# UFC Vegas 124 Cortes Acosta vs Walker Predictions & Betting Breakdown | Weigh In Recap Show **Channel:** MMA EXPERTS **Source:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6g2TljgU-0 **Transcript page:** https://www.withtranscript.ai/video/T6g2TljgU-0 ## Chapters - 0:06 — Opening Card Overview and First Pick - 5:18 — Hyunko Versus Turman Breakdown - 10:10 — Conradicius Power Against Petroski - 14:59 — PrizePicks Segment and Midcard Bets - 28:27 — Karen Silva Versus Fernandez - 32:41 — Heavyweight Chaos and Lorenzo - 37:31 — Nakamura Versus Schmid Analysis - 42:49 — Degley’s Grappling Edge at Flyweight - 48:18 — Milosvich Versus Kachuera - 53:14 — Fernando’s Striking Versus Alakana - 58:17 — Old Man Davey Faces Elijah Smith - 1:03:02 — Suarez Versus Jandiroba Co-Main - 1:06:35 — Main Event, Parlays, and Wrap-Up ## Transcript **[0:06]:** UFC Vegas 124. This is the weigh-in recap show. Full card predictions and the betting breakdown brought to you by Prize Picks. So, make sure you guys smash that like button. If you're new to the channel, subscribe, turn the post notifications on. Make sure you share the video and like the video, too. And also note, I'll be live for the entire card Saturday 5:00 p. a.m. Eastern time. Don't miss the fight companion. Let's get into the first fight of the night. We got Jose Souza, Johnny Parsons. I feel like Parsons is going to pull off a weird upset in this fight. Souza is like super tall and lanky, but incredibly skinny and doesn't pack a massive punch. I'll tell you guys, I had some initial hype on Souza when he was making his UFC return against Mang Ding. He had won three fights on the regional scene and I felt like he was probably going to show out in that spot. **[1:05]:** Instead, he was point fighting happy. He was kind of running a bit and I was like, Uza is not that powerful and maybe even that powerful is an overstatement. He doesn't hit that hard. He's got length, decent from the outside, but lacks the consequence. On the opposite side, I got Johnny Parsons, who's 5'9, a 69 in reach. I'm telling you, statistics are against him in a huge way, and I understand why a lot of people are thinking Souza probably, but Parsons is a dog, though. You're talking about a longtime fighter. Yes, you only see 12 pro fights, but a shitload of amateur fights. He's been training for a long ass time and he's 35 but looks like a healthy 35 after getting he had a hip flexor and a groin injury kind of rehabbed over recent years. I don't like that he hasn't fought in a long time. **[1:56]:** True. But he's around the game syndicate MMA. I think he does some coaching over there too. Like he's fulltime in the fight game and he's got a tricky style. He's not just going to sit on the outside and play kickboxing. It's going to be heavy shots pressing on the inside. Stance switch hitter from Orthodox nasty body kicks will switch the stance and loop the overhands. Souza could definitely strike him up from distance. I'm not blind to that reality. But if Parsons can get on the inside, he's got knockout power in his hands and he's got that constant press attack. I think Souza getting ripped with some hard shots may end up being the reality. Parsons hasn't fought though since he beat Danny Roberts over three years ago. Not a great thing a long layoff like that. But Danny Roberts is a pretty athletic boxer at the time. **[2:47]:** Yeah, Danny Roberts was towards the end of his UFC career, but still Parson's put him away and Parson's, you know, it seems to me on back business mentality with a little bit of a vengeance. I feel like Souza is live to get upset by a guy who's the definition of dog and I like that. So, I'm back in Parson's grit factor and underdog savviness. Now, on the opposite side, there's Souza. He's a damn 6 foot three welterweight, freaky tall, freaky long build. Uh, yeah, expect a massive advantage from the outside without a doubt. It's an obvious read. And then on the opposite side of it, Johnny Parsons, who I actually thought came in looking pretty decent. Seems in solid shape years away. Obviously not the greatest thing ever, but we'll see what happens. And then the faceoff between the two of them. You got the nasty height advantage, but the difference with the heights being one element of it. **[3:43]:** Okay. Yes, from range it's Souza, but if Parsons can close that distance, I think Souza struggles in the pocket with the much shorter Johnny Parsons. and Parsons. He's a pressure fighter, so I would trust in some pressure fighting here. I'm going for the ballsy underdog, the on a mission to return with a tad bit of a vengeance underdog and Johnny Parsons. That's going to be my pick for this fight. Now, as far as the odds have it, we'll check them out right now. And you're looking at plus 212. Johnny Parsons, big underdog. minus 255 on the opposite end for the side of uh the powerful uh Souza. I guess the powerful Souza's again not really true. The lanky Souza I should say. And then let's see what do we got. Is it a KO? Maybe Parson's KO plus 450. I would say from my vantage point it's Parsons moneyline. **[4:40]:** Then if Suz is to win, I think he outpoints him. Sues a decision plus 240. But I think Parsons makes it a dog fight. I think the is live to go distance. I think it's going to be a good scrap for as long as it lasts. And I like Parson's relentless style. Muay Thai is the base, but does have a bit of a ground game. Could potentially show a grappling advantage against the much taller Jose Souza and potentially even, you know, the physical strength edge on top of him getting some ground and pound off. I'll trust in Parsons to pull off the surprise. I'm going to go the underdog pick. Uh maybe the unconventional underdog pick in fight one with some serious intangible disadvantages but a power edge. I like his chance. **[5:18]:** Next fight up the card we got Seyak Hyungo versus Wellington Turman. The pick is Seyak Hyuno here. I think he should be able to go out and win and look pretty good doing it too. Now he's a massive favorite in this spot but come on you know he's a prospect. He beat Igor Kavocanti. I picked him as an underdog a couple years ago on Contender Series. beating a guy who now is in the UFC, just one uncontested series and it looks terrifying. A knockout puncher, just dangerous striker overall. Co was able to shut him down and then Oban Elliot win, Phil Row win, and the losses, John Paul Labosani. John Paul is a very good prospect. He's extremely well-rounded. He just beat the brutal wrestler Farmer Hassanov hasn't fought in a long time either. It's been three years and he got stopped by Jared Good last time out. **[6:06]:** So, you might be thinking, well, the last guy you picked is off a three-year layoff. True, but he's on a six-ight win streak. Wellington Turman's off a three-year layoff, a three-ight losing streak, and he got stopped by Jared Gooden. I don't think that's a good look. Also, Turman's injuries concern me. Two shoulder surgeries per side. The shoulder injuries nasty. Those shoulders start having problems, things can fall apart in a massive way. And I really feel like co should be too much for Wellington Turman here. I think he can box with Turman fine, potentially knock him out on the feet. And then grappling wise, Turman has slick enough jiujitsu, but not a great wrestler. I could see Co taking him down and working from top position and even getting some ground and pound off and then defending Turman who I'm sure would throw up some submissions from bottom. **[7:01]:** But I think the co- versatility is a key to success here. He's a good striker. He's a good grappler. At the end of the day, losing to John Paul is not this terrible L where like Turman's most recent loss rather unforgivable. Jared Gooden obviously has fallen from grace in a big way and you know losing a lot of fights now outside of the UFC. But I look at this type of matchup and I think to myself, okay, Turman, even if you take the best moments away from the good and fight, the first round was nice. Still don't think that's enough to beat co. I don't think he finishes him. I don't think he could beat him by a decision. I think co- out works him for 15, but maybe even stops him. Turman was the last guy to weigh in. So, let's check the fighters out on the scales and we'll get a look of what's what. **[7:45]:** I felt like Wellington Turman for being the last guy weighing in, you know, he didn't look awful. He still made weight. I do think you could see the fatigue in his eyes that the weight cut took a bit out of him. But I'm not going to let the weight cut be everything in this matchup. I'm not telling you, oh, it's because the weight cut that I'm picking Co. No, it's the stylistic matchup. Turman could have his best performance of his career this Saturday. I still think Co's better than him, but odds of that with multiple shoulder surgeries doesn't seem high. There's Co looking strong on the scale, great weighing, physique looks on point, fitness seems high. I think he can win this fight however he wants. It can be a wrestle it could be a striking display, it can be a decision. It's really gonna come down to what Turman offers and I think co can pretty much counter everything Turner brings to him and I don't see a fluke submission. **[8:39]:** So seek co to go out and win is making a lot of sense to me. Now of course we look towards the betting side of it and you're going to see the odds minus 700 huge favorite but for good reason. Co should