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Introduces the data deep dive and breaks down the strongest and weakest Premier League attacks. The speaker highlights overperformers, underperformers, and which teams look best to target with defenders.
We are 10 gameweeks into the season, so it's time for a data deep dive to see what we can learn and how we can apply those learnings to our FPL teams.Welcome to FPL, Mate.My name is Dan.Yes, we're going to go over so much stuff today.And we're going to start off right away with the best attacks, the best defenses.We're going to look at the teams as a whole to see who are good and who are bad, who should we be targeting and who should we not.So, let's start off with the attacks.Now what we've seen generally in FPL and indeed the Premier League over the last season or two is actually the non-penalty XG numbers in general are down and they have been down a little bit.So um once again we are entering into a season where defenders are much more boosted much more bolstered than the attackers and we're seeing more defenders get FPL points and we're kind of seeing this with the numbers here.
So, we have got a few good attacks, teams who have genuinely been putting up good attacking numbers, but actually they're kind of limited.So, we've got Man City at the top here.Probably expected to see them round about here, but it's Bournemouth and Brighton who are also in the top three.Now, Brighton are to be expected.1.77 non-penalty xG per game.And actually, they have been overperforming that quite a bit because I know they've been the talk of the town in terms of their attack.2.6 goals per game, which is absolutely fantastic.But there has been an overperformance there.So I think we will maybe expect despite Brighton being a fantastic attack.We might expect them to drop off just a little bit.They'll still be one of the best attacks in the league.They might not keep up these kind of insane numbers.Now Bournemouth on the kind of flip side of that, they've actually been underperforming a little bit.
So they've been putting up better attacking numbers than Brighton.But actually we've seen particularly more recently they're getting closer and closer to their expected numbers.Their output is looking better and better and better.So Bournemouth certainly a team that maybe in terms of their attack we should be holding in a similar regard to Brighton who have scored a lot of goals but because of a lot of these these wonder goals theselong shots these 30 yard screamers sometimes from the halfway line in the in the cases of of Gomez for example they've had really really good uh output so expect Bournemouth to catch up with the likes of Brighton verysoon and maybe expect Man United to be there or thereabouts as well particularly under new management because what we can say about Manchester United.Yes, their defense has been horrible, and we'll come to that shortly, but their attacking numbers in general have been fantastic.
They've been taking a lot of shots, and they've been taking a lot of shots outside the box as well.Um, most shots total, most shots out the box.Um, but unlike Brighton, they've not been finishing a lot of those long range chances.And as such, their actual goal output has been an underperformance.Arsenal are in the top five here, so they're not necessarily the best attack in the league, but they are still top five.They are certainly a team that are more defense first.We know this about Arsenal by this point.Liverpool creeping up in the in the ranks here as well, taking plenty of shots, more shots than Arsenal, in fact.So, looking pretty good.Nottingham Forest, if we're talking about overperformers and underperformers, Forest are the poster children of of that underperformance at the moment.And we'll see a similar pattern when it comes to their defense.
1.49 non-penalty expected goals per game and 0.9 actual goals per game.So, a big underperformance there.Fulham, another team underperforming.Brenford overperforming a little bit actually.Um, you know, they're actually not putting up amazing numbers necessarily.And Everton, they are a typically seen as a defense first team, but actually we are seeing that their attacking numbers are kind of average in terms of the scale of the whole Premier League.Now, when we get to the worst attacks in the league, I think what we are probably looking to take from this is what fixtures, what games, what teams can we look to play our defenders against?because a lot of us thinking about going for four at the back formations, maybe some of you guys, five at the back formations, but what teams can we expect to get clean sheets against?Now, Chelsea are a an example of a team who I feel whilst there are their underlying numbers aren't necessarily amazing.
What you can see, and this is kind of really shown in their ontarget number here, 5.7 shots on target per game is really strong actually, is that their quality of shots is actually pretty decent.So whilst they are kind of lagging behind on total shots on their xG numbers, on their big chances numbers, their shots on target and their shots in the box are actually above average.So uh certainly on target, they these are some of the best numbers in the Premier League.So really high quality finishes.We've seen with the likes of Joel Pedro in particular and also Morgan Rogers.These are two really, really strong finishes.We've seen the likes of Henderson score a couple of screamers as well, including the uh the free kick of course.So overperforming Chelsea, but I do think there is some uh some evidence to suggest that we can expect them to continue to overperform a little bit.
