker A:** Thank you for agreeing to be on our show. It's a pleasure. You've been watching the market for 60 years. So, it's safe to say that you've experienced all the crashes and the burns and the falls and the crises, right? What's the first thing you do when you wake up in the morning? Do you look at the charts? What's your go-to habit?

**[1:12] Speaker B:** Well, habitually, what it it's dependent as I was younger and as I'm older now. So, that's part of it. When I was younger, I was a much more aggressive trader. I thought every tick mattered. I wake up and I have a cup of coffee. Yeah, at my age, I'm 84 years old. I need something to jump-start me in the morning so I can get right into it. But actually, I don't look at the markets like so many people do. I'm like, "Oh, what's going on today?" I have my positions. I manage my positions and that's it. It's they're going to win or they're going to lose and I just need to manage a trade. So, I don't think there's very much money to be made in short-term trading. It's a waste of time, I think, if you want to make substantial money. There's lower-hanging fruit.

**[1:53] Speaker B:** There's better places to do it.

**[1:54] Speaker A:** Right. So, in regards to that, there's so many noise these days. So, how do you separate the noise from the signals that actually matter? That's indicative of real change.

**[2:06] Speaker B:** Well, first of all, I I don't watch television. You know, I don't listen to radio. So, I I don't have any external stuff happening in my life. I have a couple friends in the market that will maybe contact each other occasionally, not often. But, I really I try to have less bombardment of stuff coming in. I have my theories how the market works, right or wrong. This is what I should do, this is how markets work, and I just follow the theory. And I would rather do that than, "Oh, this person says this, says that, that newspaper says that." I have my indicators. And and back to your point about emotions, when you make emotional decisions, they're not good decisions. So, whatever you can do to remove yourself from emotions, and I have some thoughts on that, you will become a better trader, a better investor.

**[2:52] Speaker B:** Emotional people do crazy things. So, I don't want to do crazy things, not with my money. If you follow what is good, good will follow. And that's the way I approach it.

**[3:01] Speaker A:** Right. So, I think it's important to keep that mentality of calm, especially in this market and in this day and age. And there's so much volatility in the market, and I don't know if you follow the Korean stock market, but it's been a roller coaster. I don't know how familiar you are with the market.

**[3:19] Speaker B:** I'm very familiar with your market. I always always wanted to come to Korea to show you guys and girls, this is what moves your market. One of the simplest markets in the world to trade. It's so cyclical, driven by some fundamental forces.

**[3:35] Speaker A:** Right. So, you mentioned about the fundamentals. You have your theory, you have your indicators. There are a lot of highs. Like, for example, the Korean stock market hit an all-time high just 4 months ago, and a lot of it lost momentum these days. And now we have the news with big tech stocks falling. Now, that's implicated in the market as well. Do you think, in terms to the fundamentals and your theories, do you think there are signs before crashes like these happen that you can spot in advance?

**[4:02] Speaker B:** Sure. I can't always spot them, by the way. But, are there signs You know, we can always go back afterwards. Oh, yeah, there was this sign or that sign. But, but there are signs that happen before crashes, and they're clearly there. I don't know your market is intimate as I know ours because I've been trading ours for 60 some years, 65 years, whatever. So, I know that market a little bit better. But, yeah, clearly there are things that influence your market, fundamental things, and there are some tip-offs what is going to happen in your market based on the price of crude oil. Your market is very responsible to crude oil. That's just one input. But, yeah, there are things that absolutely affect the top of the market. Crude oil leads your market by about a month and a half, 2 months, whatever crude oil is going to be doing.

**[4:45] Speaker B:** Kospi is going to follow it. And look when crude oil topped out, and then what happened shortly thereafter, about 10 weeks after? The Kospi topped out. So, was there any indication? Yeah, sure. Cyclically speaking, there are lots of cycles. I'd written to some people in Korea about that that were also saying, "We have a significant high in Korea. We've got to be very careful this market. Mid-year, this market is going to be in trouble." And then, of course, it was. But, the cycle, I think is very predictive.

**[5:10] Speaker A:** Mhm. Right. So, do you think right now the Korean market is going through a correction, or do you think it's still very risky?

**[5:19] Speaker B:** Well, markets are always going through a correction of one sort or another. But, in terms of I'm looking at my chart right now, so I can guess it's right up-to-date for you. In terms of where we are right here, right now, I think your market is going to start to get strong again around the end of middle of November, 1st of December. Then, you're going to see a nice rally starting in your market. You still have A lot of damage was done, but uh if I had to shoot for a date, it would be the 1st week of December, I guess. Uh we're going to see your market start to move back to the upside until February, middle of February, something like that.

