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The speaker opens the Week 8 Sunday breakdown and previews Baltimore vs. Buffalo, focusing on Ravens passing matchups, Bills defensive weaknesses, and key fantasy angles like Shakir, Andrews, and Lamar Jackson.
Speaker A
Week 8 Sunday NFL breakdowns Everything you need to know for your fantasy teams and player projections in 30 minutes.If you're new, welcome.My name is Max.I make these for every game on Sunday as well as every primetime game to give you a unique edge looking at run scheme metrics, coverage data and schematic trends nobody talks about.If you enjoy that stuff, hit the subscribe button so you don't miss any more of this content.We're on the road to 50k.We are almost there.Let's get into it.Leave a Like if you haven't already.As we go through these games I will highlight which team I think is going to win.We're going to start with Baltimore Buffalo potentially the game of the week.Couple notes about the Ravens defense don't allow a ton of running back receiving production.They're middle of the pack in terms of pass game allowed and are allowing 181.6 wide receiver yards per game.
A lot of that has come in the slot.You go look at some of these game logs against the Baltimore Ravens.It's been the guys who really dominate between the hashes that have caused a lot of problems for them, right?CD Lamb had 112.Carnel Tate not really like a slot guy.Drake London all over the field.You can look Casey Concepcion 4 for 37 but Judy also from some from the slot.Excuse me.Jamar Chase got in the end zone.A higher percentage of their routes allowed are coming from the slot compared to the outside.That's why I like Khalil Shakir in this game.Three last games against the Ravens for Shakir as well.60 plus yards, 17 touchdowns on 26 red zone trips.12th worst in the NFL.On the other side, Buffalo allowing a lot of pass yards per game, right?2nd worst in pass yards per game allowed.
That's almost 300 per game.
3rd worst in running back receptions allowed.2nd 2nd worst in running back receiving yards allowed in the last two games.348 pass yards per game allowed.You look at some of these quarterback production or the quarterback production against the Buffalo Bills lately it's been pretty bad, right?It's back to back 310 yard but 300 plus yard passers 1, 2, 3 all year.And the worst, the lowest yardage posted against the Buffalo Bills through the air is 226 yards.So Lamar Jackson, no injury designation back for this game.I think he could have a big game.The other thing I want to note is a tight end production because when you look at the Buffalo Bills like obviously they struggle through the air against receivers.They're middle of the pack against the run.It's Derrick Henry, he's going to be fine.But look at the tight end production as of late.
Michael Mayer before the buy 77 for 95 and Bowers also had 70.Tyler Higby had 5 for 83.Hunter Henry had 5 for 62.Chargers don't really use tight end.Laporta had 6 for 52.He got in the end zone.The only reason this is not really standing out in terms of like fantasy points per game is because there hasn't been a lot of touchdowns from tight ends.Look at some of the other guys who were taking touchdowns, right?Like Trey Tucker had two, Devonte Adams had two, Puka Nukua had one, you had three from Patriots receivers.I think Mark Andrews could get pretty heavily involved here.They play a lot of zone that feeds into Mark Andrews.77 1/2 Titan yards per game and then 173.8 wide receiver yards per game.This is a Flowers game.Look, here's the bottom line.I think the Ravens have too much talent defensively to lose this game, right?
I think both offenses going to have their success going to score their points when push comes to shove.I trust the Ravens with the ball against that Bills defense that's really struggled more than I do with the Bills offense against the Ravens defense.So I'm going to rock with Baltimore even with Buffalo off a buy.
This chapter covers Tennessee vs. Cincinnati and Arizona vs. Dallas, highlighting Chase Brown, slot production against the Bengals, and the offensive outlook for Dallas and Arizona in a high-scoring matchup.