Maybe not at the same level and we've already started to see a bit of a dip in the form of the Chelsea attack.Um but I still still think that they can you know they can score two goals per game off 1.5xG for example.So a little bit of an overperformance there perhaps.Um leads not the best uh attacks here.Crystal Palace same situation.Sunderland.Uh Spurs actually generate a decent amount of chances, but their finishing is poor.Their their volume of high quality chances is pretty poor as well.So, still not a totally convincing attack there.Aston Villa were one of the worst attacks in the league when we we made this video last time in gameweek five.We learned a lot in that video and uh we one of the things we learned was that Aston Villa were really poor in attack.are um since Jackson has come into form, since Manzambia has started playing as well, they've really started to click as a team and they were a brand new team being kind of uh put together, a lot of new
players.It took some time to gel, but we're finally starting to see the fruits of that.And I do think even though we do see Villa in 16th, um in the last few game weeks, they've been much better than 16th.And I think when we when we kind of make this video again at some point in the future, we will see Aston Villa once again continue to rise up the table here.um a team on the up.Uh Ipsswitch we expect to see here, but they are the best of the three newly promoted teams in terms of their attack, but still very much one of the the bottom few teams.Newcastle really really poor in attack so far this season.They've probably been the biggest disappointment in terms of attack so far this season.And with Arsenal and Brighton up next, not sure that's going to improve necessarily.
And Coventry and Hull clearly these are the two worst attacks in the league.0.87 87 non-penalty xG for each of these teams.Really, really weak numbers.And I think every time you have a defender who plays one of these teams, you just got to play them because these are awful, awful numbers.Um although interestingly, commentary, their header numbers are well above average.They've got that going for them at the very least.Maybe a team more focused on set pieces as we kind of saw in the Championship last season.Now, as we go through the rest of the data in today's video, I should remind you that it's all found on Fantasy Football Hub.I know some people are already on Hub, but if you're not, check it out.It is well worth looking at their their their data across all players and uh looking at some of the comparison tools, the projected points tools.
Really useful stuff.Link in the description for that.If you don't like data generally, I'd say um and you're kind of put off by it, you put off by these kind of videos, I would definitely say give it a chance.If you are using your eye test and you are seeing things on the pitch, you're seeing Spurs take 15.5 shots per game, that is just going to be reflected in the data.The reason the eye test shows you a team is taking X amount of shots, it's because they are taking X amount of shots and that is just recorded in the data.So, I think it is definitely a useful tool, particularly if you can't watch every single game in full and you know, it's practically impossible to do so.Um, I think using data like this to get an idea of how teams are doing, how players are doing when you can't see everything, you can't put that expectation on yourself.
I do think these videos uh are really useful and we certainly learned a lot in last video uh last time last the video last time and um yeah, I think that's going to be um the same situation againbecause last time we kind of identified some teams that are worth targeting, some teams that we maybe who were maybe underperforming that we could go in on like Bournemouth for example.We spoke about lots in the gameweek 5 version of this video and we identified those players and look how they're doing now absolutely fantastically.So I think hopefully we're going to be able to do the same today.
Shifts to team defenses, identifying the best clean-sheet sides and the weakest defenses to attack. It also discusses overperformance, regression, and how these trends affect FPL decisions.
But we've done the worst attacks.Let's look at some of the defenses.Well, no surprise to see Arsenal at the top of this list.Let's put it that way.Uh yeah, almost perfect scores.Absolutely impeccable numbers.Really, really impressive as a defense, aren't they?And I think you can play your Arsenal defenders against anyone including Man City uh in gameweek 12.It's a home game as well.So barely conceding any chances, barely conceding any big chances.70% clean sheet hit rate.Um expected 51% so they are overperforming but you know you can kind of understand why when you watch them as a team.Bournemouth another team with very very strong uh defensive numbers here.They've only had a 30% clean sheet hit rate so far this season, but they have been underperforming on that particularly in in the earlier parts of the season.And again, we are seeing a uh a regression to mean a progression, a progression to mean with Bournemouth as we see them pick up more and more clean sheets.
