# Geo-Strategy Update #10: I Was Wrong. The Democrats Take Congress. **Channel:** Predictive History **Source:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNESiKXBkn4 **Transcript page:** https://www.withtranscript.ai/video/jNESiKXBkn4 ## Chapters - 0:00 — Opening Remarks and Mistakes - 1:28 — Why the Predictions Went Wrong - 8:57 — Lessons from Predictive History - 13:30 — Congress, AI, and Geopolitical Priorities - 21:53 — Trump, Democrats, and Hidden Leverage - 28:49 — APAC Summit and Future Series ## Transcript **[0:00]:** Welcome back. Good morning, class. This is Professor Jiang. I'm speaking to you from Beijing, where I'm now with my family. **[0:13]:** I'm at home, as you can see. This is my kids workspace. So a lot of you have asked for my opinions on the midterms. And so first of all, I would like to point out that I was wrong about the midterms. And quite honestly, I've been wrong about a lot of things these past few months. **[0:46]:** I was wrong about the Brazilian election. I was wrong about Alberta's referendum for independence. I was wrong about the midterms. And so I want to talk very briefly about why I was wrong and what we can learn from the fact that I was wrong. This is not to excuse or rationalize away the fact that I was wrong. **[1:11]:** I think it's important to make mistakes, and I think it's very important to learn from our mistakes. So this is a very honest dialogue as to why I was wrong and what I can learn from the fact that I was wrong. **[1:28]:** So as you know, I do predictive history. And so what I try to do is create a worldview or a model of the world that helps me explain why things are the way they are. And I can validate this worldview by making predictions. **[1:50]:** So, as you know, I believe that the major conflict in the world right now is between a globalist, as represented by Mark Carney, and a nationalist, as represented by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. And this conflict between the globalists and the nationalists, between the elite and the counter elite, is, in Peter Turchin's parlance, it is what is driving geopolitics. And this conflict is manifesting itself throughout the world, especially in local elections. So I think that what really got me in the wrong direction was that I assumed that in Brazil, Lula had a lock on the presidency. I always believed that he had a very strong voter base and his party had the political machinery in order to secure enough votes to win the presidency. **[3:02]:** And I was shocked and bewildered when in the first round of the Brazilian elections, Flavio Barciniero won. And it seemed as though mathematically it was impossible for Lula to come back in the second round. **[3:23]:** So Barcelona finished first, Lula finished second. The third, fourth and fifth place finishers were conservative, meaning their voters would have started with Barcelona. **[3:40]:** If the parties didn't exist. And so I assumed on the second round, Boxner would win by a wide margin. And I was surprised by these results because again, I thought that Brazil would be a globalist center in South America. Argentina is going on side of Trump and the Zionist. And I thought that Brazil would be a counterweight to Argentina so that Trump and his people were able to win in Brazil shocked me. **[4:13]:** I was looking for explanations as to why that's the case, and three major explanations I found was one, the Boston Arrow camp was able to galvanize the evangelicals. In the past 20 years, the evangelical voter base has jumped from about 8% of a total population to about 20%. And they are fiercely Zionist. They're very loyal to Zionism. That's factor one. Factor two was I believe that Meta and other social media companies had a lock on controlling people's perception of the world that perfected micro targeting, micro advertising, and as such, they were able to shape the political narrative which heavily benefited Boston Arrow. And number three was people were just sick and tired of LULA and its corrupt political party, and they wanted change. So they were voting not in favor of Boston Arrow, but against incumbent, which is a trend we were seeing throughout the world. **[5:23]:** And so with this in mind, with this new frequent mind, then I had to believe that the nationalists were ascended. And so what I believed, and I made this prediction was that the independence vote in Alberta would maybe reach 40%. **[5:42]:** They may not win it, but they would have a strong showing, a strong enough showing that Trump could speak out and say that maybe there was election fraud and really heavily promote Albertan independence. I was wrong about that. The independents vote only got about 20%, and most people, most voters voted to stay in Canada. With this in mind, I also assume that the midterms, the Democratic, like the midterms United States, would not go the way that most people expect. So at this time, most people are expecting the Democratics to win the House and possibly even sweep, even take the Senate. **[6:30]:** And given the fact that there was so much dark money flowing into the midterms, and given that we have absolutely no idea what these social media algorithms are doing, I thought that we might be surprised. And I thought that the Republicans