be a lock in this spot. Now do I agree with minus 700? Not necessarily, but you can find some value by going method of victory focused. So, we got a guy in Turman who's lost three in a row and has not fought for three years with several shoulder surgeries. Co though inside of the UFC, he's been on the decision hunt. Three UFC he was putting people away. He had three straight finishes prior to getting the Contender Series fight with now three straight decisions. I feel maybe it's time for co to get the job done inside the distance. So I'm looking at plus 110 co inside distance and I'm thinking there is a pathway a club and sub a knockout shot. **[9:37]:** I do think co is going to let the hands fly and turman's defense in question. The most positive element of Wellington Turman is the fact that he trains under Glover Terara and he trains with Alex Pereira. But just because you train with them doesn't mean you are them. So the co- pick is mine. I will say today I'm feeling possibility of a finish a little bit higher, but my initial read was just co shutting him down and winning on the cards. Seems very likely Co for the W. **[10:10]:** Next fight up we have Andre Petroski versus Montas Conradicius. I like Montas Conradicius. I think it's a bad matchup for Andre Petroki. We got a 27y old striker who's got big power and four straight wins. But really that contender series win last year against Danny Babir. Sick. That was contradicious on fire the way he put him out. UFC debut outworked Troley for three rounds. But Troley is a weird guy to fight. I'm not going to knock him for not finishing that one. Petroski's lost three straight. He's getting finished in his past two. Things seem to be falling apart for Andre Petroski. He is a very good grappler. Wrestling game, strong, top control, excellent, but lacking the finishes for sure over recent fights, even his wins. I'm saying he hasn't been finishing people for a long time. Kind of a bit of a just control merchant. **[11:04]:** Does he just dominate Montas and grappling for three rounds? I say no. I think Montas's grappling is actually pretty good, too. And defensively, it should hold up nicely. And then Petrroski is going to have to deal with some heavy strikes. And I don't think he does. Petroski, he typically doesn't win fights when adversity is a big element of the comeback, right? Like for me to pick Petroski, it would be okay. He's got a good chin. He survives some scary moments early to outgrapple contraious late. I feel like Petroski kind of just needs three rounds of consistently hitting takedowns and winning every battle of position. If that doesn't happen, Conradius should find some big shots and knock them out. And I'm going to trust in Contra Vicious. He's got the reach advantage. He's the taller guy. He's the more powerful striker. And I think he's pretty good as far as prospects go. **[11:55]:** And I'm going to pick him to win by knockout. I think he's going to end up putting Petroski away. I think the striking difference is pretty substantial. And Petroski losing three straight. Pretty low on momentum right now. And I think that Kondraovicious is definitely a solid prospect at 185. enough so where I think the right move is definitely trusting him with some confidence here. You know, I would consider him a confident pick on the card. I think Conradicious should go out and show out. Now, he's the second to last guy to weigh in, which had me a little nervous, but made weight no problem. Looks sunken in a bit, but very physically strong and impressive build on him. 27year-old athletic striker who seems to be pretty capable in grappling. That seems like a lock against Andre Petroki who was like the first guy to weigh in. **[12:42]:** He looked jacked and strong on the scale. Petroski is a good grappler, but outside of the grappling, nothing else he does is that impressive. And then taking on a guy that seems pretty well-rounded. It just seems like a recipe for disaster type of fight. Conradicious, taller, longer. He looked good at the faceoff, looked intense, and uh yeah, I like the energy around Conrad Vicious this week and especially today after we saw them face off. I think he goes out and shows out here. Now, of course, you look towards the betting lines, you're going to see it's a wide line. Conradicious is around a minus 288 minus 300 favorite, but it should be that because you have the prospect with the striking prowess versus the kind of slipping journeyman Grappler and Petroski. Looking towards method of victories, I think you go condrad a vicious by KO. **[13:34]:** That would make the most sense to me. Uh the line ranges from minus 165 at most books, but you can even find it unfortunately as high as minus 225. I think it makes sense. Minus 165. Conrad Vicious should win probably in the first two rounds. My official read would be Conrad Avicius round one, round two KO. Uh for him to win first or second round KO, wow, was even a minus 170. I'm going to have to actually check on my phone what a Hard Rock Bet has it at because I'm sure you can find it at minus 110. Let's check it out. Let's go to Hard Rock Bet right now. I'm doing it for the people right now. Let's see what's what. All right. So, Montas Conrad of win if you just go KO on hard rock bet minus 160 which is pretty similar to what most books have. **[14:24]:** Uh fight not to reach round three. So you got minus 120 if you go a vicious first or second round KO. If you like first round KO, it's around plus 115. I do think there is a pretty good chance of that first round stoppage, but first or second would make a lot of sense. And the contradicious knockout read is going to be mine. I thought he looked pretty ready at the faceoffs. Weigh-in wasn't bad for as long as it took him. I was grateful and I think he goes out and shows out. So, Montas Conrad, Vicious feels like the right read for me and uh I would say some confidence on him getting it done and looking pretty good doing it. **[14:59]:** So, that is going to be my pick there. And before we jump for the next fight, Prize Picks, an absolute W to Prize Pick sponsoring the show. You guys can run over to Prize Picks now. You're going to use my promo code HMA and then new users can play $5 in lineups. And if that lineup wins, you're going to get $150 back your way in lineup. So, pretty good deal over for the prize picks, folks. And uh I like what they got cooked up. And you know, you guys typically like what I'm cooking up with prize picks. Past couple weeks, we've also had some pack openings. This week, just a lineup. Last week's lineup hit and I said, you know what? I got to trust in my time reads again. So, I have three more than a certain amount of round reads, and it just feels right. **[15:49]:** I did the same thing last week, and I like this one. Same value, too. Times 2.2 times your money. At the top, we have more than 1.5 rounds for Karen Silva. I think Karen Silva and Gabriella Fernandez pretty live to go all rounds. But even if there is a stoppage, I like later stage. Elijah Smith, Davy Grant, Old Man Davey's tough as they come. Elijah Smith's a great prospect. We'll see what happens when they fight, but again, it's a fight that I think it goes more than 1.5 total rounds. And then co-main event, Suarez, Janoba, ladies fight, grapplers. I don't think either one of them is getting a sub. I don't think either one of them is getting a knockout. More than 1.5 or rather more than 2.5 seems super likely. So to put that all together, Kin Silva more than 1.5, Smith more than 1.5. **[16:38]:** Suarez more than 2.5. Seems like the right lineup. I like it. And it's 2.2 times your money as well. So, I'm definitely feeling that. And if you guys want to follow me on prize picks, I got my link in the description. As I said at the start, you guys can run over there. New users play five. You're going to get $150 back in lineups if you win. So, W Prize Picks sponsoring the show. Don't forget to use the HMA promo code. And let's get back to the regularly scheduled programming. Our next fight on the card, we have Austin Bashy versus Carlos Calderon. This is a late notice edition. Cderon took the fight on about three or four days notice, so he's stepping in without a camp and he's taking on a tough Austin Bashy. This is an interesting matchup, man, because Calderon is pretty good and he's a fun guy to watch on the regional scene. **[17:29]:** Is an entertaining style, but I don't think he beats Austin Bashie. I feel like Bashie is going to be too well-rounded. Cderon's base of his game is grappling and he's pretty good on the mat. He's hunting for submissions and dominant positions. The problem is he does end up on bottom sometimes and I don't love that here against a guy in Bashy who's known for his grappling and his short, stocky, and strong. I think Cderon will probably lose a lot of the scrambles in the grappling between the two of them. And then the striking. I think Cderon's okay. His standup's decent, but I don't think it's as sharp as Bashie's. I feel like Bashie's biggest improvement since preUFC to now is that the Muay Thai and the kickboxing, the striking flow is starting to really come together. And I think Bashi could get some decent shots off on the feet even against Cderon. **[18:19]:** We saw him go out and pull it off last time uh you know early against Delgado. Yes, he lost the fight, but he dropped Delgado who then fought in a main event and dropped John Silva. So you're looking at an Austin Bashie