But this is a very strong defense that I think you guys should be invested in.Um particularly for this upcoming run of fixtures, maybe excluding gameweek 13.Maybe you're planning a free hit there.I know I am.Nottingham and Forest are also going to be very high with the poster children of underperformers at 38% expected clean sheet rate based on the the performances on the field but actually only 10% actual clean uh sheet hit rate.they have been massively massively underperforming and I do expect if a team is conceding this few chances we will expect them to start keeping some clean sheets and it hasn't happened so far but over the course of afull season I do think we'll see a lot more um you know actual clean sheets from Nottingham Forest and I think if you have attackers kind of like we saw with with Harland last gameweek in gameweek 10 you
can't necessarily always count on your attackers facing Nottingham Forest and maybe that is an early warning sign for Tavern owners Evan Nielson owners.I think this is a game week where you could consider may maybe benching if you if your bench is really strong, you have some strong players on your bench, you've got a bench dilemma, maybe you could entertain theidea of benching a Bournemouth attacker this week.Maybe it is a home fixer though, so I probably wouldn't in most cases, but just as a kind of a thought experiment for you guys there.Um, Liverpool really strong defense here as well.One of the top teams here alongside Man City.I do think with Man City in particular, their defenders are so expensive that actually are they good value for a fifth best um defense in the league.Are they actually going to be good value?
Probably not.Spurs, another really strong defense.They're good value for money there as well.Really high expected clean sheet hit rate.Actually, the second best expected clean sheet hit rate of the entire Premier League.Uh they they're on 40% clean actual clean sheet hit rate as well.So, four out of 10 games so far.Really strong.Brenford, pretty good numbers here.Uh but maybe uh are they underperforming?No, they're actually slightly overperforming.Leads uh they are a team that are underperforming here a little bit, but yeah, 40% clean sheet hit rate pretty strong there.Coventry maybe an underrated defense potentially.I do think they maybe struggle with uh maybe a lack of individual quality in their squad, which means whilst they can put up good defensive numbers or you know average defensive numbers, they are still going to concede goalsregardless of that.But I, you know, look, there's some good fixtures coming up for Coventry.
I don't think they're the worst team in the world for for defense.I I don't think we should be putting Coventry in the same discussion as uh maybe Hull, but certainly Ipsswitch.Commentary are a better defense uh clearly a better defense than than Ipswich.And again, maybe something to take note of if we're looking for captains if we're looking for players to target certain teams.Are commentary necessarily the the the kind of team that we need to go all out on to get players against the team?I don't know.We've got Brighton here as well in number 10.They are probably uh the biggest surprise to anyone who doesn't follow data closely because they have got the best or the joint best clean sheet hit rate alongside Arsenal.Seven out of 10 games they've got clean sheets and their data really does not reflect that at all.
They concede uh they concede plenty of chances.They conceded plenty of big chances.Um they have an expected clean sheet hit rate of 32% so under half what their actual output has been.They are conceding a lot of chances.And whilst I do think they have been improving defensively in the last version of this video, they're actually one of the very bottom teams in the entire league for expected goals conceded.They've jumped up to 10th.They have been improving, but we cannot expect them to continue at a 70% hit rate based on the data.A slight overperformance is fine, you know, at by by 10 or 20%.We can maybe expect that to continue a little bit, but to double your expected clean sheet output or more than double it is uh is just purely unsustainable.Now that said, Hull and Newcastle we've already seen are two of the weakest attacks in the league.
So we would hope that there would be clean sheets in this game, but Bournemouth away for example, I don't think you'd expect, you know, the likes of Verbugen, Buskovic, Typer to continue to keep clean sheets in some ofthe tougher games necessarily.I know they have done in some of the tough games, but you know there's one thing seeing the result and there's another thing thinking you know is this going to happen again?Can we count on it happening again?You can spin the roulette wheel three times in a row and it can rent land on red three times in a row.That doesn't necessarily mean that your fourth spin is going to be a hit on red.I know that's maybe a bit of a dodgy analogy, but you kind of hopefully understand what I'm saying.And certainly I will to Brighton's credit we have to uh kind of give a shout out to Vugan who has had such an incredible season that has had a big impact on their overperformance.
So shout out for Bugen there.When we check out the worst defenses we can suddenly see a lot of the teams that we want to target with our attackers.Now Fulham middle of the road Everton not as good of a defense as you may think.40% clean sheet hit rate but they have been another big overperformer in terms of their clean sheets.They are still conceding a lot of chances and I still think we can definitely get something out of games against Everton with our attackers.Chelsea kind of middle of the road, a little bit below average here with their defensive numbers.I guess they are conceding um quite a lot of big chances, but in in general they are not conceding uh well they they are not conceding a huge amount of total shots, but they're conceding a lot of bigchances and they're of course more likely to find the back of the net.
