# EWZ crash | 26 Oct 2026

**Channel:** martinlukkt
**Source:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXWBRbXQGBk
**Transcript page:** https://www.withtranscript.ai/video/YXWBRbXQGBk

## Chapters

- 2:33 — Opening Market Gap and Risk
- 10:14 — Pre-Market Plan and Oil Outlook
- 20:33 — Trading Around Earnings Risk
- 23:05 — Tesla, Russell, and Short Entries
- 30:29 — Crypto Shorts and Relative Weakness
- 34:21 — Choosing Between MU and SNDK
- 38:14 — Strong Versus Weak Short Candidates
- 40:10 — QCOM Setup and Sector Correlation
- 45:24 — EMA Spacing and Trade Management
- 48:48 — Trading Both Sides Selectively
- 51:55 — Tech Weakness and Semi Breakdown
- 1:04:36 — Shorting Leaders Versus Easier Targets
- 1:12:29 — Market Bias and Probability Thinking
- 1:22:26 — Closing Remarks and Farewell

## Transcript

**[2:33]:** Sa.

**[3:01]:** Hello everyone.

**[4:17]:** Yeah, I saw the gap down today. Like I even not seeing the pre market price on the charts.

**[4:49]:** Don't have any plans on trading trading it but it could be a, it could be a mean reversal or like a little maybe a bounce on this weekly 150EMA.

**[5:17]:** But yeah I don't, I don't think it's my, my style if it's, it's just not my trait.

**[5:51]:** Xp had perfect blue flag to minus 50%. Wow.

**[6:03]:** Wow. This is, I think.

**[6:12]:** This type of stories, this type of charts always is a really, it's a really good reminder.

**[6:29]:** For the overnight gap risk especially for the developing market.

**[6:46]:** Imagine you bought the EP and then like you're up 15% last Friday last Friday and now somehow down like more than 40% two days later.

**[7:41]:** Like a heartbreak if you're in it back in 2021 there's a stock called.

**[7:55]:** Chinese drone stock e hang.

**[8:04]:** I bought this high touch flag breakout.

**[8:15]:** And I'm not setting hard stop back then just I'm just like having an alert at my stop and then I'm not setting any stop order.

**[8:27]:** So it works really well up more like 30 50% in just a few days.

**[8:35]:** And like January like I think yeah February was the, was the end of the easy money market and like all, all the small caps and the specs or the speculative names stop moving and Yihang seems like the one who is surviving and now like getting 50 move is pretty good. And then on Tuesday like after Tuesday when I wake up and I I saw the stocks it's down 60.

**[9:25]:** And then I, I sold it at the near the open like at the lows of like on on the next day.

**[9:44]:** So after this trade I never trade any Chinese stocks again.

**[10:14]:** So today at the pre market I the market is gapping higher trying to push higher. So my plan was to wait for the close above the hourly 21 if I think I will close my UVXY if the queues like close above the hourly 21 or maybe.

**[10:39]:** Dram close above this 50 EMA on the hourly charts.

**[10:48]:** But if, if, if they're not then I will keep holding all the positions.

**[14:27]:** You can see the 65 minutes EMA seems 1 hour EMA gave additional weighting to the first 30 minute candle.

**[14:46]:** I think it should be the last, the last 30 minutes candle.

**[14:55]:** I haven't tried it out yet but I, I have no plan on once switching.

**[15:02]:** I just love this 60 minute time frame.

**[16:53]:** Oil is pulling back a little bit today.

**[17:01]:** Personally I kind of like this this pullback Friday Is like it looks like it's starting to accelerate a little bit and to me like the faster it or and the more it goes higher like the higher chance we are getting a a blow off top like we get here. But if we can like slow down a little bit and just maybe go higher with a, with a much gentle slope that will be, That will be better for our short or at least better for my USO long.

**[18:00]:** With that said I'm still like like it to like hold above maybe the 4 hour 21 or, or just not found later the Fridays like the green candle low.

**[20:33]:** Do you have 40 stocks with earnings coming up soon but otherwise have a good setup.

**[20:41]:** So it depends on how soon the earnings is coming up and how good looking the setup is. So I think generally I won't take the stocks with maybe like within five days of the incoming earnings.