that has seen the higher end of the division and didn't perform bad, lost, but still put up a decent effort versus now a really short notice call in Cderon. I think Calderon's a fun addition to the division, but pulling off the upset against Bashy, I don't feel it's too likely. Now the one positive element of Calderon is you're seeing three straight wins. beat Justice Torres, who was a contender series uh fighter at one point, beat ex-UFC fighter Damon Jackson, and then recent win just a little over a month ago against Estz. Does have a loss, close decision to a prospect, but that's four fights ago. **[19:09]:** It's a split decision. It's not one of those what the moments. The real loss that I think of when I see Cderon is when Alberto Montes and him engaged in a competitive fight, but then he ended up getting submitted. So, I'm looking at him definitely a better version than that, but don't quite feel ready to say he's beaten an Austin Bashy. I think Bashie's putting it all together. He's 25 years old, very physically strong, jacked, like short and stocky, but that makes him hard to dominate in grappling. And Cderon's slick with his jiu-jitsu and pretty mobile from bottom position, too. He's got good dexterity. But I just see Bashie doing more. I think Bashi could have some moments striking could win the positional battle grappling and I think Bashie live for a decision or even a later stage finish would be possible for him. I like Bashie's chances. **[19:56]:** 14-2, three UFC fights deep and I do have to say the Delgado loss has not aged bad. I think Delgado is a good fighter in the division and a guy to keep an eye on. And Bashi's not even 28. You know what I'm saying? He's 25. He's a kid almost. He's fighting a 30-year-old Cderon who I'd say is in his prime, but I feel like Bashie able to do more over the course of 15. Even if there's some testy moments because of Cderon's slick jids, I don't think he subs Bashy and I think Bashi is more live to hurt Cderon than the contrary. So, the Austin Bashy side is going to be my official prediction for this spot. Now, as far as the fighters on the scales, let's bring them both up and let's get a read of what's what. Austin Bashy weighed in and look it's the short stocky jack build. **[20:42]:** This is a hard build to manipulate in grappling for more of the lanky slick builds and it's MMA too. So strikes involved. It's not like we're just doing no opposite side called. He did look pretty good. Short notice but you're telling this guy is training all the time. Like I'm seeing it. He's locked in. He looks great on the scale. He looks ready to rock and roll. And uh his style is pure entertainment. So, this does make for a pretty fun matchup. There's the faceoff between the two. Calderon obvious height advantage, but only a 1-in reach advantage, which I actually like for Bashie is that he's not dealing with like a 76 in reach from Cderon. It's more if they're exchanging on the inside. I think Bashie's hooks should be pretty sharp. And then Cderon on the ground. Slick for sure, but I don't think Bashie's going to overlook him. **[21:31]:** I think Bashie keeps it smart. Could he end up pulling off the finish against Calderon? Bashi's deadly. Definitely a possibility. I mean, his ground game's dangerous, but Calderon's strong suit is the submission savviness. And uh it's definitely going to be a scrap as long as it lasts. I'm going to take Bashy later stage. H later stage finish. I'm kind of feeling decision seeing them face off. It's decision or later stage finish. I don't think it's an easy fight for Bashy, but I could see him stunning Cderon in a club and sub as a possibility. But I could also see three good rounds of work between the two. Bashie having the upper hand and ending up in top position and landing some more significant shots. So Austin Bashie to get it done. UFC fight number four. I think that matters. Now I don't like the odds. **[22:17]:** I don't like that it's huge, huge favorite status. Minus 625 is so wide for Bashy. Oh my god, that's ugly, man. Minus 625. I think it should be closer than that. You're telling me CO and now Bash my god like minus 300. I think - 350 - 300 is fair. At open it was around minus4 something. I thought it'd be around minus 3 something. Calderon plus 467. Bashie should go out and win but these lines are pretty damn ugly. And then looking towards how does he get it done. And again, I'm not really crazy about this one as far as the props because Bashy decision possible at 3 to1. Cderon's pretty tough. Bashie sub is minus 120. Honestly, Bashie decision at 3 to1 is not a bad read because Cderon's ground game is good. He's not going to be easy to tap. And I could see three good rounds between the two. **[23:15]:** I know some people are going to big dog chase it with Calderon. I give you respect. He's going to fight for your money. But I think that Austin Bashie is a bit too well-versed for Cderon plus UFC experience plus full camp seems like a tough fight for Cderon here. I would trust in Austin Bashy to go out and get the job done. Next fight up the card we have Jose Delano versus Murdisali Momeov. I like Mago Medov here. I really do. I got to tell you guys, I've been high on Mago Medal of pre-contender series. I saw this guy said, "All right, this is a problem. This guy's got something here. Knockout power in both hands and a pretty slick grappling game." Now, on the opposite side, Jose Dano is a pretty good like tempo-based kickboxer. He's got solid leg kicks. He enters range with good straight punches, defensively sounding grappling, and just kind of checks boxes as far as having a versatile MMA tool set that works. **[24:14]:** Like, he goes out and he shuts people down. He's got a high volume attack, but it's not reckless. It's precise boxing. On the opposite side though with Mago Medov, there's the power. There's the one-shot kill ability. There's the legitimate knockout threat. Whereas Delano is a volume striker, not a knockout puncher. Mago Medov could stun Delano with a big punch. And then Mago Medov's ground game looks pretty nasty. Obviously, a big submission in his UFC debut. Ground skills seem pretty capable for Mago Medov. And I think he's uh relatively slick when they hit the mat with deadly striking. His style is finish. He goes out and finishes everybody that he fights. It's an aggressive fast starting style that does big damage or obviously finishes the fights on the ground. I think Delano is solid as far as prospects go, but Mago Medov to me seems to just have that thing about him. **[25:06]:** You know, there's that certain element of how he throws his shots and the way he's beating people that tells me you gotta believe in this guy until proven otherwise. So, I like Mago Medov as a moneyline lock type of play of the card here. He's going to be pretty much even money. We'll bring up the odds in a second, but first let's check them out on the scale. Let's see what's what with the weigh-in. Delano weighing in. He looked excited. He was happy to be there. The mustache is absolutely on point, and he looks in great physical condition. This is a battle of two of the region's best prospect. You got Kyrgyzstan's best prospect versus one of Brazil's best prospects at this weight class. Mago Medov looked pretty good on the scale on the opposite side. Pretty shredded up and lean. I don't know, man. **[25:48]:** It's that Mago Medov feel. I'm not saying I don't know like I don't know with the pick. I'm like Margo Medov just he's got something about him. He's got knockout power in both hands. He's a fast starting finisher. His grappling game's good. I don't see him getting shut down for three rounds by Delano. I think Mago Medov should find the finish in a bit of a wild fight and I could see a big shot getting through for Mago Medov that stuns Delano and potentially leads to a Mago Meadow club and sub in this type of spot. Now the face off both guys look solid definitely no negative notes and the odds being pretty damn close is respect towards both prospects. You're looking at minus 116 for Delano, plus 100 for Mago Medov. So, the moneyline Mago Medov lock call becomes the Mago Medov underdog lock call at plus 100. **[26:41]:** I feel like definitely live to pull this one out. Seeing a Mago Medov damaging advantage with power strikes, wrestling edge, and then Delano just not having the consequence on his shots. I feel Mago Medov is able to kind of walk him down and throw big shots and even threaten with takedowns without much of a substantial worry of what could be on the other side with a lacking submission threat. Now Mamedov finish ranges from plus 185 to plus 170. I do feel there's a real chance Mamedov goes out and finishes this fight. Mamedov by sub you're going to get around plus 325 knockout plus 550. I think both would be considerable methods of victory because he's got knockout power. But if he hurts Delano, I could see him shooting for a neck. And then as far as just, you know, betting wise though, at plus 100, you already have a valuable money line on a really nice prospect. **[27:36]:** So the way I look at it, Mago Medov as a slight underdog, or rather even an even money play if you get it at minus 110, I can't pass that up. I said to myself after Mago Meadow fought on Contender, I said, "This is one I'm watching." And then his debut in the UFC, I locked him by finish at plus 100. Now I'm locking him to win at plus 100. If you're getting a slight plus money tag on Mago Medov, I