They have been underperforming defensively but they are not you know one of the best defenses clearly.Hull best of the uh best of the of the rest I suppose in this regard.Um they have been overperforming a little bit.They are conceding a lot of chances but they're not terrible.Not terrible.Newcastle they are terrible for our expectations.They're not one of the very bottom teams but you know they are conceding goals.Sunderland here um are definitely an interesting case where at home when they play at home actually they're top half their top 10 um for expected clean sheets, non-penalty expected goals when playing at home but their away form isso so poor defensively that they are really towards the bottom of this table now.Manchester United we know have been an awful defense.We'll see what happens under new management.Aston Villa massively overrated in terms of their defense.
We know they've been a good attack.We know they're clicking in in attack, but they have not been a good defense.And you know, we've seen evidence of that against Manchester United last game week.We've seen it against Barcelona in the Champions League.We've seen it in certain other games.They are more than capable of shipping a bunch boatload of goals.They really, really are.So whilst we like Aston Villa, maybe for their attackers, let's try not to overrate their defense too much because clearly um this is a team where you can take your attackers and play them against Aston Villa and expectto get some results.And once again, like our defenses with Hull and like our offenses, sorry, with Hull and Commentary being clearly the best uh the worst two in terms of uh of you know attacks definitely the best two to also have
two teams that I think it is pretty clear that we target these two teams with our attackers.Ipsswitch 1.87 87 non-penalty xG conceded per game.And we also have Crystal Palace right at the bottom of the table.2.19 non-penalty expected goals conceded per game.That's that's that's the same as their total xG.So, it's not like XGC.So, it's not like they've conceded penalties or anything that have skewed the numbers.No, they just are a terrible defense.Their numbers across the board are absolutely awful.Clearly rooted to the bottom of this table.Uh 10% clean sheet hit rate.really really poor.Um and it's actually a surprise that they've kept one more clean sheet than the likes of you know Ipsswitch and Manchester United because they have been that uh that poor.So uh all all hands on deck if you're looking to target certain fixtures with your attackers.
Examines individual attacking players through non-penalty xG, shots, expected assists, and expected goal involvement. The speaker points out standout options, underperformers, and players with strong underlying numbers.
These are the kind of teams that we would be looking at.Right, let's check out some players up next and we're going to look at players for their goal threat first of all and this is ordered by non-pop penalty xG.We've got some other uh no metrics as well.We're going to also order this by shots on the next slide.Um, and of course guys, if if you prefer certain stats to measure your players, that's absolutely fine.That's why I try and uh include everything on screen for you guys to have a look at.But I like primarily looking at non-penalty non-penalty expected goals as a good marker for who is a player who is getting plenty of opportunities or decent opportunities, high quality opportunities to score goals.Barry is the guy.Absolutely insane shooting numbers.really is incredible.And whilst we know he's not the best of finishers, and that's kind of reflected, 1.5 uh shots on target per game, 3.6 shots per game, 3.5 of those in the box, 1.6 headed chances per game, 2.2.
It's insane.2.2 big chances per game.He only needs to finish one of them.Um or, you know, one in three of them.And he's going to be one of the top scoring forwards in the whole season.So Barry is definitely a player whilst I know a lot of people don't like that he is not the best finisher and are kind of quite critical of him.If your numbers are this insane, you don't need to match your your your underlyings.You don't need to actually have the same output as your underlyings.If you underperform by around 15%, 15 20% that's maybe what Barry's doing.Underperforming by 20%.If you are getting um 20 xG throughout the season and you underperform by 20%, great.We'll take those 16 goals all the way to the bank.That's an absolutely fantastic return.Um particularly for 5.7 million forward and I wouldn't necessarily go for him ahead of Brenford away and Liverpool at home, but we've discussed Aston Villa being a great fixture to target.
We've discussed Fulham a little bit as well.There is definitely going to be more opportunities for Barry to either you know come off your bench if you if you have him on your bench or you know buy him in gamewing 13 potentially.Harland we expect to see here.Each has been doing really well as well if you can afford him.Decent numbers here.There is a bit of a drop off between Barry and Harland and Eac to be fair.So it is worth noting there are two clear favorite players here in terms of the non-penalty xG.Um and then we go do go drop down to the likes of EAC who we know is a great finisher.So, he has been actually really performing, overperforming a little bit.We expect that.He is a very, very high quality, high uh really world-class finisher in world football.
