Transcript
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The speaker gives a quick read on the market, noting resistance, strong software names, and possible short setups. He mentions being already heavily positioned on the short side and not wanting to add aggressively.
Speaker A
Sa.
Hello everyone.
It.
Not seeing much today although the like the market is bouncing high a little bit but it's now railing into the resistance the declining emas But I've already got pretty high exposure on the short side so I'm not gonna double down on this one I guess.And and also like the softwares are pretty strong.There's the chance that the market can turn higher and with together with some like beaten down semi name some are little bit overextended to the downside that could have that.That could get a pull back into the maybe the 9 and 21 or even the.
So don't don't see much.
Today yeah today.
Maybe SpaceX short maybe.
He discusses whether to wait for only the highest-quality setups or stay active in the market. The segment ends with him watching how price reacts to declining moving averages and resistance.
Speaker A
Do you only pull the trigger when everything aligns like a a setup or you still execute when things are uncertain using your wrong experience since in certain spots usually gives the best return Good question and I I don't know the answer to.I think they're they both have their own like pros and cons.
Definitely you can wait for the the really good setups or your like the the really high confections ideas or your fat pitch to come and just sit out and just wait.But but there's there's also a chance that you you can miss the the great opportunities that because you you're not really in the market and like testing the water.I like personally like never never tried like completely sitting out for more than a week and then and keep waiting for the best opportunities to come.
But that's a very interesting style or approach that I would like to explore a little bit more.
Yeah because it really is the highest efficiency approach.You don't need to spend much time during apart from the best environment market environment for you.So you can go just fishing or just enjoying your life and then.
And just just wait for the the best market to come and just trying to make a home run.
But I think it's like theoretically it's possible because like most of my profits are like come from maybe only 10 or like 5% of my trades.
So if I can completely like afford or sit out during the choppy period or like they like don't take the the.The fair trades just only take the good or even like the the best trades then it's possible But I don't know whether I can really do it.
Because sometimes I kind of rely on my trade feedbacks to like.
Get they're trying to get a few.
From the market.
It.
Let's see how the market reacts to this declining emas all of Them are now at the resistance level really curious to see the reaction.
The discussion shifts to how he scales into positions and whether he waits for confirmation before adding. He explains that he often takes multiple entries quickly when the setup is strong, then applies that logic to semiconductors.
Speaker A
Sam, you move quick and put on or close a number of positions within a short span of time do you wait for your first entry to work before add a second how much progress on first before add can you explain your process?No I I don't I don't have like a hot rule on how to like increase my exposure how to build up my exposure.
Like I think sometimes generally when I really got aggressive like there there are really a lot of entries that I like to take and I just.I just try.I'm just going to try to take as much as possible okay if I can take all like I would take all but generally it's not possible like the best entry often comes within like a few minutes.
And most likely when the first one didn't work out like you I I won't get the second or like a third one.
Still in this SSPC somehow it's not stopping me up.
So many so many of you guys asking NS is good shot 9ema.
Yeah I think it's a.
Is a good one not only it looks great on on its own charts a really quick bounce into the in into the declining nine and also into this gap unfilled gap level relative weakness and also that the market it it also synchronized with the markets too I think today we got a really good short timing I think today is a really good short timing for for the general market as well the the all three indices are are rallying into the the declining GMAs so all things aligned and also Sammy's ETF into the declining so to me like I think if you're shorting any semis that would be a good entry maybe it's a little bit exaggerated but I I general generally believe like like just pick any semi slops to short today I think it's A they are all good.
He evaluates AMD as a short setup and answers questions about risk management on leveraged ETFs like TQQQ. He also explains that volume is not a major factor in his short entries, except in parabolic long setups.
Speaker A
It.
Amd at 21 year B and previous highs.
Yeah could be but could be.
Yeah I think it's it's a.It's a.
It's a great shot I think I I would like to the shots that are send me CTF a little bit more but I think AMD is still a really nice shot I just like how the like how how weak they the semi CDF is and now it's bouncing right into the gap unfilled gap at the 9ema but still AMD is A. I think the entry is pretty good it's valid if you trade like TQQQ would you still manage to stop at 1%.Why not?
What makes TQQQ different from other stocks?
Can you please explain?If there's an A plus setup, how do you see the volume when a particular stock starts breaking out?
I don't, I don't consider like I don't watch the volumes.I don't consider volumes when I'm entering any position.
Most of the time the volumes matter when I'm doing the parabolic shots or the longs.