Speaker A
Tennessee vs. Cincinnati look if Chase Brown doesn't do it this game I don't know when he's going to do it.Guys, he's one of two running backs in the NFL.We'll talk about the other one with three plus more expected fantasy points per game than actual fantasy points per game.He's going to get there sometime.Bengals are double digit favorites.3rd highest projected total Titans defense that was already 7th worst against the run in terms of yards per game.Now without Jeffrey Simmons they were seventh worth with Jeffrey Simmons.If this isn't the week I don't know when it will be guys.Titans defense 131 rush yards per game.Loud 245.7 pass yards per game loud 1 almost 280 pass yards per game allowed in the last three so I think Cincinnati going to have success really offensively now apparently there is some rain in the forecast.
Going to look into that a little bit more again you won't really know till Sunday morning if anything dramatically changes.I'll pin that in the comments but I'm not super worried about that on the other side, Bengals defense plays a lot of men and they're really, really, really susceptible in the slot.Carnell Tate is out for or he's doubtful.Actually, no, he's officially ruled out.Excuse me, officially ruled out at this point.
But you can see a lot of production against the Bengals has come in the slot, right?Zay flowers 8 for 137.Even 137, that's crazy.And even some tight end production between the hashes.Dalton Schultz had a big game.Bretton Strange had a big game.All of these guys like Roman Wilson going back up.Even Chris Godwin 4 for 40.Like these guys are producing in the slot.Really respective to the other guys around them on the roster.
That to me says Wandale Robinson.The only thing is, I don't know if the Titans offense is going to have that much success.Overall, Bengals defense is allowing 253.8 pass yards per game.It just hasn't really been on the outside.They're really struggling against tight ends.That's the only thing to really note here.And when you go look at the game logs for the Tennessee Titans at that position, like, nothing truly stands out, right?Like, yeah, Gunner Helm leading hit 3 for 24 last week.He is the most catches and the most yards.But I do that math real quick.That's.That's not 100 yards.Like, that's not even 100 yards through seven games.So, you know, maybe Gunner Helm does something right.But I really think the, the potential edge for the Titans is Wandale Robinson between the hashes.I'm not super high on Tony Pollard, right?
Bengals have been pretty good against running backs all year long.Overall, fourth fewest running back fantasy points per game.Titans have the fourth lowest projected total this week.I don't think they're going to score a ton of points.
It's also worth talking about.The Bengals are fifth in terms of defensive success rate against the run and then first in stuff rate, which is how often a run goes for zero or fewer yards.So I don't love Tennessee's offense against Cincy.I got Cincy at home this one.I don't think it's particularly close.
Arizona versus Dallas Cardinals defense, second most zone, second least.Man to man.That leads to CD Lamb.Now the middle field open, which the Cardinals run more than anybody.And they're the third worst in terms of fantasy points per drop back in tends to lead to Ryan Flournoy.
It has in the past.We've seen it in the past.They're bad in the red zone.9th worst red zone defense, 243.7 pass yards allowed.That's 12.
Not a ton of running back receiving production, but they themselves have not been great against running backs, especially as of late.The bottom line is the Cardinals are not a great defensive unit, but they could play that bend, don't break brand of football because of how much zone they play, how often they keep it in front of them.They're so bad in the red zone or they have been so bad in the red zone.So I think Dallas has a lot of success offensively through the last three weeks.0.132 EPA per play.It's the fourth worst.It's gotten worse in terms of EPA per play the last three weeks compared to the season.Basically saying the Arizona Cardinals defense has not been playing well.Now on the other side, Jeremiah Love is back.That's a huge edge for them offensively, especially this Dallas defense, given the second most rush yards per game in the NFL.
We talked about that Monday night breakdown last week and how we thought the Eagles could have a lot of success on the ground.And.And we were, I think robbed of a big Saquon game because of that injury.Right?Like the guy had, what was it, 49 yards, I think on his first three touches or something crazy and finished with seven for 62.And then Damian Pierce still almost had 50.Like it almost doesn't matter who's out there, unless it's the Green Bay packers or Houston Texans who barely run the ball, they're going to have success on the ground.Bucky Irving had 165, Derek Henry had 89 and two touchdowns.Washington, you know, kind of a committee, if you will, you know, combined for more than 100 in a game where they were getting blown out.And then obviously the Giants had a ton of success week one.