So, we expect an overperformance there.Uh Bobby underperformer.We probably expect that as well.So, similar numbers to Isak, but he's never going to score the same amount of goals as EAC.Jedro, another big overperformer so far this season, but the numbers are decent.The numbers are decent.And Burmo, another very much a a stats guy, a data guy.A lot of the if you're wondering you know why so many databased FPL managers are choosing Burmo in the FPL teams it's because his data is so good among midfielders.No one is putting up better non-penalty xG numbers.No one is putting up more shots.You know he is just great in that regard.So yeah that's why a lot of people do like you may not and that's totally understandable too.Evan Nilson up here as well alongside Cal Lewen similar numbers.Evan Nilson's output has been a little bit better though.
um Calbertt Leuen, uh Taanir and and maybe Brobby as well have maybe suffered from slightly less volume of shots but few high quality chances.So maybe that's been the difference there with their underperformance is because their their kind of xG is weighted into fewer shots perhaps and we're going to look at shots in a moment.Tavanir, another midfielder on this list.Plenty of high quality chances.Not too many total chances, but you know, really good positioning.That's why we see that.And Gonzalo, when we come to the underperformers, um, we're going to speak about him because my oh my, he has been so so unfortunate to score just one goal so far this season.0.41 xG per game and he's only scored 0.1 xG of his goals per game.Um, yeah, really, really rubbish.Really rubbish.I do feel sorry for anyone who has Gonzalo.
So total shots is interesting.I like total shots as a metric quite a lot or total shots per game.Um because I do feel that if a player is taking three or four shots per game, that is hat- trick material.These are the players who are capable of getting those two three goals halls.Now if a player is only taking between one and two shots per game, they may be very high quality chances and you can definitely get some goals that way.But if you're only taking one or two shots per game, you're never going to get a hat-tick.you need to be taking a lot of shots to get those mega halls.So, if you're looking for mega halls, these are the kind of players you perhaps look for.Harland, Barry, yes, we know about these players and their underlying data already.Harland's volume of shots is absolutely monstrous, 3.8 per per game.
Bruno Fernandez because of a lot of shots from range.We see a lot of these midfielders on this page because they're taking a lot of shots from range.Again, maybe going to have some hall potential there if they get a bit lucky with some of their long shots.Rashford is in here.Bit of a surprise at DAT.Bit of a surprise and Ciso a bit of a surprise to see here as well.But these are players high volume of shots.Manzambi is going to be here as another midfielder taking a lot of shots at the moment.And given his run of fixtures that spells opportunity to me, like the look of him.Palmer, as any Chelsea fan or anyone who watches Chelsea regularly can probably attest to, Palmer takes a lot of shots.Um, but they're often from a long way out and ballooning way over the bar, at least so far this season.
But, you know, you never know when one of those is going to find the back of the net.Uh and Burma we spoke about Ryan is another player actually if you're looking for volume of shots from this uh Bournemouth side maybe you're not looking at Ever Nson maybe you're not looking at Tavir maybe Ryan is actuallythe guy you're perhaps looking at.I mean to be fair his his uh whilst his non-penalty expected goal numbers 0.25 xG per game.It's not amazing.It's okay for a midfielder in a a situation where there's just a darth of of midfielders.There's barely any midfielders to pick.0.25 is actually not that bad, but his volume of shots really good.His shots in the box really, really strong here.I mean, that's, you know, after Harland, Barry, and and Burmo, he's taken the fourth uh best, well, fourth highest amount of of shots in the box here.
So, really impressive stuff.Um, so yeah, let's uh let's move on.So, I'm not going to do expected assists in too much detail because I do think this is probably one of the more noisy metrics, if you like.um because so much of your expected assists is kind of correlated with the quality of the finishes in your team.So you are going to see players with with very high expected assists who haven't necessarily got a lot of assists this season.So for example, Aobi um maybe Savio as well here.You know, these are players who are players who are creating chances but creating chances to players or teammates who are not necessarily the best finishers.So I think expected assist.I'm a little bit iffy on this metric generally, but Madawek is is uh creating the most really of any team in the Premier League, which is of any player in the Premier League, which is really impressive stuff there.