might have a chance of actually keeping the House. And that's why these past few months, when I appear on different programs, I was actually giving different perspectives. So many months ago, I was surprised by Trump's apathy or really indifference towards the midterms. And. **[7:14]:** And there's a certain confidence to the Trump White House. And I assume that it was because they might have a secret plan in motion to rig the midterms or even to delay the midterms. That's something that I. That was the perspective I expressed many, many months ago after Seeing the Brazilian elections, I thought that maybe they could control the social media algorithms. And so talking to Sneako, I. I told him that I. I thought that we were surprised by the results. **[7:50]:** But what happened next was that in the second round, Lula surprised everyone by winning. And now I now have to refine my worldview and recognize that the globalists still have many tools up their sleeve in order to maintain power. And after that, I completely shifted my viewpoint and started to believe that the Democrats would sweep Congress. And that's exactly what happened. The only debate was, would it be a blue wave or blue tsunami? It turned out to be a blue tsunami. And the Democrats won not just the House and the Senate, but they also won a majority of the governorships in the United States. They even flipped Texas, which surprised everyone. Texas is no longer red, it is now purple. And this is something that has major implications for the 2028 race. **[8:55]:** So that's what happened. **[8:57]:** Okay, so again, I admit I was wrong. But what we need to appreciate is you have to take the risk of being wrong. I had absolutely no idea what would happen in these midterms. I couldn't really figure it out because I didn't have access to enough information. **[9:18]:** As more information came rolling in, I started to make adjustments. And so that's how you do predictive history. You don't have a prediction. You stick to this prediction. You have a worldview, and that's what you really want. **[9:34]:** You want the analysis, and then from the analysis, you have the prediction. And if more information comes in to change your analysis, then you have to put. Then you have to change your prediction. So for the past two weeks, I was predicting that the Democrats would sweep Congress. So having said that, having explained what happened, I'm not going to explain what I think is going to happen now that the Democrats control Congress. **[10:06]:** And so reporting that's been coming out recently is that Hakeem Jeffries will become speaker of the House, and. And Chuck Schumer will be Senate Majority Leader. These are two very unpopular Democratic politicians. I think. Jeffrey, have. Jeff. Sorry. I think Hakeem Jeffries has a fair value rating, about 80%. Chuck Schumer, about 13%. Okay, so the Democratic base really do not like these two individuals. **[10:42]:** And both are extremely beholden to AIPAC and, and issue a lobby. And it was clear in this election the American voters did not want the United States to continue this war in Iran. And the American voter does not appreciate United States close relationship with Israel. Okay, so it seems to me that because Hakeem Jeffries will become House Speaker. And because Chuck Schumer will become Senate Majority Leader, the agenda is pretty much set. **[11:24]:** The Democrats have been saying that they need to focus on economic growth and on improving the lives of the American voter. So this next two years will not be a vendetta. It will not be about trying to impeach Trump and try to remove him from office. It'll be about working with him to get things done. Okay, so what this means, basically, is that in these next two years, you will see pretty close cooperation between the Trump White House and the Democratic Congress. **[12:04]:** What people don't appreciate is that Trump doesn't do really well when he's in control, when he's popular, when everyone is on his side, when he has control over government, he kind of screws up. Okay? He doesn't really know what he's doing. But when he's the underdog, when the entire world is against him, when the Democrats are hostile and they control Congress and they're trying to impeach him, that's when Trump is at his best. And so I think Trump is actually looking forward to cooperating, but also competing with a Democratic Congress. **[12:51]:** And honestly, a lot of the agenda is already set for these next two years. Yes, I know the Democrats have discussed things such as introducing Medicare for all and about improving the minimum wage. They're not going to do these things because they didn't do these things when they had control of the presidency and Congress a few years back. They did absolutely nothing during the Biden years, so why would they start doing things today? Okay, so they. **[13:24]:** So that's not something that we should even consider. **[13:30]:** So. And also, we have to recognize that there are geopolitical events in motion that's basically going to determine what Congress is going to do for next two years. The first major thing on the agenda is the AI bubble collapse. We're seeing it today where Nvidia has dropped about 8, 9%. And Nvidia is really the linchpin of the air