**[21:05]:** I think nine 95% of the time.

**[21:10]:** And even though I, I took it I was still like at least sell half or maybe just exit the position if we're, if I'm not getting enough cushion to hold into the earnings release and, and when I'm like deciding whether to hold or not I'm just going to like first maybe also the ADR matters like how fast this stock moves and also go back and look at like how volatile it is during the past maybe like five earnings. So coin is pretty volatile. Gap down like 6% this one gap down 3% gap up 8%.

**[22:16]:** This one is fine like 4% gap up and this one is down like 11%. So maybe I'll, I will take an average and like maybe if COIN is I want maybe like more than 5 or even like 7 to 8% of cushions before like before the earnings. If not then maybe I will sell half or even like sell all.

**[23:05]:** What's your opinion on Tesla today? What's special about Tesla.

**[23:14]:** It.

**[23:40]:** And how's Tesla doing today?

**[25:44]:** Russell is doing pretty strong today.

**[25:55]:** I will start to be a little bit cautious if Russell is can hold above the 21 EMA.

**[26:16]:** Right now given how, how my positions is working. I, I think right now I'm just going to wait.

**[26:34]:** And still we're not getting the extension to the downside that I want. We're still drifting downwards slowly.

**[27:19]:** Am you bouncing back into the daily 9ema and curfew up?

**[27:28]:** Oh that's a.

**[27:35]:** Pretty decent short entry in my opinion.

**[27:50]:** And if you're wrong you can easily define your entry your exit.

**[28:04]:** Yesterday like this is like the breakdown the start of the downtrend last week is like the a consolidation or like a rest bird flag.

**[28:24]:** And this is the bounce into the 9 EMA. First time ever since this breakdown.

**[28:36]:** Looking forward to see how it's going to react into this nine ema.

**[29:04]:** And today the market is also bouncing higher a little bit. So I like, I like shorting when the market is bouncing and also the stock is also bouncing into the resistance levels. I think that really favors the odds of the short side.

**[30:29]:** Sa.

**[30:55]:** It.

**[31:26]:** I started shorting mstr from 22nd of october.

**[31:38]:** But get stopped out multiple times days after.

**[31:47]:** But if I short coin from 22nd I will never get stopped out. But from the daily it's not touching any ema. I think it's the relative weakness that take into account compared to the setup.

**[32:00]:** Yes and the reason why I choose coin on Friday is definitely a little bit extended from the nine so it's not touching any daily EMAs. But I still decided to take it. It's just the all the other like the crypto names are at the resistance. Like here the MSTR is at the 9 and 21 BMNR is at the 9. Like all the 50 and 21 is also pretty clustered and we got circle.

**[32:39]:** My circle is a little bit stronger but still below this end to view up from the from this swing high and especially if you take a look on the cryptos bitcoin is the strongest among all the other cryptos. So to me although I I think like crypto as a whole is is pretty bearish after this failed breakout but I I think I would I'm going to like focus on the the one that shows relative weakness compared to like shorting the strongest cryptos among all. So that's why I'm I'm not choosing micro strategy but but actually like Friday is a really good entry in my opinion on this 15 minute breakdown and the overshoot of all the like hourly EMAs and the anchor fee web etc but it's like overshooting the 9 and 21 EMA like it's going flat or slightly declining while the bitcoin is staying under the 9 and 21.

**[33:51]:** So every bounce on the bitcoin is like is pushing into the resistance. So I think micro strategy is like a pretty good shot on Friday.

**[34:01]:** But like oh yeah on this example you can see that shorting the the weakest names this time seems working better so maybe you can take that into account and see whether it's really a better approach.

**[34:21]:** In long.

**[34:44]:** AMU does stock a good shot by his relatively strongest name in the group. What's your thoughts on this? Although SNDK isn't bouncing enough to short it.

**[35:05]:** Yeah, See. Really? Yeah, it's a good question.

**[35:30]:** Personally, I don't like shorting SNDK here, but the main reason is not because it is.

**[35:43]:** It has a like a lower, lower odds of going. Of going down compared to mu. Like maybe SNDK could have more downside compared to MU because of the relative weakness and relative strength. But if. If I keep trading like this type of extension, like it's like a little bit of chasing.