think you take advantage. This guy seems to have something special. His game's versatile. His striking is dangerous. His ground game is slick. and I just feel he has a clearer pathway to doing violent things in this type of matchup. So, Mago Medov pick is going to be mine. I think he finishes Jose Delano. And uh yeah, I like the money line at plus 100. **[28:24]:** That's going to be my underdog lock of the card. **[28:27]:** Next fight up, we got Karen Silva versus Gabriella Fernandez. Ladies going after it. I'm going to pick Karen Silva, but not with much enthusiasm. I think it's positional control. I think she's going to hit the takedowns against Gabriella Fernandez and kind of just win the battle of position. Fernandez has the faster and more explosive striking, but we can't forget that she got shut off in the first round by Casey O'Neal bad last time and I picked O'Neal to win that fight. So, I did fade Fernandez last time and I'm going to do it again here. I think Karen Silva probably gets her down and ends up winning on the floor. I think her grappling and control is a key to victory. The knock on Karen Silva is she's not one of the best wrestlers in the division, but that doesn't mean she doesn't have a decent takedown arsenal. **[29:18]:** And in this matchup, I do anticipate that she's going to hit some takedowns on Fernandez. And I feel like Karen Silva, she's athletic and capable enough on the feet where I don't see her just getting destroyed by Fernandez's Muay Thai. Like I think Karen Silva could be live to get some shots off on the feet, too. I just think Fernandez needs a knockout, whereas Silva can strike with her, can grapple with her, could cruise to a decision, could win a back and forth decision and mix in takedowns, or if she gets the back of Fernandez, could end the fight by sub. So, Karen Silva pick is going to be my pick here. I give her a big advantage on the ground, but the disparity of the striking is not vast enough where it's like, well, this striker, if they're striking, is going to shut her off. **[30:05]:** I don't feel that with Fernandez. Like obviously she was able to get a sick shock against Kong Wang dropped her and then subbed her. But that was two years ago and you know it's Kong Wang who's just the striker. Karen Silva's game is grappling first and foremost and I'm going to trust in her grappling game to do enough here to secure probably a decision win. As far as the ladies on the scales, we'll bring them up and check them out. Kin Silva first up. She looked pretty solid at the weigh-in. typically comes in decent shape. Not like super lean but pretty jacked, arms looking strong, good physicality on the ground I anticipate for her. Opposite side of it, there is Gabriella Fernandez who looks pretty great on the scale for sure. Good ground or rather good strike skill, but the lacking ground skill is kind of the, you know, relative concern. **[30:55]:** I know you're going to say, "Oh, but Fernandez, I mean, she's got four wins by sub." Yeah, but her jiu-jitsu game is not to the same ability as Karen Silva's. You know, she's an athletic girl. She's a strong striker. She's won by club and sub in the past. I don't see that happening here. Face off between the two. Karen Silva thought it was still Halloween. We had the mask on, the killer Silva mask. All right, listen. That's fine. I don't know why I wasn't a big fan of the mask. Not saying that it's going to make me pick flip to the other side, but I wasn't the biggest fan of uh the antics. I think for Karen Silva, she needs to win by finish before putting this killer mask on cuz right now she ain't scaring anybody with these decisions. Minus 228 for Karen Silva. **[31:38]:** Opposite side plus 191 for Gabriella Fernandez. I will back Karen Silva. I think she goes out wins. Should be quality enough with her wrestling to hit some key takedowns and the striking should be fine. Think the fight goes over two and a half around minus 160. I think Silva on the cards plus 150. Uh Silva by sub is what? Silva by sub plus 240. I don't think that's good enough. I think Silva decision is live plus 150, but I'm just really not that crazy about the betting in this fight. Like I'm picking Karen Silva, but like Karen Silva doesn't really needle move for me. I'm like it's Karen Silva. All right, whatever. So yeah, Karen Silva is going to be the call. I think she wins the battle of position. I think she outworks her, outg grapples her, maybe even takes her back a little bit, and I think she secures a nice decision. **[32:29]:** And that's why I think, you know, this fight's poised to go over 1.5, which was in the prize picks lineup, and I think it does. So, Silva for the decision is going to be my read. **[32:41]:** Next fight up, we got heavyweights. Thomas Peterson versus Gabrielle Lorenzo. I'm going to go with the wild Brazilian striker, Gabrielle Lorenzo. He was scheduled to fight Alvin Hines on this card. Rather large step up in competition. Hines is pretty low down the barrel, whereas like Peterson is a good top 25 heavyweight, but Lorenzo's striking is pretty intense. He's a wild striker, but it doesn't matter that he's wild. He needs one punch. And people get shut off consistently by this wild man. I like the wild standup. I like the dangerous power. I like the aggressive chaos from Lorenzo. He's a Muay Thai kickboxer, Brazilian style. He throws caution to the wind, takes big chances, and when he lands, he shuts people off. Peterson, he's a decent wrestler, and he's not a bad southpaw boxer, but he has been knocked out. We saw him get shut off by Petrino, saw him get shut off by Gazv, then obviously subbed up by Volta Walker. **[33:42]:** I think Lorenzo's hands are going to be effective here. And I'm pretty sure Lorenzo's takedown defense is solid. I feel like with his athleticism and explosive abilities, I have a hard time seeing him bankrupt in the wrestling. Does have a win by submission, but not necessarily known for his jiu-jitsu game, but seems to be capable on the floor with obviously the focus of his skill set, knocking people the out. And Peterson is a wrestler that has turned more into a boxer. He likes to strike. Doesn't hit a whole lot of takedowns in fights. Occasionally mixes them in like against Dantel Maize he did. But Dantel Maize is Dantel Maze. You know what I'm saying? I don't even get into who Dantel Maize is in the UFC. Come on. Especially end of the career Dantel Mazize. I think we'll see Gabriel Lorenzo land some bombs. I think he catches Thomas Peterson with some heavy shots and knocks him out. **[34:33]:** I'm going to say Lorenzo first round. I think he should be explosive. I think he should start fast. And I think Peterson takes too many risks on defeat for this Muay Thai striker to not capitalize. So I'm going to go Lorenzo knockout. And he's an underdog, too, which is pretty cool. Let's check them out on the scales and see what's what. So obviously full camp Lorenzo. He weighed in five pounds heavier than his Contender Series fight. Doesn't look fatter. Actually, just looks bigger. Seems to have put on some muscle. This guy's pretty jacked. I got to be honest with you. He looks like he's on some resilient supplements. I wonder if he is uh an acquaintance with Vtor Belelffort because he looks freakishly jacked and the delts are absolutely huge especially when you look at some of his older fights when he was a middleweight. **[35:17]:** Now he's just blown up powerhouse. He seems to have middleweight speed with heavyweight power and uh that seems kind of kryptonite like to the opposite side. Thomas Peterson at the weigh-in. Listen, Peter Griffin Peterson looks like he does. You're never going to say, "Oh that weigh-in changed my mind." He's Peter Griffin Peterson. He's coming to throw down. Then the face off between the two of them. Let's see them go nose tonse. Let's feel the vibe of this face off. I think that's the key here. Lorenzo is going to be a bit taller. Obviously the leaner guy of the two, but Peterson coming in with a 19 and a half pound weight advantage. So that could come in handy for him in the grappling. But our number one contender, Hockett, fighting for the belt, is a guy that comes in, you know, 220s, 230s. Smaller heavyweights with their speed have done well in the UFC. **[36:11]:** And Lorenzo doesn't seem like much of an exception. Obviously a wild striker, but with big knockout power. Not saying he's Deontay Wilder, but you know, he's a skinnier heavyweight that seems to have serious pop. So, I'm going to trust in heavy hands for Lorenzo to get the job done. I think he goes out and wins by knockout. I think he's too devastating with the power. Looking towards the betting lines, they haven't really moved this week. They've been the same. Lorenzo underdog around plus 145. Peterson minus 170 as the favorite. And then let's see here. Uh Lorenzo to win by KO. My official read around plus 250 for him to go out and win by knockout. I think he wins by first round knockout. Lorenzo KO round number one about plus 600. I like that. I think Lorenzo first round KO seems rather live and I think he ends up shutting off Thomas Peterson with an explosive blitz of absolute bombs. **[37:08]:** I don't have immense trust in Thomas Peterson's chin and his fight IQ. And if he can't get Lorenzo down, I'm telling you, he is going to get rocked bad on the feet. And I think Lorenzo is going to knock him out. So, I'm going UFC debut heavyweight. I'm going the 27-year-old striker. I'm