The speaker reviews another short candidate and explains why he focuses more on the daily chart than the hourly. He says shorting above the 50 EMA is still acceptable, though he does not treat it as a major issue.
Speaker A
If short today stocks like Rocker Lab.
Touch touches the Daily 9 EMA but holding above the hourly 50 is.Is it still a good shot setup if the price is above hourly?
Yeah, I get your point.I see your point.
Most of the time I will focus on the daily most so Rocker Lab to me is.
I think it's a little bit extended but.
Yeah but it's really a really weak sector and I think today especially I, I think this pullback matches the like I think it just correlates with the market.They synchronize with the market.It's pulling back into the declining line at the same time.So I think it's.Yeah, I think it's still fine.I. I think I would still consider it as a.It's a valid short.But whether like do I have any data that really I'm very certain that I'm shorting above the 50 EMA would.Would really make no difference in the win rate.Like I'm not sure but personally I, I don't.
Yeah I don't really bother this one as as you're like shorting above the 9 above the 50 you're not going to add at those levels and I tend to focus more on the D. Sa.
He answers a question about taking small countertrend swings inside larger trends. His view is that trading with the bigger trend is usually more efficient than chasing smaller moves.
Speaker A
Is it a good idea to catch the quick and small swing move between uptrend pullback and downtrend bounce?
I don't know like.Because every trader has.Has their own style like they or their own favorites trading like tactics like entry tactics or like time frame.
But if you.If you're focusing on creating the like the counter trends within a larger trends.
To me it feels like you're like earning earning like a like a partial of the profits by like double like by double the the efforts.
Like if you can trade the bigger trend instead of trading like a smaller the small counter trend.Why bother this making a nailing a 3% move instead of nailing a 30% move.
Unless you got a really huge edge in trading those counter trends.
The conversation turns to holding a position into earnings and then to shorting after a big distribution candle. He prefers waiting for confirmation, such as an overshoot into anchor VWAP, before entering.
Speaker A
GEV has earnings tomorrow morning.Thanks for reminding.I.
Probably am gonna hold it into the earnings.
What's your opinion?On shorts after a big distribution candle after a prolonged parabolic run e.g.tWST today on shorts after big distribution candle today.
I don't know like this one if I have to show I'll wait for the anchor vwap I think like to wait for it to even like overshoot the angle vwap yeah shorting maybe a slightly above it it will be the best but I think I'm not going to like short this thing because there are like the weaker names out there.
Like it's still pretty strong.
Yeah but I don't know like it could be also like the the first lower I mean the yeah the first lower highs but it has to.It needs to prove it I think if I yeah I think overshooting the anchor vwap will be the best.
He analyzes a weak chart with multiple possible short entries across different timeframes. He emphasizes that missing the best entry can still leave room for a lower-quality but valid short.
Speaker A
Marvel seems having a good shot chance on the daily chart However I can't really find an optimal entry point using lower time frames Just wonder how you analyze this chart yeah on a daily looks pretty good on the short side.
Five minute breakdown I think it's pretty clean breakdown of the five minute candle.
Maybe even at the close below the the 1 minute 9 year make would be another entry an failed reclaim could be another entry this one is.Could be another entry I think you got a lot of entries up here if you missed the upper one maybe you can also get these entries that the suboptimal ones down here it's also possible.
Another short right here looks very vulnerable although I think a pullback into the 21 will be the best Also pushing into this swing lows.
What do you think about my short entry on SNT Hyun 9th of October on the bounce on the 50 EMA.
It's not the best one because it's a little bit extended on the daily from the 9 EMA and 21 as well.
But you know what like sometimes like a a fair entries could work very great like could work could work beautifully in the in a weak market like when you're really nailing the the trend so I think the entry is not the best one it's not like the like it's only at the hourly 9 EMA and as as I've said like not if you short at the hourly 9 like the lower time frame resistance you're gonna have a lower win rate but but if you've got to like if you can nail the timing then.
And it all matters to me the best shots is definitely like at the 9ema it's like those wakes here above here but somehow like if you miss them.So then if you miss them but still would like to like participate on the short side and I think that's a fair entry but you have to you need to know like it's going to be a very low win rate entries and if you got stopped out like like you have a pretty high chance of getting stopped out and if, if, if it's going to bounce higher into the decline 9 and 21 like you have to be prepared for the re entry.
The speaker explains why he would not short a name that is still strong within a resilient sector. He prefers waiting for a cleaner setup, ideally after a further push into resistance.
Speaker A
Do you think TAM has a good short setup today?It has been rejected by the 10 and 50 EMAs several times.