bubble. **[13:57]:** And they're already talking about an AI bailout for these companies. These companies, there's about seven of them, represent 50% of GDP growth. Data centers are a huge part of the economy. And quite honestly, these AI companies have spent a lot of money on the midterms. They control a lot of Congresspeople. **[14:22]:** And you can expect that eventually Trump and Congress will work together to bail out these AI companies. There's a mystery as to why these companies are declining in value. Some speculate that because investors are wary and they really don't know how these companies will turn a profit. The real explanation, it's much simpler, which is the petrodollar system is collapsing. For the longest time, China, Japan and the GCC were recycling a lot of the US Dollars back into the US economy, which allowed for the creation of bubbles, including the dot com bubble, the subprime bubble, and now the AI bubble. **[15:12]:** Now, because of the war in the Middle East, Japan and Saudi Arabia have liquidity issues. And so Saudi Arabia is forced to sell a lot of gold. That's why gold prices are going down. And Saudi Arabia is now also forced to sell a lot of investments in the United States in order to finance the government operations. That's the real reason. **[15:33]:** Which means that this AI bubble, it's dead. Okay? There's absolutely no way to save the AI bubble, in which case the government has no choice to come and bail out these companies and take a natural stake in these major companies like open AI. So the only speculation is how much the belt will be. It could be as high as $2 trillion. **[15:59]:** Because not only do they need to save these companies, but they also need to invest in these companies for their bailout to build more data centers. Because that's the first thing on the agenda that's basically fixed. Second thing that is basically fixed is cooperation between Israel and the United States. So, as you know, the United states gives Israel $4 billion a year. And Trump has announced that this year in December, the United States will not give Israel this payout. **[16:33]:** And by doing this, what Trump is really doing is forcing Democratic Congress to authorize the ndaa. What the NDAA is doing, what it will do is merge the high tech research centers of both Israel and the United States. And essentially this is Israel's back door into the United States. $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget. Already, the United States and Israel work very closely on high tech research. **[17:04]:** An example is Stuznek, this virus developed by both the United States and Israel to sabotage the Iranian nuclear program. So there's already been a lot of cooperation, but this NDAA would formalize this cooperation, allow Israel to access the United States $1.5 trillion military budget. Okay, That I think is pretty much set. Congress will authorize this. The third thing is Congress will authorize this war in Iran. **[17:42]:** Now, as you know, Congress has yet to authorize this war. Only Congress has the power to declare war. And so what I think Trump's going to do, and this is a bold prediction that I'm going to make. Okay? But I'm going to make it now, which is for these next two months, before Congress is sworn in, before the Democrats take the gavel in both the House and the Senate, there will be a hiatus on this war. **[18:11]:** There may be some flare ups, okay? There may be some bombings, there may be some attacks, but there will be no major escalation of this war. War. Okay, when I mean escalation, I mean that Trump authorized a nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain. Or Trump authorizes the Marines to seize Khark island or Kassam island. **[18:35]:** Or Trump authorizes a major bombing campaign to take out the critical civilian infrastructure of the Iranians, including power plants, desalination plants. None of this will happen. These two next two months will be fairly quiet. The world will still burn. There'll still be protests in Europe. **[18:55]:** There'll still be financial collapse throughout the world. But this US Iran war will go on hiatus until January. Okay? After January, once Congress comes in, they're sworn in, then all bets are off. I think there may be a false flag event or maybe Trump just takes an initiative and starts to attack Iran. **[19:23]:** But I think that by March we will have ground troops in Iran. And either Congress will authorize this or Congress will not say anything about this Iran order to cover their ass. But by not saying anything, by not stopping this, Congress will be complicit in this ground nation of Iran. Another thing that I think may, may be tabled is the Clarity Act. So right now the United States is trying to replace the petrodol system or with a stablecoin system. **[20:06]:** And the idea is, okay, for the longest time what happened was that Saudi Arabia would sell its oil in exchange for US Dollars and then recycle these US Dollars back into the US Economy. And this is what allowed the United States to spend far beyond its means and to eventually have a $40 trillion budget. Sorry, sorry. To have a $40 trillion debt crisis. And now that Saudi Arabia and the petrodollar system are breaking down, how do you get more financing