**[5:50] Speaker A:** Is that according to your indicator?

**[5:52] Speaker B:** That's according to cycles. And cycles are interesting because they're just look at how things traded in the past and find the pattern of that. So, they're not a political bias, they're not emotional, it's not some snarky indicator somebody developed, or it's an opinion that somebody had. This is how markets have actually traded. That's what they've done and we can decipher that path. It's a little different for each market and say, "Most likely, the best bet is to expect a low Try to get an exact date for it, December 7th, somewhere in that time period." Okay, I'm not going to call it to the day, but yeah, the first week of December, you definitely want If you're short, you want to be out of your short positions. Look to be long in the market.

**[6:28] Speaker A:** So, let's talk about the cycles that you mentioned. Um we are in this midst of this great change driven by the big tech companies and the AI companies. Where are we in that cycle, do you think?

**[6:42] Speaker B:** Well, I'm not certain that anybody really knows where we are exactly in that cycle because it's not a cycle we we haven't seen a great influence of going to AI before, but we have seen cyclical changes. When I first started started trading in 1960s, there were one type of stock were in favor, then they're out of favor. The stock we traded in 1960s, major big companies, they don't even exist anymore. They're not in the Dow Jones average anymore. So, we've seen this turnover, new investment vehicles, and that's where we're going now. The question is is this current wave that we're in, wave that can last, or is it all over? And you're going to get a hundred different opinions of that. My opinion is the wave is not over yet. It will be probably January, maybe February 2008. We still have some time to go, but these companies The The big thing why the stocks go up cuz they make money.

**[7:34] Speaker B:** As long as these companies can show earnings, show profits, then it's bullish. We continue to expect growth in the marketplace. Once we see that start to subside, then we're going to have problems.

**[7:45] Speaker A:** Okay. So, I do want to ask a question about the Korean stock market. I know you're not as familiar, but we do want to touch upon it because it's a very interesting things are happening in the market where Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for up to 70% of the cost fees gained this year. So, when an index is really a bet on two major memory chip makers, Does your cycle analysis still work on the index?

**[8:11] Speaker B:** Well, yeah. So, you you can do a cyclical analysis of the Cosby, and that's going to be easier because it's an average. It's easier to get what the average of 200 people who are going to vote for than just find one person what they're going to vote for. So, those stocks are the driving stocks in the Cosby. Okay, well, let's just take a look at it while we're talking. Program on We'll just take a look and see what it looks like. I can't tell you. It's come down now. It probably needs to buy. Let's just find out right here right now. So, on a very shorter term basis, I would expect the market to rally up until the end of this month and end of December end of the year. I think we're still positive on the market. I don't see any real problems. Uh

**[8:50] Speaker A:** So, there aren't really warning signs for Samsung or SK Hynix yet?

**[8:55] Speaker B:** No, in fact, you know, if I had to give you a projection, I'd say we're at a low now.

**[9:00] Speaker A:** We're at a low now. Okay.

**[9:02] Speaker B:** Yeah, we've been coming down, right? And if you buy high, you're probably going to buy at a top. So, we're So, we're in the area below in the marketplace, and we're going to see another buy in probably the middle of March next year and go up into a peak in August. So, between now and August, I'm not as worried about your market as maybe a lot of people are. I I don't think that There's been a real strong 5-year cycle in your market. I don't know if you know that or not, but that's been probably the strongest cycle in the market. Yeah, I think you're going to see the market continue going up until the end of the year. Like again next March March April another buy point.

**[9:34] Speaker A:** Until 2028, we don't have a lot to worry about.

**[9:38] Speaker B:** Well, I could be wrong, so I may be wrong a lot. But, at this point, no. My cycle projections, which I feel confident, say that we're still in a bull market. Years ending in seven, like 1987, 1997, 2007, tend to have a decline in the middle of the year. 1957 didn't, but probably see something like that. They'll scare the heck out of everybody. But, in terms of the overall trend of this market, I think the prevayers of pessimism will be proven wrong again, and um the long-term trend is still up.

**[10:09] Speaker A:** That That's good to know. Right, so there are a lot of comparisons to the dot-com bubble, right? Whether the AI is it in the bubble phase or do we still have lots of ways to go? You've just made your stance very clear, but do you see anything like sort of the similarities? Do you do you get why people compare it to the dot-com bubble?