going Lorenzo by KO. **[37:31]:** Next fight up is our featured prelite. We got Oi Schmid versus Kichiro Nakamura. I'm going Kichiro Nakamura. You can't pick Ali Schmid, though. I think he's got potential. He's a 4 and3 pro who has never beat somebody with a winning record. Yeah. has never beat someone with a winning record. You might go, "Oh, but it's Marwan Rahiki." True. But prior to that, he beat a five and five fighter and then he beat a debuting guy and an 0 and2 fighter. And this is less than two years ago. And then he lost to the six and4 Dims Gilly in a scrap journeyman scrapper from Eternal MMA. Like you look at the level of opposition. Sizzle comeback KO for Nakamura. That was sick. Fight before beat Kaiwan Lee who had some hype 15 and six. beat Park 91 and1, beat a Journeyman 2118, beat a two and0 fighter, but like their resume isn't comparable. **[38:28]:** Like Nakamura has actually beaten some guys. The Sizzle win is especially impressive because it showed he doesn't give up on himself and he's got good cardio. Ali Schmid is a city kickboxing grappler. That's the problem. He's more of an offensive wrestler than anything else. And he's not that great at wrestling. His striking set seems city kickboxing like, but his offensive move set isn't really. He doesn't have that big check hook. He doesn't seem to have snappy leg kicks. Kind of gets backed up a bit and then shoots some takedowns, but I don't feel Ollie Schmid's wrestling is that good where I'm like, well, Nakamura can't stop anything. We've seen Nakamura taken down before, but he's done a good job getting back up to the feet and landed shots. He's dealt with solid grappling. He's eight and one and he's beaten guys with winning records versus something on the other side. **[39:16]:** Four and three versus no winning records. I cannot pick Ali Schmid to win in a UFC fight when I don't think he should be here now. I think Ali Schmid after he fought M Rhiki which I think was a mistake. But regardless, they should have put him back to the regional scene, get him four wins in a row, bring him back to the UFC then or put him on Contender Series or Road to UFC. Build them that way. I really think it's a mistake that Oi Schmid was brought to the UFC too soon because he has the outline of a good prospect, but I don't see it as far as everything else. I don't think he has the level of UFC. He's only got four wins as a pro with three losses. I don't like that. And though Nakamura doesn't seem like the most reliable guy ever, very upright karate striking style southpaw, he's got fast hands, he's got dangerous knees, he's got heavy kicks, and he does have solid getups. **[40:06]:** and he's deadly. So, I'm going to go with the 8 in1 guy who just won Road to UFC. I'll pick him by knockout. I don't trust Oi Schmid. But I will tell you, Ollie Schmidt is going to make you double take it though because as far as looking like they got it, Ali Schmid looks like they got it, bro. He actually kind of has a similar look to Kevin Jay and his UFC career was not too good. He looks jacked. He looks strong. Ali Schmid looks absolutely ready. Whereas like Nakamura look kind of like on the scale at the bird chest. He's like praying that he makes way. He looked tired. It was not a good look at the win for Kichiro Nakamura. I know. I see it. I agree. But I can't pick Ali Schmid. Face off between the two of them. Look at it. **[40:49]:** Height difference seems to be about an inch and a half, two inches. It was listed on topology as 4 in. No reach about the same. Half an inch favors Schmid. Schmid looks the part. He's jacked as He's strong. He's looking like he's ready to dominate, but Kichiro Nakamura is a pretty slick karate stylist. And I think Oie Schmid gets lit up and knocked out again. I'm not going to trust in the Hungarian stallion. I'm going to trust in the Japanese prospect. I think he goes out and he gets a knockout. As far as the lines for this fight, they are pretty wide in the favor of Nakamura. So Schmid may be looking the part, but the books don't believe it. Minus 360 for Ketchiro Nakamura, plus 291 for Ali Schmid. And then looking towards how it gets done, I think Nakamura is pretty live for a KO, but minus 175, I'm not interested. **[41:42]:** This fight is not my immense betting interest. There's really the the way you would play it is you would say, "Okay, I'm going to go knock him in a parlay." But he might be a parlay buster, right? Because Aldi Schmid looks the part. But I don't think he is. Schmid to win by sub plus 2500 was a Schmid decision plus 550 but he hasn't proven he can do that at a UFC level or anything close to it. You know losing a fight to Dims Gilly on the regional scene like what's the resume like I don't see it. All right he's beating look at it 55 and three is the best guy he ever fought. This is the best guy he ever fought or rather ever beat. Maybe not ever fought because he did fight Mariki. But like come on. You know what I'm saying? Dim Skilly's got him. **[42:26]:** Dim Skilly's journeyman. Tough journeyman. Wild journeyman. What a journey man. I'm going to trust in the side of Kiro Nakamura. I think he should be able to win. If he beats Sizzle, he should beat Ollie Schmid. I'm going to go Nakamura to find uh a knockout at some point. I think Olly Schmid's going to end up showing some vulnerabilities in striking. And uh I'll say Nakamura stoppage. **[42:49]:** Next fight up, it brings us to our main card opener. If you guys have enjoyed the show so far, make sure you guys smash that like button. New to the channel, make sure you hit subscribe. We got Mitch Raposo versus Marcos Degley. I think that Degley is a really tough matchup for Mitch Rapos. He's my pick. I think he's an obvious pick here. Degley is a nasty grappler. When fights hit the floor, this man is a boogeyman towards the back takes. But you might be thinking, Raposo's takedown defense though, here's the thing. Raposo has solid takedown defense and solid defensive grappling. But very good wrestling gets to Raposo. Aza Max took him down eight times. Aza Maxim sucks at jiu-jitsu. He's got good wrestling, sucks at grappling. Marcos Degley has excellent takedowns and excellent grappling. He's got the the combination to make waves at 125. **[43:47]:** You see, there's guys out there, they can wrestle. You've seen it. Farman Hassanov's a prime. He's a great wrestler. No jiu-jitsu. Or guys with really good jiu-jitsu that don't have pathways to get fights to the ground. Begley's jiu-jitsu is slick and he's a good wrestler. But besides all of that, this guy's a knockout puncher. He's a deadly striker. Training partner of Carlos Prates. His standup's legit. He works the body beautifully with the lead left hook. He mixes it up up high. Power in all of his shots. He's slick. He's fast. And he's dangerous. And I feel like Mitch Raposo's cooked here. This is the stylistic nightmare to Mitch Raposo's UFC career because if you look at his other UFC fights, he hasn't fought somebody all that complete. You might be thinking, "Oh, but Sumji's experience, yes, and he's good and Sumader's effective, but he's striking first defensive grappling." **[44:33]:** Reposo can mix in some grappling against those type of guys and his striking is good enough to survive. Fight before that, it was the UFC debut. Andre Lima, good Muay Thai, pretty good on the ground, but not great. Okay, takedowns, good Muay Thai, beat him. It wasn't a split. He beat him. Azat Maxim, weird fight with point deductions and stuff. It went his way. Nice for Apostle. And then last time, rest in peace, Alan Nasimento. All love to him. Excellent jiu-jitsu. Not a highly effective wrestler. More so, you see him getting wins by finish on the ground after doing damage on the feet. I think that Marcos Degley is too complete. I'm going to trust in Degley. I think you got a real prospect here at 125. And I think Mitch Raposo is gonna struggle with the skill set of this guy. I think Degley actually subs him. **[45:19]:** Jake Hadley subbed Raposo on contender series a long time ago. I think Degley takes his back and chokes him out. I think second round submission for Marcos Degley has got to be the call. I see the pathway to victory for Degley to control this when it hits the mat and take the back of hero and not just cruise to a decision but win by submission. I like Degley. As far as the fighters on the scales, let's check them out. Let's see what we're working with here. It's Raposo weighing in. Finger to the sky. They they didn't have a better pick for Rapos. This was it. They gave him the uh the journeyman treatment, but he looks in great shape. Rapos with the beard now. The aura is jumping up a bit, but uh yeah, I still won't trust him. Deli on the opposite side. He just looks like a villain, you know? **[46:06]:** Looks like a created fighter in UFC 6. Looks ready for the spot. 26 years old, no hair on him, doesn't need it, man. Holy And then the face off between the two. Let's feel the energy of what they brought to the table as they went nose tonse. Degley little bit taller than him, but you know, I close. 