Um, we've got some other interesting players in here as well.We maybe expect to see the likes of Gibbs, Ergard, Bruno Fernandez, Pascal Gross is in here as a decent creator.He has been overperforming massively.And at this point I should note that even if a a player is overperforming or a team is overperforming that doesn't necessarily mean they are a bad pick or a bad team or a bad player.Not at all.Um but but sometimes a player can be putting up really strong underlying data but also massively overperforming on that underlying data.And that is certainly what Gross has been doing.Uh considering he has tripled his expected assists with actual assists.I don't know if we can necessarily expect him to continue at that rate, but still he is ninth for creativity if you're using this particular metric.Subsai, another player maybe been a little unlucky so far this season in terms of assists.
And let's wrap up the kind of attackers or attacking data for the players up with uh expected goal involvement generally.So yes, we're going to see Harland here.We're going to see Barry here at the top as expected and Burmo's going to get a nice little bump here from his expected assists.Again, this is kind of showing why a lot of managers do like Burma.If you are using a lot of data, if if you like data and you think data is is very indicative of what you might expect to see over a long period of time, then uh yeah, and Burma isthe kind of guy you might like here.Uh third best for expected goal involvement so far over the course of the season.Good stuff.Mad massively propped up by his creative numbers.Each still here.Tair gets a little bump up with a little bit of creativity.
Jer Pedro, Evan Nielson, Brobby kind of very much relying on that xG and Bruno Fernandez.Nice little hybrid between expected goals and uh and expected assists as a kind of a combination there.Um with a new manager, I don't know, is Bruno worth looking at?I'm looking at some of his fixtures coming up and I wonder is there some captain opportunities?Gameweek 14, for example, Harland versus Brenford away or Bruno versus Coventry at home.To be fair, we did mention that maybe Coventry aren't as bad as we thought they were, but you know, it's definitely some food for thought there.Cool.
Looks at defenders and midfielders who can earn defensive contribution points, with notes on hit rates, value, and fixture context. The section also explains why some players are better picks than others despite strong raw numbers.
Let's check out defensive contributions next.And uh yeah, in terms of defenders, there are loads of options here.We have got uh certain players who I know you guys are already looking at and other players maybe you aren't.Now, a big reason as to why you might not be looking at certain players on this list is that despite very good defensive contribution numbers, what this graphic doesn't tell you is the quality of the defense.We have already spoken about the qualities of of the defense of course but Dassi is very much a player who plays for the weakest defense in the league but is also putting up the best defensive contribution numbers.So uh if co sorry if Crystal Palace can improve defensively.Can we start to have a look at some of these Palace defenders again?We certainly were last season when their defense was a little bit better.
Can we look at that again at some point in the future?Because 12 uh 12.2 defcons per game.Remember, you need 10 or more to get two defensive contribution points.And he's averaging 12.2.It's really impressive.80% hit rate.That's also going to be the best in the league.There is no other player with a better defcon hit rate hit rate than Dassi right now.So, look, it's an interesting point, but obviously at this stage, whilst Crystal Palace continue to be such a weak defense, we have to kind of discount Dassi and Riches as picks.But I still do think it is worth noting.Now, if you're looking for uh some other defenders, Pinuk at 4.5, maybe not, but Thomas 4 million defender, his hit hit rate for Defcon is 63%.His total numbers or, you know, average numbers per game really strong there as well.
Fourth best in the league.Uh he's got some good fixtures coming up still.He's only 4 million.To me, he is the best 4 million defender in the game.Clearly, no doubt about it.Much better than any of the other options.So if you are still on a 4 million defender structure and I know some people are moving away from that myself included but if you are on a 4 million defender structure then maybe he is just a guyjust a guy.Now the player we haven't mentioned yet among the the sea of palace and Coventry who are clearly great defcon teams is Muerovic who has been a absolutely fantastic pick for defensive contributions and actually leads have been a prettygood defense generally as well.So, Mhmic really stands out on this list for so many reasons.His attack his attacking data is not too bad either.
But what's interesting about Muerovic, you might not necessarily buy him in gameweek 11 away against Chelsea, but whilst his away fixtures uh in odd gameweeks are pretty terrible across the board, his home fixtures in even gameweeks are prettymuch consistently fantastic.So if you're looking for a player to rotate in and out of your starting 11 from gameweek 12 onwards, Maharovich is your guy.Defcons, great fixtures, decent defense, 5.1 million, which is not too bad, and some attacking threat, bonus points potential as we've seen consistently this season.He's a fantastic FBO option.Let's go down the list a little further.We've got Hill and Silva.Big debate here.Who should you go for?Hill versus Silva.Well, Hill has slightly better defcons per game at 10.5 compared to Silva's 10.2.A lot of that is propped up by Hill getting uh you know, certainly one or two games where he's got an insane amount of defcons all in one game.