**[10:28] Speaker B:** Yeah, cuz they don't know what they're talking about. The dot-com bubble, nobody was making money. None of those companies were were producing anything. It was a dream. So, of course, it blew up. There were no fundamentals to back it. So, at some point we will run out of fundamentals or good earnings for this wave of the market that we're in, but we're not there yet. Companies are still producing profits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the big market you're going to follow us essentially. It's still in an undervalued zone. There's still growth in the world. So, I don't think it's fair to say, "Well, this is like the dot-com bubble." Because of the totally different economics going on.

**[11:03] Speaker A:** Right, that's true. But there are still concerns that compared to the like in the backdrop of this massive spending, not producing as much gains. Like what do you have? What are your opinions on that? The big AI companies.

**[11:17] Speaker B:** When I measure the cycles of them, they're still positive. The cycles for the stock market are still positive. There's no change. You know, you've had a big decline in the market, but you've seen big declines in the market before and it came back. So, is this time going to be radically different? No, it's not the end of the world. All these Cassandras, the doom and gloom crowd out there, forget them. There there have been like eight major bear markets in my 65 years of trading, right? So, the odds of a of a major bear market happening are really pretty slim.

**[11:48] Speaker A:** That's that's very comforting to know.

**[11:50] Speaker B:** Look, I have my degree in journalism. I started as a writer and I know what I learned in school journalism is that if it bleeds, it leads. People love negative news because we feel better Oh, we're doing better than that poor guy down there. So, it makes you feel good to read about somebody else's problems in life. And the media is filled full of negative news and we as individuals, me included, we all have a a cognitive bearish bias. We like bad news. So, we like but in the market and in the market's been an uptrend as long as it's been trading. So, there are times to be bearish. Clearly. I will most likely be very bearish in late 2028. But right here right now? No. I've look I've been bearish. I made my first really big killing on the bear side of the market.

**[12:33] Speaker A:** Oh, mhm.

**[12:34] Speaker B:** So, even if you're bearish, you have to be positive about being bearish. Okay? You can't be really bearish, right? You have to take that into consideration. But what whatever path you're on, whether it's your marriage, your business, or athletic event, you have to be positive about the outcome. But the long-term trend of the market, the market indexes has been up. You're bucking a huge trend if you're going to be consistently Look at the big bears for the roommates, short-term roommate, Ray Dalio, Harry Dent, all these guys. They've been wrong for 10-15 years. Well, I I can't afford to be wrong for media months. To tell people and be wrong for years and years and years, you've misled people. We're all going to be wrong in the markets for a while, but we self-correct. But to be consistently on the negative side and telling people something that doesn't happen, that's no way to live.

**[13:22] Speaker A:** Can we hear a little bit more about that time you were right about being bearish?

**[13:27] Speaker B:** Oh, that was way back in 1970. It goes back a little bit. Yeah, I was bearish cuz like everybody I like to be bearish, especially as a kid, right? I mean, I remember walking downtown San Francisco the market is crashing and people almost crying in the street and I'm just giddy. I'm making a lot of money. Made my first million dollars. I couldn't let them see how happy I was. But I But by the same token, I stayed bearish too long, too.

**[13:50] Speaker A:** Oh.

**[13:51] Speaker B:** And I left a lot on the table. That was a real learning experience for me that these bear markets don't last very long. So, you're bearish, you get in, you get out. These bear markets don't The The longest The worst bear market we saw was 1970. What we saw in 2009 was nothing. 2008 was nothing compared to back then. That's worse than the crash of 1929. And everybody has that fear the crash of 1929. It is not going to happen ever again. We'll not see anything like that. We have the Federal Reserve system. We have monetary supply. We have more regulation on stock trading than ever before. So, put that idea out of your mind. We're not going to go through that. We'll have recessions. We'll have depressions, but we're not going to have a crash like that. We'll have a pullback to the market for a year, a year and a half maybe, and then boom, we're going to go up.

**[14:37] Speaker A:** We're up again. Right.

**[14:38] Speaker A:** Um so, let's hear a little bit more about your investing philosophy. You wrote many books. You're a best seller, best selling author, and one of it is The Right Stock at the Right Time, Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Now, that seems like a prophecy that is meant to be fulfilled, like a 100%. If you pick the right stocks, if you know the right time to buy and sell, you're bound to be prospering in the coming good years. Now, in theory, it's very simple, but then if you look at it, those are very complicated and very different terms. Like, how do you find a good company? And how do you buy at the good time? So, how do you tell the difference between finding a good company and a good time to buy?