So whoever is out there for Arizona, it probably will be Jeremiah Love I think is in for a big one.They also have a bad red zone defense.10th worst red zone defense in the NFL.20 touchdowns on 30 drives.2/3 of the time they're letting up a touchdown.
22.7 running back receiving yards per game.Here's the reality with this game.High scoring game.I think Arizona could hang around, but I do think Dallas's defense is getting a little bit better and not great.It's not great.But I think the addition of Joey Porter Jr. Has improved this defense.After getting Joey Porter Jr.They've played a little bit more man coverage.They're a little more susceptible between the hashes that's why I really like Kendrick bourne and Trey McBride.I like Michael Wilson in this game as well, but he's probably going to get joy.Poor junior shadow closer game than people think.But I think Dallas takes this one at home.I I think they're honestly playing decent football right now.Dak is playing really well.I think they they take that one at home.
The analysis shifts to Minnesota vs. Detroit and Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville, emphasizing defensive tendencies, explosive passing opportunities, and why the Jaguars are favored at home.
Speaker A
Minnesota vs.Troy per fantasy points data the Lions are allowing 0.73 fantasy points per drop back in man coverage.That's the only team in the NFL that's bottom five in fantasy points per drop back in man to man.That's also just playing it at a top 12 rate.I feel like every single time I come on here and talk about the lines I say the same thing.
Same thing.Why do they play as much man as they do?And honestly this maybe they are listening to me this year it's decreased a little bit but it's still a good amount.Right Kyler against man to man Justin Jefferson's the most explosive.He's also the most frequently targeted player against middle field close.
That's important because the lions are top 10 in middle field closed.That's what they do.They close the middle of the field.They have one on ones on the outside.Now before we get more into the Lions defense, it's worth talking about the Vikings defense just in how good they are, right?Yards per play EPA less than 55 completion percentage should be compared to pressuring on more than half or a little less than half.Excuse me.The drop back split on 70% of plays 3rd most zone 2nd fewest pass yards per game loud not most.They're unbelievable on defense the only slight susceptibility is out wide.Now if you watched my buy low sell high with Yahoo this week I was a little less bullish on Jameson Williams.Like I think he was a sell coming off those big games.
I find it hard to believe he produces again this week.That's why I kind of wanted to sell.But it is worth noting what happened week one against the Vikings and that was a couple broken plays.But out wide bigger bodied not bigger body like primarily outside wide receivers who had good games.Golden At 95 Watson had won 47 and two touchdowns.But you go through the rest of the receivers that have played against the Minnesota Vikings and granted you know there hasn't been crazy crazy talent that walk through here.Mechan book at 62 that was with Baker I believe.Yeah, with Baker for most of the game no Bear had more than 45 yards.Malik Washington That's a slot guy.They haven't played a ton of true dominant guys outside of Chris Olave.Chris Olave was held to to four catches of 46 yards.
So part of me thinks this is some.
I'm not calling the bluff because they don't throw to Jameson Williams that much, but I think explosives could be there.I'm just not convinced the volume will be there for Jameson Williams.If there's one place, one place that Detroit could attack over the top to get chunk plays, that's where it is now.On the other side, the Lions defense has been so bad, right?100 plus tight end yards per game.
186.2 wide receiver yards per game.It's a bottom 10 red zone defense.The Vikings red zone offense has been really bad.We saw on Thursday night what happens.A lot of times that leads to the red zone offense figuring it out.Packers awful red zone offense.Pick Panthers awful red zone defense.What gives?Packers went 4 for 4 in the red zone.Generally speaking, that's how it's gone in the past and it's not just an NFC north thing, it's just an NFL thing.
But I think this could be the game where the Vikings figure it out offensively.Like this is the ultimate offense.I won't say that.I think next week against the Bills is honestly the ultimate offensive get right game.This is a pretty nice offensive get right game, especially for Kyler Murray.313 pass yards a game allowed.That's the most in the NFL.Kirby Joseph is back, which is important to note and I really do think that this Lions team is in need of a defensive or secondary difference maker and he could provide that.But it's his first time playing football in a long time, like in a while.So he's obviously a very good player and he's going to step in and make an impact.I don't know how big that impact will be.And I think on the other side of the ball the Vikings defense is just playing that good.