You got 22 in one game, for example.So, even though he's got a lot of total defcons, more than silver, actually silver's been more consistent with hitting that defcon target.Hill 60%, silver actually 70%.So, while silver is 0.5 million cheaper, better hit rate I and similar total FCON rate, um I would say silver is clearly the better of the two, I think silver is better for for bonus points.I think he's better for attacking threat as well.So, Silva clearly better than Hill, but if you did want to double up, I think that's possible with Hill.Mukle is uh is another player who's looking pretty good for the Defcon numbers.If you trust Sunderland, particularly we mentioned Sunderland when they play at home, they're pretty decent.They're pretty good.So maybe you can look to play Muki in some of those home games.Aphen Gruber, fancy Fulham maybe.
And Mendy is the pick of the bunch for Hull.Yeah, Egan has kind of dropped out of this uh list.He was in the first part of the season one of the best defcon defenders in the game, but you know, maybe that short sample size was a little bit misleading.He has dropped off quite a lot.Um few other players not on this list.Van Hecker is, you know, he's an okay Defcon defender.He is going to hit the defcon sometimes, but he's not going to be as consistent as any of these players here.Same with players like Gabrielle Concer.You guys probably think of them as Defcon defenders.Yes, they are fully capable of getting semi-regular defcons, but they are not the defcon beasts that we see on this page here.Let's move on to midfielders.So, midfielders have been a problem so far this FPL season, but can we find some defensive contribution solutions to our midfield problems?
Well, I mean, maybe Minu has got an incredible 100% Defcon hit rate so far this season.So, he's hit defensive contributions in every game that he's started.And if we expect him to continue to start, and I think we should, then, you know, you're going to get regular four or five pointers from him, maybe more towards four as Manchester United struggle for clean sheets.But, you don't know if new management things could change.Uh, and if Manu can get the odd attacking contribution, maybe there is a pick here at 5.5 million.Maybe if you want to go a bit cheaper, Palacios also another player with an incredible Defcon hit rate of 86%.So getting those regular ball recoveries in particular is leading to players like Minu and Palasios regularly hitting their Defcon goals and outside of that it drops off quite significantly with very very few players with above 50% defcon hit
rate.Very few players super reliable uh for defcons.So you got Ben here.Um I think Scott is worth mentioning.We've not seen too much of him so far this season due to injury, but he's back now.40% defcon hit rate.I think he can maybe improve on that a little bit, but if we feel he has a little bit of attacking threat, you know, whether that's from, you know, set pieces, for example, or open play in some goodfixtures coming up for Bournemouth over the long term, Scott could genuinely be a really nice little pick.So, yeah, keep an eye on Scott.I do think he's probably the highlight of this particular page.Janel is there.Sangari is rotation risk and still manages to put up good defensive contribution numbers but not very pickable.Ampedu no attacking threat and a 40% hit rate probably not pickable.
Schlaga is here as well.Adams here.Um and Garner 6 million maybe a little bit too expensive for what he's providing right now.34% Defcon hit rate and still makes the top 10.That just tells you everything you need to know about defcon midfielders.It's not the season of the defcon midfielders.Even the poster boy uh Anderson at Man City uh is no longer on this list.He has dropped off.So yeah, Defcon midfielders maybe um maybe a bit of an anomaly last season with the amount we saw because we're not seeing much this season.
Wraps up with a review of players and teams that have overperformed or underperformed their underlying data. The speaker emphasizes regression, luck, and which players still look strong despite variance.
Okay, let's whiz over the overperformers and underperformers to wrap the video up.So Jo Pedro has over overperformed this season.We know he's a good finisher.Maybe that's to be expected.Um but outside of that guys, I want you to look at this list and tell me what you first noticed.I'll tell you what I first noticed.50% of these players are Brighton players.Um, particularly Brighton defenders who we know have massively overperformed defensively Brighton.And that is kind of reflected with the players on this sheet.And I once again do want to reiterate that just because a player is overperforming on their data that doesn't mean they have bad data.Um, you know, the likes of Joel Pedro, the likes of Diper, Vuskovich, Gross, their expected points are very, very high.And even though their actual points output have have been even better than that, they still got very decent expected points numbers.