**[15:21] Speaker B:** Let's break them down and make them simple.

**[15:23] Speaker A:** Mhm.

**[15:23] Speaker B:** First of all, Microsoft has been a good stock, but it would topped out when Bill Gates sold most of his stock, and it went sideways to down for like 7, 8 years. So, it wasn't a good stock for a long time. So, you still have to buy it the stock either have the the premonition to hold on to it, say, "Okay, this is a good company, come hell or high water. I'm holding

**[15:43] Speaker A:** Mhm.

**[15:43] Speaker B:** Or I say, "Okay, look, their earnings are starting to increase here. They're paying a better dividend. Uh they have a better product now. They're they're getting some traction and advisors, and then the market's going to have its move." So, first of all, a couple of good pointers. Stocks that have low debt or very little debt will perform on a long-term basis better than stocks with a lot of debt. Or they can do research and pay their employees. They have to have the bankers or their investors. So, I like low debt stocks. I like low P/E ratios, and I like to see companies that are increasing in earnings. They really are in business. You've got to be careful because some of these companies will cook their books. So, another good measure of looking at is there really value there is are they paying taxes? The fraudulent companies look like they hadn't good earning weren't paying any taxes.

**[16:32] Speaker B:** And so, they didn't have money to pay taxes. So, that was like a tip-off. I also like to look at price sales ratios. I think that's really important. That's probably the most important fundamental ratio for a stock.

**[16:42] Speaker A:** Okay. Let's move on to the timing part. How do you know when to buy and sell?

**[16:47] Speaker B:** I'm certainly not always right in my timing, but there are major market lows. And this one I mentioned that in 1970 I stayed my position a little too long. And it made me look at charts a lot. And my first bear market was 1966. We bottomed in 1966. And I look back in those we also bottomed in 1962. So, 70 That's kind of interesting. 62 to 66 is 4 years. 66 to the 1970 bottom was 4 years. In 1974, we had another stock market bottom. And we did in 1978. We did in 1982. So, there for the United States stock market is a dominant 4-year low-to-low pattern. Now, the last time we saw that was about 4 years ago. We've had a bull market in 2026, which was our prediction for the United States market. We would have a bull market. Well, we have. Why did we have that?

**[17:36] Speaker B:** Because of that 4-year phenomenon in the market. So, that's just one very simplistic longer-term thing that says, "Yeah, we're probably going to be in good times." I haven't done enough data with your market to bear it out all the cycles. Here our presidential cycle which my good friend Neil Hurst developed in the third year of the president's term in office. It doesn't matter which dirty dog is there, Republican or Democrat, we rally. Because these guys are trying to goose the economy to keep their party in power. So, the coming year that we see 2007, I expect it to be a very positive year for stocks in America. How that relates to your market, I'd have to run the numbers on it, but I'm certainly influences it.

**[18:14] Speaker A:** Right, because a lot of the the two stocks actually driving the KOSPI are very closely linked to the big tech companies in the United States. So, So, I know you're big on charts and you're more macro, but do you when you look at a company like an individual stock, do you have your own criteria or indicator where you say, "Oh, if this company fulfills A, I always buy?"

**[18:38] Speaker B:** No, I haven't been smart enough to figure that out.

**[18:42] Speaker A:** But, I do screen. I look for price sales ratio, PE ratios, increase in earnings, and what's the price trend? Does the market see what I see in the market? And I found for the most part, you really want to be in the stocks that are the stocks of the day. The Nvidias, the Costcos. These stocks have staying power in them. We lose the staying power. I'd like to think that my cyclical work will tell me in advance, "It's time to find the exits and get out of here."

**[19:10] Speaker B:** Right, right. I think to your point, is there a time where you look at a stocks or you look at the charts and you're like, "Oh, this is the time to sell." Is there one kind of simple indicator that you can share with us?