**[36:14]:** So if you sometimes like if you short here, you will gradually develop in habit and maybe like if you. You. If you're making money on. On this SNDK shots like you have a positive feedback on. On shorting at a. Like a extend extended move or maybe shorting on a resistance at a lower time frame and gradually maybe maybe you'll get a little bit impatient enough to wait for the. For the daily levels and just keep shorting the. The intraday levels that I think in long term that that could be worse.

**[37:10]:** Although like I think today is a pretty good day to short the memory names and as they have a really high correlation, I believe SNDK could have. I don't know may have a higher downside than mu. But I would still like consider prioritize shorting MU if I'm. If I have to short today.

**[38:14]:** Or.

**[38:17]:** I know I think he's in a good shop, but my question is more around. Maybe MU is an acoustic because it is the strongest in the group. Like while the others are already slightly extended down.

**[38:33]:** Yeah, I get your point.

**[38:46]:** Like, I'm not really sure about this, but from my experience.

**[38:55]:** Shorting the strong a stronger names compared to shorting a weaker names in a. In a weak sector.

**[39:06]:** With dong doesn't really affect the win rate that much.

**[39:14]:** And sometimes occasionally like the strongest name will will follow. Like we'll. We'll have a. Will have more downside. We'll make a larger.

**[39:26]:** Yeah. A larger move.

**[39:32]:** So as to catch up the Legos. But it's just occasionally and I don't find much difference in the win rate.

**[39:47]:** But I'm not sure about this one. It's just my.

**[39:53]:** Quick thoughts, my experience.

**[40:10]:** It.

**[41:26]:** Yeah, I think that's a really good topic to.

**[41:32]:** To explore like discuss about. But personally I don't. I. I just don't think it's matter that much it. And sometimes maybe just. Just try it out. Just test it out as I think mu, like technically it's not. It's really a good pullback into the declining nine and then weak sector, weak market so sometime it's just better to not all the things some maybe nuance or like a little bit of triples into within a single trade and just test it out.

**[43:12]:** Sa.

**[43:54]:** How do you read the QCOM chart? Intriguing to me as keep testing the declining 21 EMA setter looks weak but for the last two times it has a similar price reaction it breaks out and go higher.

**[44:17]:** Yeah I think a good observation so it's probably. I'm gonna. I'm gonna avoid training qcom. I think it's much easier to trade the stocks that correlates with the sector and the markets better unless I trying to like play the counter trend like unless I I'm. I won't focus on the long side but.

**[44:48]:** Yeah but I still don't quite like it now it's a.

**[44:56]:** It's staying under all the emas.

**[45:24]:** Sa, When you choose the long or short stock would you first review the fundamental analysis of the stock?

**[46:49]:** Would you close UVX flight early if spike just continues down with drifting rather than capitulation?

**[46:59]:** No like am I. I've mentioned it in the early part of the stream either the Queues close above this 2020 EMA hourly 20 EMA or I'll keep holding it like unless something. Unless I got stopped out or unless something crazy happening.

**[47:41]:** Would you say the EMAs should be close together for a better short entry? Because in mu the 9 is not close to the 21.

**[47:52]:** It's. It's definitely not a shoot.

**[48:00]:** But maybe it's. It's better like it makes a little bit it because generally if the 9 is close to the 21 it. It means this the move the stock is not.

**[48:14]:** It's not extended like probably it's going. It has gone through some type of bounce consolidation basing compared to just a quick bounce into the declining nine. But it's not a should like it's not a must.

**[48:48]:** Do you think to ever trade shorts and longs in the same market environment?

**[48:58]:** Yes. Next But I'm not good at it and I I prefer focusing on one direct.

**[49:33]:** I'd like to know what's your thoughts on entering net today.

**[49:39]:** So the 950 EMA and the anchor fever from the earnings here.

**[50:01]:** Yeah I think it's a. It's a good entry if you're focusing on the long side.

**[50:08]:** Yeah and even I mean if you. If you. If it got stopped out then.

**[50:19]:** I think it's also a pretty clear like a signal that Nest could could found some resistance on this 21 or like the 50 and potentially leading to.

**[50:37]:** To further downside. But but right now it's the. I think the entry is pretty decent like the 50 and the 9 is really close and together with the anchor vwap and it's the strongest sector right now.