So these are good picks, they're just good picks that have been overperforming.And you know, Brighton, you you're looking at Hull and Newcastle as two of the worst uh attacks in the league.And you're thinking, well, Brighton probably going to get some more clean sheets in those games.So I'm not expect I'm not saying, you know, sell these guys, but I'm more saying with some of them, maybe manage our expectations um going into the future.maybe expect a slight regression to mean on a lot of these guys.Um Gross we mentioned as an overperformer.Churkey in in his defense, I do think the quality he has, he could potentially be a career overperformer there as well.Um so players like Shah Pedro, players like Cherokee, I think there's maybe enough evidence to suggest that they will slightly at least slightly overperform on their numbers.Maybe not to this degree, but slightly.
Conc's been very lucky.I say that as a concert owner since like game week three.He's been very very lucky um to score his goal when you wouldn't expect it to get defcon in games where he shouldn't need to do that much defending.He's been fortunate.It is what it is.We'll take those points.But uh whether that can continue into the future with Celiva back, I don't know.I don't know guys.Tarovski we know has been a little fortunate this season or a little bit uh you know a little bit of an overperformance so far this season.Manzambi's here as well.Another player who's got good underlying numbers but uh has been overperforming on those numbers and more Brighton defensive assets for Bugen.We mentioned his great goalkeeping skills has helped this a lot.Um but yeah overperformance same with Duncan another Brighton defender benefiting from that.
Now whilst luck or bad luck discussions are very very subjective I will be happy to say that anyone who has Gonzalo this season or has had Gonzalo, you guys have been unlucky.It's insane.Gonzalo is not a career underperformer.He is a player who usually matches his expected numbers when we've seen him playing for Spain, when we've seen him play uh in Spain as well.Um to score just one goal from the amount of xG he has got is is insane.Now, I'm not saying 0.41 xG is amazing.There's actually a lot of forwards that are doing slightly better than that for xG.Um nine forwards actually or is it seven forwards are doing better for XG so far this season.Um but uh yeah, still should not be this bad.It's it's bad.Uh Dou also underperforming.Merillo, we also see Gibbs White, couple of Nottingham Forest players.
Uh we expect to see them here as the whole team has been underperforming.Mawke has not been getting the assists compared to what he has been creating and he's not been getting the goals compared to how much he's been shooting.Enzo Lefay with a missed penalty is going to be on this list.Silva despite his recent heroics still has been underperforming when we look at the whole season.So more to come from him.Uh Bobby underperformer, soite same.And Barry, you know, he is his data is so so good that he's still scoring points even as a top 10 underperformer.So that's just how insane uh Tiano Barry is this season.Absolutely insane.So yeah, I wouldn't say people with Barry have been unlucky really because um he is not the best finisher necessarily and he has been getting FPL points regardless of that underperformance.
So yeah, it is what it is.Uh Barry is just uh legend of of or quickly becoming a legend of FPL I have to say.
The speaker shares a personal update about expecting a baby and how that may affect future upload schedules. He then closes by inviting viewer feedback and ending the video.
And one thing I want to acknowledge before we wrap up today's video is of course um me and my wife recently found out that we are going to be having a baby.So yes, we are due in March.We know we're going to have a little girl and we're very very excited about uh the pregnancy.So uh yeah, that happened uh recently.Well, not so recently, but now I'm I'm kind of more open with telling you guys about it.Uh lots of you guys left lovely comments on last video, so thank you very much for all of those lovely comments.And uh yeah, for now the FPL videos continue as usual.But when we get to March and the baby is here, perhaps there will be some some sleepless nights and we may have to drop down to three videos per week rather than four videos per week.
So a pre-warning for that one, but I'm very very excited about that as you can probably imagine.So yeah, good news there for me.But outside of that guys, anything you've learned from today's video, anything that I haven't mentioned maybe or just anything interesting that you've kind of figured out so far this season.I would love to hear some of your ideas, what you've learned, not just from this video, but from this Premier League season and how again we can apply that to our F teams.I know you guys have got plenty of good ideas, so let me know about them.Thank you so much for watching.Do drop a like before you go.Do subscribe as well.Feel free to join as a member of the channel if you want to enjoy all of the membership benefits.You're getting getting your team rated every week, uh joining the experts discord server and so much more stuff there.
Check that out.But until next time, I will see you later, mates.Bye-bye.