**[19:22] Speaker A:** I will tell you what I do do. So, I don't believe that there's other for buying, there's not a one indicator approach to overall when to get in. But, I my theory is this, markets move for conditions. The charts don't move markets. Charts show where a market's gone. It doesn't show the future. The chart So, I'm very I don't think I'm a technical trader. I call myself a conditional trader. My condition is has there been professional buying, which I can measure in the marketplace? If there's been professional buying, well, I'm attracted to the stock. Is there seasonal pattern? This chart like IBM right now, great buy. IBM almost always rallies in October. The 15th day of October into the new year. Hugely strong seasonal pattern in IBM. And all stocks have them. Stocks in Korea have them as well. So, is there professional buy? I can measure that.

**[20:09] Speaker A:** And a couple of other indicators, one I call my pinch punch indicator, really good thing. Yeah, you're in the area of a buy. Now, these conditions just say we're there. It doesn't say buy. It's not a license to go buy because I still need a trend change or something. Yeah, the market is moving up now. I'll get aboard, but markets go from here to here because of conditions. They dance like that because of technicals so and trends. So I get the condition, focus on that market, trend change, go long until the conditions change.

**[20:37] Speaker B:** Right. Okay. So you built the Williams percentage R, right? Is that Am I saying that right?

**[20:43] Speaker A:** Yeah, that's the

**[20:45] Speaker B:** the Williams percentage R in the 1960s. What has changed most about the trading since then and what hasn't changed at all? Do you still use that indicator on your day-to-day analysis?

**[20:56] Speaker A:** I use it on my daily charts. Yeah, still there. Absolutely.

**[20:59] Speaker B:** So what's changed? I don't know. I'm so old I probably can't remember what's changed, but

**[21:04] Speaker A:** Clearly uh the volume has changed. When I started trading, the average daily volume in the New York Stock Exchange was 6-7 million shares a day 1967. We closed the stock market on Wednesday because they couldn't process all the orders. We'd hit 10 million shares a day. Now that's like click as this three dollars. Nothing. So the the interest in the markets. When I started trading, there were some interest in America, but people in Korea didn't care about the American market or India, Australia, all the countries I've lectured in the world, Argentina, Brazil, France, Italy, Hong Kong. Crazy. Everybody's trading now, which makes it easier because there's more liquidity. You can get in and get out because and the fees have gone way down. Gosh, when I started trading, we paid a percentage of the transaction. So if you buy say $60,000 of stock, you'd pay half a percent of $60,000.

**[21:53] Speaker A:** That was your commission. So it was very expensive to trade and now it's like nothing to trade. That was a big change and of course going to electronic markets, a massive change. Huge huge change.

**[22:04] Speaker B:** Right.

**[22:04] Speaker B:** So what inspired you to come up with these charts and these indicators? Let's go back to that.

**[22:11] Speaker A:** Probably two things. First of all, I looked at indicators and I noticed, "Damn, they don't work very well." Yeah, and then I thought I was smart enough to come up with something better. That was even more foolish I think. I read the books, I bought the indicators, the books and put the indicators on. It is what happens in the books. Pretty explain easy to explain in a book. You can all I can trade the past better than anybody. Trading in the future is more difficult. So, at that point, I started thinking and I had a mentor, Bill Meehan, who told me that it's conditions. Larry Marks move for conditions. I thought, "It's not just the charts." And that was the beginning of putting together my concept of what drives prices.

**[22:48] Speaker B:** Right. So, this is open knowledge. Like people have access to and analyzing the market. But, it feels like retail investors fall into the same trap and make the same mistakes. For instance, there's a saying when there's a fear for the market falling or going bearish, you have to buy more or something like that. But, in in a in a bearish market, you think it's the right price. You think it's undervalued, but then it drops by more. And then you panic sell or panic buy, right? So, why do you think that is?

**[23:18] Speaker A:** Well, that's just human nature that a rumor will feed upon itself. Yeah, and this a a bear market will do the same thing. But, there is a point where real value is there. One of the probably my best indicator, long clearly my best long-term indicator, I call the panic indicator. It has called within a week literally all of the major bottoms of the marketplace. And it's based on just when there's extreme panic in the market. Be a week of the low in 2022. It just shows when there's so much panic in the market that big money's going to come in and buy. So, extreme levels of panic are actually very bullish. But, you have to be a real extreme level. These don't happen every 30 days or every 2 years. They happen maybe every 4 or 5 years. You got to push all the chips across the table.

**[24:03] Speaker A:** The panic low says buy. We're turning this thing around because the markets every single time bottoms before the economy does. It is a leading indicator of turnarounds in the economy, turnaround to the upside in the economy.