for your debt? **[20:46]:** And the best way to do that is by getting retail consumers around the world to buy into this debt through stable coins. Okay, so the idea of stablecoins is it is digital tokens, digital currency that is backed by US Treasuries. And so before it was institutions that bought US Treasuries. And now with stablecoins that can be sold by JP Morgan, by Apple, by Google, anyone in the world can participate and buy U.S. treasuries, including Japanese Chinese savers. And these are the major savers around the world. **[21:30]:** And for this to happen, basically, Congress needs to authorize a regulatory framework for stable coins and something called the Clarity Act. So I think that to save the US economy, to continue to finance the United States $40 trillion debt, what Congress will do is authorize the Clarity Act. **[21:53]:** So a lot of the agenda is already set and there's really not much the Democrats can do about it because they're beholden to the donors and they're also beholden to major geopolitical crises. Now, what's interesting is that some game theorists, okay, or some political analysts are like, you know what? Trump has veto power. **[22:22]:** So if the Democrats were really smart, what they could do is call Trump's bluff. Okay? So, for example, the Democrats could basically say, we will no longer finance this war in Iran, okay? They could they pass a resolution, we which stops the United States from able to finance this war in Iran because Congress has the power of the purse, right? The Democrats could also pass a resolution to demand the release of the Epstein files. **[22:58]:** And so Congress can do this, which will force Trump to veto these bills, in which case Trump comes across as a bad guy. Okay? And that's what some people think. That is Democrats best play. There's a problem with the strategy, though, okay? This is a really important problem, which is Trump is not predictable. Okay? Most politicians, most presidents, if they're presented with these things, would have no choice but to veto because that is in the rational best interest. But you don't need know what Trump is going to do. So, for example, Congress says you have to release Epstein files. They pass a bill demanding the Department of Justice release all the Epstein files unredacted. Okay? It goes to Trump. And in theory, Trump should veto this bill. But what if Trump signs the bill, then the Democrat, then all the Epstein files are released. **[23:59]:** And who's in the Epstein files? A lot of Democrats, including Bill Clinton. All right? And so if you're the Democratic Party, would you want to take this chance? There is a maybe 5 to 10% chance of Trump actually signing the bill. **[24:16]:** There's a 9% chance of him reading the bill. But if you're the Democratic Party, would you take this chance? You do not take this chance. Okay? So basically because Trump is so unpredictable, you don't actually want to risk anything with this guy, okay? And that's why the Democrats are going to adopt a very conservative posture and they'll just go along with administration because they don't want to piss off their donors. All right? Ultimately, at the end of the day, if you look at what's been released of the Epson files. There are a lot of Democrats in the Epstein files, including Bill Clinton, including Larry Summers, who for the longest time was one of the major Democratic operatives in Washington, D.C. you can argue Larry Summers is actually a much more powerful person than Bill Clinton. Okay? But there are a lot of Democrats in the Epstein files, and the Democratic Party cannot afford for these files to be released. **[25:15]:** And so it's strange to think about this, but really, for the next two years, Trump has much more leverage over the Democratic Party than the Democratic Party has over Trump. Right? The Democrats could impeach Trump, but we know what will happen, which is nothing. Okay? **[25:37]:** There'll be a trial, nothing will be uncovered, and Trump will go away scot free, and it will just be a complete waste of time. But if Trump releases the Epstein files, then this could really damage the Democratic Party. Now, I know what a lot of you are thinking, which is. But Trump is in the Epstein files, and I'm telling you guys, he is not in the Epstein files. I know this is hard for you to appreciate, but the thing to remember about Donald Trump is the guy does not drink, okay? He has tremendous discipline. He has the discipline of a monk. He's ascetic. And you're like, wait, that makes no sense. No, actually go and look at his life, okay? **[26:19]:** He does not drink. Imagine a guy who's the host of this grand party of a thousand people. These are all celebrities, beautiful women, they're all getting drunk, they're all doing drugs, they're all having sex. And Trump is just sitting on the back and observing and doing nothing. This guy was mentored by Roy Cole, who for the longest time was the Epstein. **[26:40]:** Before Epstein, he was one of the major blackmailers of Washington D.C. so Trump knows how to avoid being blackmailed. Trump knows how to do the most immoral, dangerous, insane, criminal things by actually breaking the law. Okay? So. So he is not in Epstein files. **[27:02]:** If he were in Epstein files, the