5'6, 5'5, not a big concern. Little reach advantage towards Degley. Two and a half inches could come in handy, but I think it's his takedown threat and jiu-jitsu game that should win him the fight. Faceoff was solid, though. I like what I saw. Both guys look ready for it. I think Degley goes out and pulls off the submission against uh Mitch Raposo. I I don't see Raposo winning. I'm trusting in Degley's versatility. I think he's a solid prospect and I think that he should be able to win this fight. **[46:52]:** As far as the odds, Degley a bit of a favorite around minus 232. Reposo around plus 194. Not crazy wide odds and you know they shouldn't be crazy wide. You know, minus 200 range is fair. One of the best prospects in the division versus a tough out in the division. and Mitch Proposa. I'm going to say Degley by sub. Degley by submission. And the line is plus 450. I think it's worth at least touching. Like as far as DJ props go. Degley by sub. Rear naked choke. He's really good at that. And Repulso's chin's nice, but I think he gets his back taken. I like Dley sub. I like Dley by sub in round number two. Dley by sub. Round two. What is it? Den call. But dude, I think Dley wins by sub. Round number two, you're looking at what? Plus 1,400, plus 12. **[47:42]:** I'm going to say yes. If you talking about DJ and lines, I like it. So, I'm going to go Deley sub round two. I think he finds it, man. I feel like Reposo's neck live to get caught. And uh I'm going to go second round submission for Degley. I'm a second round submission merchant. I hit crop shot plus 700 last week by second round sub. And this week I'm gonna say Degley second round sub around plus 14 plus,200 seems pretty live too. So Marcos Degley by submission in round number two is the Mystic M Reed. **[48:18]:** I think he's choking Mitch Raposo out and I'm pretty damn excited about him as a prospect. Next fight up the card, Priscilla Kachuera versus Nina Milosvich. You got to pick Nina Milosich. He's the prospect. Good amateur, nine and one pro and Kachuera seems washed. Milo Seavage should be able to compete with her in any area. Striking wise, Milo Savage is solid. Showed some power dropping Haley Cohen with the body shot last time. Her striking solid, her grappling solid. She checks boxes as far as like a decent prospect skill set goes. I don't think she's ascending to the top 10 though. You know, the initial hype on Milo Seavich versus like what I saw even pre UFC debut. She actually looked better in her UFC debut than the pre-tape cuz I was watching I'm like, man, something's missing here. Then she got a stoppage even though Cohen was kind of landing. **[49:07]:** They're giving her a girl on a threeight losing streak who's 38 years old and seems to be completely falling off. Nina Milos should be able to take Kachua down and dominate her on the ground. I know she likes to strike, but this would be the type of fight where you just go towards path of least resistance because Kachera's ground game has looked worse and worse over recent years. It hasn't gotten better. I don't know why it hasn't gotten better. I know she's like a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, but ghee training doesn't always translate to real fights. Like hair in my mouth over here. Little beard hair. I'm going Millow Savage to find the way. I think she should take her down. I don't know if she will. If they do strike, I think Kachua's chin seems to be gone. Milos Seavage could land, but the chin of Kachuera could be gone. **[49:51]:** 100% 100% the chin could be gone. One thing that is not is power. Kachoa's got power and if Melo Savage is stupid and she just wants to slug it out, I know Kachuera is pretty much done, but could she land a wild punch and knock this girl out? Yes, she has the power to put Milo Sevich away. Kachua hits hard, but as far as her MMA tool set, no. I don't think she has the skills to beat her. It's the oneot chance. Milo Seavich playing that game and slugging would be the downfall. So, I will trust in the side of Milos Seavich to not play that game. But there's a little bit of fear where I'm like, o, did she around? Does she make those mistakes? Let's hope not. I'm going to say Milo Seavich fights smart, mixes up the striking and grappling well. Maybe drops Kotachu and knocks her out. **[50:38]:** Maybe wins by sub. I think she should be able to dominate this fight on the ground. Maybe she wants to show it on the feet. I'm not saying she won't. It's just you're giving Kachua the chance. Milo Sevich weighing in. look pretty decent. It's interesting though because her lines are crazy wide. I'm picking her to win, but like there's a little fear I have. Kachuera's game. Kachuera is crazy. She's crazy. Kachware is nuts. Is she going to throw caution to the wind and slug got the power to do damage. All right, let's see a face off between the two. Kachera looked intense. Milo Sevich looked decent. You see what I'm saying? I don't know. Like, I'm not pick flipping. Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to tell you, oh yeah, Kachuer is going to win. Milo Savage absolutely has the tool set to beat her. **[51:25]:** I just worry she's going to fight stupid. I just have this weird feeling. I had a tell you I had a dream about this fight earlier this week before most confident picks. I had a dream about this fight and the result was not in the dream, but they're slugging on the feet and Kacher at the apex too in the dream was realistic. Kacher landed some shots and Milo Seavich like trying to drop to rip the body and getting hit and looking kind of slow and I'm like what are you doing? So the DEN dream Kachuera upset if you're feeling like playing something DJ it's not a pick but you could say I'm not betting a minus 510 Milosich maybe you want to take the Kachoera plus 394 not impossible it's not an impossible feat she's a big underdog but it's still a fight and yes she should lose she should get taken down she should get out struck she should be a step behind Savage just doesn't look that good **[52:19]:** to me. Kachua KO. If you get it at plus 750, that's your deal right there. DJ Kachua KO. Milo Savage dips into a uppercut and gets flatlined. The pick is going to be Milo Savage. She's a nasty wide favorite. That makes me uninterested in, you know, betting her in a parlay or anything like that. But I think she wins by finish minus 210. I think ground and pound is live. KO's plus 175. I think sub is live. That's also plus 175. As a professional, she does have four knockout wins, two submissions, three decisions. Does she go out and just win a decision? Milo Seavage decision plus four. No, I think she wins on the ground. I think ground and pound stoppage. I think Kotachua gets shut down. So, I'm going to say Milo Savage stops her. Don't think I'm picking the opposite side. It's just I I just worry about Milo Seavage making some mistakes and choosing to give Kachera that chance by slugging. **[53:10]:** But, I'll pick Milo Savage cuz she's the better fighter. **[53:14]:** Next fight up the card, we have Billy Elakana versus Lucas Fernando. This is a fun fight. My pick is going to be Lucas Fernando because I think his striking is really good. He's a sharp kickboxer who strikes well from the outside. He's hard to hit from range. He's sharp from distance. He's got excellent jab, snappy low kicks, big body kicks. The striking tool set is absolutely sensational for Lucas Fernando. The worry with him is the inherent risk of grappling because Lucas Fernando in the past has sold on the floor. We have seen him outgrappled earlier in his career. Granted, these are middleweight fights. These are not recent, but still worth mentioning. Fernando lost to Azam Booy with grappling. Also, Caesar Almeida beat him, but these are middleweight fights. UFC debut, he looked like one of the best strikers in the division. My god, Fernando's accurate. **[54:07]:** He's got a kickboxing base and he's damn good at kickboxing. Billy Alakana cannot strike with Fernando. He doesn't have the power to deal, nor does he have the head movement and speed to deal with Fernando's kickboxing, but seems to have a good chin. Obviously got dropped by Tafa last time, but not like Alakana's getting knocked out left and right. Striking skill set for Alakana is all right. His ground game is probably his saving grace here. I think Alakana's got to get chestto chest with Fernando, hit him up against the cage and take him down. But he's gonna have to get past an 80inch reach and a guy that knows how to use it. A dangerous long distance striking style that Fernando brings to the table. Seems difficult to deal with for Billy Elakana. I think Fernando is going to end up shutting him down from the outside and potentially knocking him out. **[54:54]:** But Elakana is going to look to wrestle hard. I think he has to. He's got to get this fight to the ground. If Fernando's takedown defense flaws are shared up, which I'm predicting they are because I'm picking him to win, he should be able to light Alakana up on the feet and potentially stop him in the second or third round. But we haven't seen Fernando take on a guy that has decent wrestling in a while. So, this is the we'll find out type of fight. Fernando's striking, no argument, better. Fernando's danger on the feet way better. Way more dangerous. Fernando is way more dangerous on the feet. But Alakana is a decent grappler. He's got submissions. He's got good control. I'm gonna say though, he cannot consistently take Fernando down. May get him down once or twice. I expect Fernando to bounce back up. Then I think Fernando lights him up on the feet. **[55:40]:** And I am going to predict Fernando stoppage. I think he puts Alakana away with some power shots and gets a sick K.O. So, we're going Fernando to win in his second UFC fight, picking him by KO. I'm going to trust in the defensive