**[24:16] Speaker B:** So, I'm going to give you a big hypothesis and say that tomorrow morning we wake up and the stocks drop by 20%. What can an average person, a retail trader with a another day job. What does that person have to do and what not to do when the numbers just keep on falling?

**[24:34] Speaker A:** It It depends on a company. Has the person invested in the market or is he on the sidelines in cash? If he's on the sidelines in cash, oh, get ready to buy. If by the end of the week we're still down 20%, start buying. I don't care what you buy, you just buy. Buy anything.

**[24:49] Speaker B:** Just buy, yeah. So, if you're positioned in the market and you're long and you're down that much, you got I got to sit with it. I got to ride on the horse till the horse starts riding a little bit better here. I don't want to get bucked off now. I have so many from the COVID low, one of my very best friends, right at the low, said, "Larry, I've had enough of this. I'm never investing in the stock market again." He sold all of his stock. They begged him, "Don't don't." He sold at the low.

**[25:15] Speaker A:** Oh my gosh. How painful was that to watch?

**[25:19] Speaker B:** The The markets when they decline, they're painful to people that's really optimistic, but that's not the way we think. We think bad is bad in this business. Bad is great and good is what's bad.

**[25:31] Speaker A:** Right. So, individual investors often say that competing against institutions and massive capital is from the start a very unfair game. So, is the market really structured so that individuals struggle to beat the big players?

**[25:45] Speaker B:** Somebody who can't make money has come up with, "Oh, yeah, it's those guys over there." They're always pointing a finger at somebody, right? No, here's why it's it's easier. If I'm running a fund, I can only have a 2% position in any stock or future. I have a small position. I can't get in and I might have $30 million in one stock. I just can't go click and sell $30 million of stock. As an individual, I can dance in, dance out, sneak in, they don't know I'm there, get in, get out. I can follow what they're doing. Oh, no, no, it's easier individual because we're small players. We can get in and get out. One Buffett can't sell Coca-Cola tomorrow morning all the Coca-Cola that he owns. He's locked into it. So, I can look when Coca-Cola is on buy cuz I know he likes that stock or whatever the stock is, Apple, whatever.

**[26:29] Speaker B:** And when that stock is at a value point, I'm hopping aboard.

**[26:32] Speaker A:** Right. So, you watched countless investors over 60 plus years. When you were young, did you ever fall into that trap and, you know, making a big mistake?

**[26:43] Speaker B:** Oh, I big mistakes of my life is a trail of big mistakes.

**[26:48] Speaker A:** Let's let's hear a couple how you turned it around.

**[26:51] Speaker B:** You're Now you want to hurt me. You want me to go into pain. We'll be here all night long talking about my mistakes. You kidding? I made every mistake in the book. I mean, I take a delivery on cattle. I mean, my gosh, I You know, I had margin calls. I But I'll tell you what was behind all of it. One I remember the most, I guess, was in 1973-74. I was long cattle. I thought I would go up and went lower, so I bought more cuz I knew it was such a good value. It went lower, I bought more. I kept buying cattle all the way down until I lost about a million dollars in a month. And back then, a million dollars was a lot of money. And um that was a very very tough month.

**[27:26] Speaker A:** What did you misread at the time looking back? What was kind of like your mistake? What what Why do you think you made that position?

**[27:34] Speaker B:** Because I was dumb.

**[27:36] Speaker A:** Very clear-cut answer. Thank you.

**[27:39] Speaker B:** Yeah, that day I answered it like stupid. I thought because it was a value, if it went down, I should buy more. Well, if it was a value, it should go up, right?

**[27:47] Speaker A:** And and I didn't want to admit defeat. So, I would have I would average down, right? Well, averaging down is what I call compounding your error. And I just compounded my error.

**[27:57] Speaker B:** I think unfortunately a lot of people still fall into that trap, you know, trying to average down, try to minimize the risk, and it just Yeah.

**[28:07] Speaker A:** We're all hardwired to be right. We want to be right at any cost. We'll be dead right. So, if you get into a bad position, you will do anything to make it appear that it's a winning position. Average down, tell people about it, go buy a million cups of coffee at the coffee stand. You think maybe that'll make the stock go up. All the crazy things because we are hardwired to be right. And the market is not about being right or wrong. It yes, it's about being on the correct side of the marketplace.

**[28:33] Speaker B:** All right, I think that's the end of part one. Um, is there anything you'd like to add for part one before we go on to part two?

**[28:40] Speaker A:** It's your show.

**[28:42] Speaker B:** Okay.