Or could those repeated rejection actually make an upside breakout more likely?
Right now I don't.
I won't consider shorting it first.It's like it's one of the place that the.
One of the strongest sector right now but bio tax softwares and like on the weekly is holding up pretty well and on the daily we got like the got a bullish reversal and then the undercut and rally the pin bar candle.I don't like shorting here.
There's a little bit too too choppy the volatility a little bit too high down here.
I don't know like I won't.I don't like shorting here.Like if I have to shot I I will wait for maybe a little bit of issues.The 21 will be the best like hit somewhere here.So maybe a little bit overshoot but I just don't not consider it.
He discusses whether to keep part of a position open to ride a trend longer. His preference is often to sell into strength to protect gains, though he considers a mixed approach for stronger names.
Speaker A
Krishna Colomadio has always said to keep some of the position left open after taking profits to let it ride the trend to the end.What do you think about that?
I I but personally I'm more like lenient on the sell on the sell side.
So sometimes I would like I'm not going to wait for the close below maybe the 9 year May or the 21 year Ma.Like sometimes I just sell the whole positions into the into the strength and especially when when I consider the market has been extended.Like maybe I I would like sell sell all of my positions or like exit the whole position somewhere here like maybe on this green candle just because I think it's.It's just so extended so stretch to the upside and it's a little bit we will I will give back a little bit too much if I wait for the pullback to the close below the nine ema but but that means that I'm gonna miss the potential like another further upside.But selling the strength has a has a pretty big advantage which is to to minimize your drawdown.To keep your equity curve at the all time highs and and to to also put your mental capital at your at the all time highs too.
You don't need to suffer from the like the drawdowns.You don't need to give back the profits the unrealized gains.To me I I tend to sell into strength more I but I but I still would like to like trying to hold as much as possible to to hold for at least maybe a week or two at least and trying to capture most of the move but maybe not all of the move and but yeah but I always sell too early because of.Because of that so maybe I'm I would trying to use like a mixed approach like sell if I got five positions five longs maybe I would sell maybe three on this day and maybe keep the strongest two and then write writing them longer writing them writing them higher.
But it's.I think selling is really hard and.
Yeah it's.
I don't really have a hard rule on that.
He briefly notes the market bouncing at the hourly 9 EMA while oil breaks lower. He then watches broader market action and waits for confirmation before changing his position.
Speaker A
Mark is bouncing at the hourly 9.
And the oil is still is looks like it's breaking lower.
Aren't you muted?Yeah I I was muted but but yeah I haven't talked a lot just focusing on on the char.
I kind of like this memory ETF overshooting the first hourly candle high and now reversing lower.Right right at this unfilled gap level.It.
I'm still deciding whether to like close maybe like UVXY or like some of my shorts.
Right now but.
A lot of the names is still at the like the resistance level.I I'm not sure like I tend to wait for a little bit to wait for some confirmation maybe seeing a more like more like strong stronger actions from from a a broader amount of names.
The speaker weighs whether to close some shorts but sees enough weakness across multiple names to stay patient. He also reviews crypto stocks and says they are at interesting levels that could break either way.
Speaker A
Like I was thinking to like maybe close some of the shores but at the same time it's just.It's just a lot of the names is really bouncing into the resistance and some the spaces is pretty weak today.S.K.henness is pretty weak today.
The is also comparatively weak intraday I let me a little bit of.
Yeah I don't know like it just made me hesitated to offer the shots.
I think cryptos is also at a pretty interesting levels could go both ways.
Some stronger names are at like the 21 like if cryptos can.
Do a solid breakout like a reversal from the 50 EMA on daily.
And then like right writing the rising nine if it can like recover from the declining nine year made that that's a.
That could be a pretty good weekly entry.
But right now it's definitely like still under the, under both the 9 and 21.
I think it could both like yeah they could go both way and I I don't know but the crypto stocks are weak.
He decides to keep monitoring for another hour or two but admits he is indecisive and the session is too quiet. The stream ends with a mention of the upcoming FOMC meeting as a possible turning point.
Speaker A
I think I was.Yeah, I'll keep monitor it maybe till.
I don't know maybe at least an hour or two try to wait for any confirmation on the upside or if we are seeing some weakness coming in.I am little bit indecisive right now.
So yeah, I don't know.I think that will be the end of the stream.It's the, it's too boring.Just, just watching, waiting and I think we will, we'll see maybe like tomorrow.Tomorrow we got FOMC and could be a turning point of this downtrend or like a trigger for, for a downside follow through.
So that's thank you guys for coming.
See you in the next one.