grappling this time, but with a little respect towards what Eleana can do, it would be irresponsible of me not to mention on this show. But regardless, Fernando's striking is sick. There's Fernando on the scale. Looks in excellent shape. Light heavyweight Fernando seems like a different beast than middleweight Fernando. Opposite side, Elconor. He looked all right in the scale. Nothing crazy to be honest. You know, I feel like Fernando looked better on the scale. Looked better at the weigh-ins. Looked more filled out. look more intense, have better aura about him, maybe even seem more confident. Face off between the two. Heights are pretty similar. **[56:26]:** Both listed at 6' three. Even looks like Alakana is a little taller. Fernando a little bit longer and definitely more schooled in the striking department. So, we will trust in the schooled and well-refined kickboxing of Lucas Fernando to technically outwork the elacana striking. And I think he looks sharp from the outside and gets some solid shots off. I like what I saw from Fernando at the weigh-in and at the faceoff and I like the stylistic clash. It's really does Fernando have that hole closed because if it is, I don't think Alakana has a shot in a kickboxing fight. But if Fernando's takedown defense still sucks, he could get blanketed for three rounds. Minus 355 Fernando, plus 287 for Alakana. Then you're looking towards how how does Fernando pull this one off? I do think KO is possible. Plus 165 for it. KO power in both hands. **[57:17]:** Could be first, could be second, could be third. But official read would be I like him later stage. Fernando to win, you know, second or third round KO. Ah, they don't even have it. I got to read it off on my phone. Let me game parlay it. But real quick, Elcono by decision on the opposite side is plus 650. Let's see what we got here. All right, **[57:43]:** Fernando by KO and fight to reach round two. So this would be second or third round finish. You're running that, you're looking at plus 425. So I think second or third round knockout for Fernando is going to be my official call. But obviously you're getting plus money at plus 160 on knockout anyways. You don't need to chase that. That's just more of my DGen read. If Alakana wins on the opposite side, I think it's grappling dominance and consistent takedowns, but I'm gonna trust in Fernando's improvement, and I'll say he shuts down Elakana and knocks him out. **[58:17]:** Next fight up is our featured fight of the night. We got old man Davey Grant versus Elijah Smith. I like old man Davey. You guys know I back old man Davey most of the time. There's times where I don't. I didn't back him against Jordane, and I was right. I was grateful, too. I think that Davy Grant is a weird matchup for Elijah Smith because Davy Grant's got good defensive grappling and he's a non-stop pressure striker. Elijah Smith is pretty sharp with his boxing. But I'm not sold just yet. He's 24 years old. He's 10 and one as a pro. His biggest UFC win is a back andforth battle against Vince Morales. Now, since that point, he's had nice wins. He was able to beat Kazama, but Kazama not very good. though was an impressive slam and he beat his ass and he was able to sub Su Yong Yu after getting taken down a little bit in the first round. **[59:06]:** Su Yong Yu is a one-dimensional grappler. This is the most complete fighter that he has ever faced, but it's a 40 nearly 41year-old Davy Grant. Grant's got crazy volume strikes. I mean, he's non-stop. He landed over 160 significant strikes against Luna Martinetti last time out. Davy Grant's going to go go go until the wheels fall off. Does Elijah Smith have the pop in his hands to shut him off? Does he time a big shot? I don't feel good about it. Last time Davy Grant was stopped was Jordane, but it was a flying knee into the special of Jordane, which is his ghillie. Not like he was getting killed in that fight. He's got hit with a perfectly timed flying knee and then subbed. Elijah Smith pulls something miraculous out like that. You never know. It's a fist fight, but I'm seeing a 15minute battle. I feel like Davy Grant ends up outworking him to a close decision. **[59:56]:** I feel like we're going to see Davy Grant 2928. I'm picking him to win two out of the three rounds. I think Elijah Smith gets pushed hard here. He's definitely a solid prospect, but in no world do I see him as a lock against, yes, 40-year-old Davy Grant, but Davy Grant, who is the ageless wonder. He's not your typical 40. Davy Grant's been looking good. He's three and one in his last four fights. And then you dig into his losses prior to the Jordane situation. Split decision against Marcos. He has a long time ago, but could have went his way. Giannis could have went his way. Not like he's going out and getting beat up. Like very rarely is Davy Grant convincingly losing fights. He's in nailbiters all the time. To be fair, you could say on his win side. He's in scraps, too. But some unanimous decisions. **[1:00:42]:** Beat a very good athlete and Deon Blackshere. I'm going to say Dave Grant outdoes Elijah Smith over 15 minutes in what should be a fun fight. I look at Smith's offensive striking and I say good but still raw. And Davy Grant's not going to stop. And I don't know if Smith has the timing nor the oneot pop to drop Grant and keep him off of him. And it's going to be hard to stop a Davy Grant unless you really rock his But then you got to be ready for 15 hard throwing 100 plus significant strikes his way. 200 plus probably. There's Davy Grant on the scale looking in great shape. He's ready to throw a shitload of shots. You know Davy Grant's going to be non-stop all night. Elijah Smith, good prospect. Looks strong on the scale. I like what I saw from the weighin from him. **[1:01:27]:** Definitely one to keep an eye on. But right now, I'm going to trust an old man Davey. I'm not picking against him. He looks in elite shape. Even at 40, man. Face off between the two. Size of the two is similar. 24 year old Elijah Smith getting put out there against old man Davey. I'm going to trust an old man. I'mma go the big underdog here. Huge underdog. Plus 250 range is big. Plus 254 Davy Grant. I think Elijah Smith is a minus 160 favorite. makes sense because he's a prospect minus 140 even but a minus 310 doesn't make sense to me opened up at 2 to1 I think that's even why I think Elijah Smith could be a slight favorite but he's taken on a guy that has fought tons of highle competition for years doesn't seem to be slowing down it's just because he's forward now he's this huge underdog I'm going to go Davy Grant I think money line would be **[1:02:17]:** the way to run it I do think the fight goes over one and a half which is minus 230 my official read is Davy Grant on the judges scorecards getting it done in a battle. Plus 600 for that. But the money line is beautiful. In case some type of weirdness happened and he got the stoppage, you already got plus 265 for old man Davey to pull it off. If you like Elijah Smith on the other side, I know a lot of you guys might be liking Smith finish that sits at plus 115, but I don't think that's valuable enough. Man, I feel like Davy Grant very live as a dog. you know, could be a 50/50 fight. And I'm going to trust in Davy Grant's experience, his cardio, and his volume to be enough to deal with the slick offensive attack of Elijah Smith. I'll say Dave Grant pulls off the upset in our featured fight of the night. **[1:03:01]:** I'm backing him again. **[1:03:02]:** I'm going with the 40-year-old old man Davy Dubs. Next fight is our co-main event. The ladies going after it. It's Vera Janderoba versus Tatiana Suarez. My pick here is going to be Tatiana Suarez. I think it's close. It's a competitive fight between the two ladies, but I feel like Tatiana Suarez poses an interesting puzzle to Janoba because of how great Suarez is as a wrestler. Jandroba taking Suarez down, not impossible, but not highly likely. And then Suarez hitting some takedowns, I think is possible, but of course doing so with immense caution because of how good Janoba's jiu-jitsu is. Jandera could end up under Suarez and then she's going to hunt for that arm bar. I don't see Suarez getting caught in something stupid. I think it's a competitive three- round ladies fight. This is one I'm looking at the odds minus 205. This should be minus 110. **[1:03:55]:** This feels like an even Stevens fight. I'm going to say that we see Tatiana Suarez do a little bit more over 15 minutes and get that 2928 decision. But Janoba has slick grappling. Jandera is a very effective offensive wrestler typically and very good defensively. I'm curious to see what the striking looks like. I think Suarez is meaner. Suarez is three years younger, maybe a bit more volume, but Jane Dero is not a dead fish in the standup and Suarez is not known for immense punching power. So, I look at this as a pretty damn competitive fight between the girls. I'm going to trust in Suarez to back Chanderoba up more, maybe hit a couple of key takedowns, steal the rounds, or potentially just win the battle of cage control. clinch up with Janderova, back her up against the cage, and just dirty boxer. That could be a winning strategy for Suarez. **[1:04:47]:** Not what the fans are going to want to see. You might hear some Apex booze and If Dan Mkelotta is refing, it'll be separating them in seconds. But I'm going to say Suarez should be able to win Battle of Position. Whether it be actually securing