**[50:59]:** It.

**[51:55]:** So even though the market is pushing higher but the Sambis is still acting weak.

**[52:02]:** Not much follow throughs within the tech universe.

**[52:15]:** That.

**[55:18]:** Okay. CBRS is probably probably one of the cleanest downtrend in this. In this semi breakdown.

**[55:36]:** And all the. And also the data centers as well.

**[59:40]:** We're not getting a strong bounce into the hourly 21. Let's see whether.

**[59:51]:** We can keep pushing. We can keep pushing higher or.

**[1:00:04]:** Or get rejected.

**[1:04:36]:** Sa.

**[1:06:31]:** Do you ever consider shorting the strongest sector and market leaders not on parabolic extensions. For example would you consider shorting stocks like Palantir, Net Cyber etc. And what would you. What would need to happen for you to think think about it.

**[1:06:52]:** If I if I'm. If I think my trading was done too well if I have too much money to lose then maybe I would think about it.

**[1:07:06]:** I don't get the point of shorting the leaders.

**[1:07:27]:** And why and what what makes you think about it actually at first.

**[1:07:39]:** Do you want to like outsmart the trend?

**[1:07:44]:** We just just have too much money to load.

**[1:08:48]:** I'm way more gentle than kk. Yeah. I think Christian would just. Just maybe just gonna ban him and and I don't.

**[1:09:04]:** Maybe maybe I should put put a banner in the. In the bottom of the.

**[1:10:38]:** I didn't mean to pick the top or anything like that. I meant there are stocks that look shortable like Net on Thursday and Friday. Okay So I think it makes much more sense.

**[1:11:03]:** Like if you're shorting on the Thursday.

**[1:11:11]:** On the first day pullback like the first day bounce. I think that, that that is fine. I think that's. That's a.

**[1:11:27]:** Logical trade like that that's a good trade maybe. But what what I don't like. I'm just. I. I just don't like shorting the strongest sector when there are so many weaker names to short.

**[1:11:42]:** And the software sector as a whole is just too strong.

**[1:11:52]:** So maybe this is like one of the illustration that the sector strength really matters.

**[1:12:29]:** It.

**[1:13:30]:** Yeah. I mean if you're. If you shorted other names too on on Thursday like if you short like some of the weaker names and maybe also shorting some cyber names like Net, then I think it's absolutely fine. But if you only focusing on shorting the cybers then maybe that's not the that's a little bit.

**[1:14:13]:** I don't know how like how maybe it's just the wrong focus maybe it's just pick the easiest easiest docs and are there any idioms for that.

**[1:14:57]:** Low hanging fruit. Yeah that's it Pick the low herring hanging fruits instead of like reaching like climbing climbing to the to the top of the tree and then grab the one that actually like tastes the same or maybe even taste worst.

**[1:15:41]:** Nice like learning a new learning English every day.

**[1:17:03]:** Seems like today is also a slow day.

**[1:17:33]:** We may consider select uxyflow yeah if the market.

**[1:17:44]:** Keeps grinding higher from here and maybe some some shorts too.

**[1:17:56]:** No yeah what I'm looking for is the is the reaction of for. For the pullback on this into the 9ema on spy.

**[1:18:20]:** If the if Russell is can like can goes further high into this gap level 150EMA together with the weekly nine I think that we could get some really good short entry there.

**[1:18:42]:** But probably that means I'm I'll get stopped out on my UVXY or some other shorts so gonna pay the price for that but if you're really reaching like that levels maybe together with the Q's it's going into the 9 EMA also the weekly 9 spy into the into the 9 and 21 like when they're all aligned I think also heavily shifted towards the short side but again like it's all about probabilities. It's not like the certainty so don't just put crazy risk into.

**[1:19:41]:** Certain trace and there are always I mean the I mean the future is always uncertain.

**[1:20:02]:** And if there's anyone that just trying to claim like that the stocks must go must go higher like certain stock bus go higher or lower like he is a scam. I don't think any successful trader would say something that was would really make certain claims. Those are the rookies those are the scammers.

**[1:22:26]:** So I think this will be the end of today's stream. Thank you guys for coming and we'll see you in the next one.