Biden White House would have released Epstein files four years ago. All right? **[27:14]:** So Trump and the Democrats are almost at a stalemate. So what will happen is the Democrats will subpoena people in the Trump White House and hope that during this investigation process, people like Jared Kushner, Peter Hegseth will reveal things that incriminate Trump. It will not happen. Okay? Yes. Jerry Cushion will be brought before the House and there'll be days and days of congressional testimony where Jared Kushner is shown to be the great villain of the Trump White House. But nothing he said, he says will implicate Trump and ultimately Trump will give his son in law a pardon. Okay? And this is very similar to what happened during the Iran Contra scandal. So it'll be complete waste of time. **[28:13]:** But the Democrats will create this theater because it is to disguise the fact that behind the scenes, Congress and the White House are working together to continue this war in Iran, to bail the industry, to create the cryptocurrency framework of stablecoins, to pass the ndaa. Okay? You'll see a lot of theater, you'll see a lot of conflict between the Democratic Party and Trump, but really behind the scenes, they're working together to promote an imperial agenda. **[28:49]:** So something else that I think we should watch out for or next few few weeks is the APAC summit. Okay? Because for the first time in a long time, all three world leaders, all three major world leaders, Donald Trump, United States, Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping of China will meet together in Shenzhen. It has not been officially announced, but all three are scheduled to be in Shenzhen. And there's already talk that there will be a summit amongst these three leaders, very much like Yalta, to possibly divide up the world. This, look, I think this conference will happen. I think this summit will happen. **[29:38]:** I think it will go very well. I think there could be some very concrete outcomes of the summit, including discussion of Russia and China helping the United States discover a face saving exit from this war, okay? Including the United States and China helping Russia sign a treaty with Ukraine to end this war in Ukraine. And China will be the mediator. China will be brought in to bring peace in the world. **[30:13]:** And I think that summit will, will excite a lot of people. But at the end of the day, it's not going to happen because there are too many jubil forces at work. And even though all three leaders are committed to global peace, world events will disrupt this peace and will go back to war. So those are my predictions for the next two months. Okay? **[30:41]:** In this transition period, Trump will not escalate the war in Iran, but global crises will continue, including the AI bubble collapse, including riots, protests, essentially civil war and political unrest throughout Europe. You'll have global supply shocks throughout the world. Saudi Arabia and the Houthis will continue their struggle. So global crises will continue to build up, but this war in Iran will be delayed until Congress takes office. Once Congress takes office, once the Democrats become the leaders of Congress, then they have to respond to global crises. **[31:32]:** This APAC summit in mid November, only a couple weeks away, it will be vital and I think a lot of attention will be focused on it. So if you're a subscriber, we will have a zoom discussion after the APAC summit concludes. So I understand also that some of you have a question which is like, when is this occult series coming out? Okay, I promise you this occult series, and I've been working hard on it for the past few months. I just finished this book called Sabbathay Sevi by Gershom Salam, who is really the foremost scholar of the Kabbalah, and he is one of the greatest Jewish historians who ever lived. He's Israeli, and his books are basically college textbooks in Israel. And this is a fantastic book, so I highly recommend you guys to pick it up. When I do the occult series, I'll be referencing this book quite a great deal. **[32:45]:** And once you understand Sabad Zevi, once you understand Jacob Frank, once you understand the Kabbalah, everything flows together, okay? So I promise you that once this series is out, you. **[32:55]:** You'll love it. It'll be my best series yet. For me, the main issue is logistics. Like, now that I've left the school in Beijing, where do I film the series? And so I need to figure this out. I'll probably figure this out over the next month, in which case I should be able to film the series starting in January or February. Okay? So I promise you the series will come out at the latest next spring. I promise you this will be my best series yet. I promise you that when you see the series, everything will make sense to you, okay? **[33:31]:** How the world works, why these politicians do what they do, what drives go, events. It'll all come together in one coherent narrative and you'll have a really. You'll feel liberated. You also feel empowered, okay? And so I. I want to take my time. **[33:49]:** I want to make sure things are perfect before I actually do the series. And I promise you, you guys will love it. Okay? So that is it from me, and I will see you guys next time.