takedown and controlling from top position or as simple as backing up Jan Droba and controlling her against the fence and securing control time against the cage with a little dirty boxing and winning key moments and minutes. So, I'm going to go the Suarez side. I don't think Jan Dero subs her and I think Tatiana Suarez live to do a little bit more over the 15 minutes. But you have elite level jiu-jitsu with Janoba and you have elite level wrestling with Suarez. I typically prefer to back the elite level wrestling that develops elite jiu-jitsu as opposed to the contrary. **[1:05:34]:** Ganderoba looked decent on the scale, but she is 38, but she shows some signs of slowdown. And then for Suarez, I mean, the only loss is to freaking way Lee. So, I'm going to go towards the side of Tatiana Suarez. I think she should pull it out. Face off between the ladies staring into each other's soul. It got intense at the faceoffs. I think Suarez looks ready for it. I see her outworking Jandera over the 15 minutes. Minus 200 range. See, this fight to me should be way closer odds wise. I'll take the minus 200. I think Suarez is gonna hit, but I don't know. It feels more like a minus 110. Feels like a coin flip fight. Plus 170 for Jan Droba. I'll say Suarez pulls it off. I think the ladies are going all rounds. Fight goes distance minus 325. And then Suarez by a decision, my official pick is going to be minus 125. **[1:06:25]:** I'm going to trust in her to do more over the 15 minutes and I'll say she gets the job done. We're going Tatiana Suarez to win by decision in the co-main event. **[1:06:35]:** And let's jump to the main event of the evening. If you guys have enjoyed the show, make sure you guys smash that like button. If you're new to the channel, subscribe. Be sure to hype the video, too. We got Waldo Corteza versus Johnny Walker. I'm going with Where's Waldo to go out and win. I think he's going to end up knocking Johnny Walker out. I do not trust in the durability of Johnny Walker. It is a massive problem. Waldo Corteza is a dangerous puncher with a very proper boxing style. Pretty slick defensively and finds holes and counters really well. Now, of course, you could say, but he looked gunshy as hell on his last two fights. Fair point. Curtis Blades fight, I thought he could have won the decision, but the fight prior against Volkov, it was a competitive scrap against the meritbased number one contender Vov. **[1:07:22]:** He was in a good fight. Johnny Walker is awesome offensively. He's all action, fast starter, violent style, nasty clinch knees and elbows. His specialty would probably be clashing on the inside. And we've seen some of his best finishes in that clinch, like to Khalil Roundtree back in the day. And then you look at his kicks to the legs, they're pretty nice, too. But for a Johnny Walker just outpointing Waldo for five rounds decision, it seems like they're eventually going to clash. And Walker has that open stance pressure tie style versus the more closed stance defensive boxing counter striking of Waldo. I feel like it makes sense that Waldo eventually catches Johnny Walker. In the past, we've seen the boxers give Walker massive issues over years like Jamal Hill, like you know, Mago and Klay, like Vulcan Demir. guys with pretty solid boxing have eventually been able to light Johnny Walker up because he's going to take the big risks to land the big shots. **[1:08:23]:** And with those big risks comes the counter strikes and Waldo has pretty high quality counters. I know he's been a little gunshy in the past few, but he's going to have a very aggressive guy and Johnny Walker on the other side. I do think some big damage is done in this fight and I think we're going to see Waldo secure the knockout. He had three straight knockout wins before. I think he gets back on business with a knockout win here. Love me some Johnny Walker who's not a fan. And how fun would it be if he was able to make waves here in the UFC heavyweight division, but I think Waldo is a little too much too soon now. Both guys taking this fight on a week's notice. So, you know, it's a heavyweight fight. They didn't have to make weight. We'll see what happens. **[1:09:01]:** We just saw Walker fight a month ago. We just saw the opposite side with Waldo fight a little over a month ago. They both pretty recently competed. Should both be in pretty solid shape. And uh I don't think we're going the full 25. I think Waldo shuts Walker off with the hands, puts him away. Probably second round knockout. I think he finds his timing throughout the first and then Walker gets a little overaggressive and gets countered off and dropped. So we're going to go with Waldo Cortez Acasta to get the KO in this spot. Now, as far as the fighters on the scales, I almost got too excited and jumped to the lines here. Waldo looked pretty good, especially short notice Waldo. It's typical Waldo build. No negative notes about it. Opposite side of it, Johnny Walker. He looked good, too. He came in at 239. **[1:09:46]:** Looks lean in shape. Heavyweight. Walker looks terrifying. I'm not going to sit here and lie to you and say he doesn't look terrifying. He absolutely does. Johnny Walker at heavyweight is scary, but I'm not going to believe in Johnny Walker's durability at heavyweight until he proves he can take a shot. He knocked out Mick Parkin, guys. Come on. Face off between the two. Walker a little taller. Walker also going to have a 4-in reach advantage. But, uh, the better boxer, Waldo Cortez, A Costa, I think he sneaks some big shots through that guard of Johnny Walker. Now, as far as the odds for the fight, which I was already ready to jump at, you're looking at minus 227 for Where's Waldo, plus 190 for Johnny Walker. I think this fight is pretty live to end by KO. That line is believe around minus 200, minus 285 actually. **[1:10:33]:** Not as good as I thought, but makes sense. I think it does end by KO. I got Walker knockout as the or rather Waldo knockout. D I've done this multiple times. Knock on wood, bro. Is the MMA gods trying to hint something to me as I'm talking too fast? Waldo KO around minus 115. And the official read is Waldo KO round number two, which is around plus 535. I'm going to go second round knockout for Where's Waldo as the Mystic Mack call. I think at some point throughout this fight, most likely in the first three rounds, he finds the Johnny Walker off switch as Walker goes out and gets a little too crazy, Waldo should get the hands going and she'll find some heavy shots to the head. And I think Walker's chin will unfortunately fail him here. We're going the Where's Waldo main event knockout pick to close out the prediction portion of the show, but we're not done yet. **[1:11:22]:** I quickly want to talk about the parlays. So, I added a few. I told you guys Wednesday I was going to add a few for today. We obviously have some good ones from Wednesday. Deli Conradicius minus 117 seems like a good lock city contender. Conradicious and Waldo Corteza another great option. You could potentially run Degley Waldo and get plus money on it. Bashy Conradicious. I'm calling it no sweat but I won't lie to you. I'm sweating a little bit seeing it now. I was thinking during the show I'm like you know a vicious and deadly seems pretty damn nice. So we'll call Degley Conrad Avicius that near even money city but Conradicious Bashy feels pretty damn live to come through but I hate the line. It's like minus 195 which is pretty bad and it makes you want to end up just putting it in a three-leg and adding other guys to it. **[1:12:11]:** So I could see why you'd go a different direction. Most confident pick sweep. Bashy condraious coorteza dei big five plus 251 for the most confident picks to sweep the board. The little DGEN feeling. Plus 300. Kandra Vishi is KO. Co to win. Bashi to win. Jander Robas Suarez distance. Corteza Walker by KO. I like that at plus 300. And at the bottom, the Jersey girl gangster parlay. She dropped for me. Mago finish. Lorenzo knockout. Dei Suarez plus 2,253 for the Jersey girl gangs to play. Lots of options to play this week. Cortez, Acasta, KO, Deley sub, plus 98 is two strong props. If you went Suarez decision on top of it for the prop cycle, plus 1996, definitely some good options. Of course, my opinion is always the same. Do your research, see where it lines up with mine for your highest likelihood of success. **[1:13:05]:** You throwing a couple bucks down, you want to blindly tail, it's a different conversation. But if you're really attacking these cars with substantial heat, you should be doing your own due diligence, too. All right, that right there is this week's weighing recap show. I hope you guys enjoyed it. I had a blast. Smash the likes on your way out. Subscribe if you're new. Hype the video, too. And don't forget to turn the post notifications on and share the video. Also, watch me live tomorrow, 5:00 p. p.m. Eastern time. Let's hang out. Watch the car with me. Watch me react to it all. I had a Julian Rosa reaction I put on Instagram and he ended up collaborating on the post. If you guys aren't following me on IG, I got some exclusive content I'm now dropping on Instagram. So, MMA_Experts on IG to give me a follow over there. **[1:13:45]:** I hope you guys enjoyed. Let me know in the comments what you thought of the picks. You have any pick flips? I want to hear from you. W in the comments if you got nothing to say. Much love, my people. I'll see you all in the next one and peace out.