So I think Minnesota takes this game against Detroit.I think it's going to be a great game.Close game, but I got Minnesota.
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville.The Jaguars defense has been unbelievable.Few fewest rush yards per carry allowed through eight weeks.Fewest rush yards per game allowed.Less than 90 running back yards per game.That's scrimmage, not just rushing.That's rushing and receiving.They're pressuring on almost half their draft drop backs or the opponent's drop backs, meaning they're generating pressure, not blitzing.The only thing is they're bad through the air.Now part of me thinks they're bad through the air because teams don't want to run the ball against them and I don't blame them.
But.But 210 wide receiver yards per game.That's the most in the league.Most outside wide receiver yards per game as well.I'm watching Keenan allen in this one.72% of his routes are from the outside and in the last three Vikings are.Sorry Vikings, Jaguars are allowing 40 plus fantasy points per game to outside wide or sorry wide receivers.Overall I think there's a pass heavy game script too right.Jacksonville is projected I believe the 4th most points but top 5 in points this week.Indianapolis nowhere near there.
They're struggling.They just traded the Forest Buckner.They just traded Quentin Nelson.I don't think there's going to be a lot of success on the offensive side for Indianapolis if that happens.They're behind the change.They're behind the game script.I expect some Keenan Allen volume.4th best red zone defense, 3rd most pass yards per game allowed.5 1/2 running back receptions allowed.So they're allowing for some running back receiving production but they're tackling up.It's not a ton after the catch.The Colts defense six most man to man in the NFL.Sauce Gardner is back.When he's been in the lineup there has been extreme susceptibility to the slot.Extreme susceptibility.So that's Parker Washington, but that's also Breton Strange top five in expected fantasy points per game among all tight ends the last three weeks of the season.I think this could be a really nice game for him.
A lot of running back receiving yards.But I think the big one here is Basil Tutin, right?Double digit favorite, fourth highest total.They're allowing more than five yards per carry.11Most yards per game allowed.This to me is an explosive game for Tutin and I think because of that coupled with Jacksonville's ability to get after the quarterback, especially with no Quentin Nelson, I can't pick against Jacksonville especially at home this week.
The speaker breaks down Las Vegas vs. New York and Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh, discussing Garrett Wilson, Brock Bowers, Browns defensive schemes, and a tight, physical Steelers matchup.
Speaker A
Vegas versus Jets.Honestly not a ton to talk about here.Genti is the other of the running backs with Chase Brown with three plus more expected fantasy points per game than actual fantasy points per game.Raiders defense has not been great on the ground.Almost five yards per carry allowed.Almost 150 yards per game allowed on the ground.It's third most in the NFL.
This is the third or fifth worth, excuse me, red zone defense in the NFL as well.So when push comes to shove and the jets are inside the 20.I think they can have a lot of success.It's worth talking about Geno Smith last week, first full game with Omar Cooper Jr. Garrett Wilson and A.D. mitchell.This guy was awesome.
Awesome.Against a past defense with similar in terms of fantasy points and yardage, similar numbers to the jets or sorry, Raiders, excuse me.287 for three touchdowns.He obviously threw a pick but he's been, you know, pretty solid when he's had his guys in lineup.Really.Omar Cooper Jr last week, 250 plus and both of them had 215 against Tennessee with Cooper in there for a little bit.He had that big, that big catch and got injured.But regardless, Geno Smith has been solid as of late and this is a really nice matchup for him.They're allowing the 11th most pass yards per game and recently they've really struggled against outside receivers.The Las Vegas Raiders, top 10 or bottom 10 really in points per game, yards per game in the last three weeks and eight wide receiver touchdowns allowed in the last four games for the Raiders.
I think you look at the numbers overall with the Raiders they've been solid against receivers but after these first three weeks against Miami, who doesn't really have a ton of receiver production.Chargers whose offense is struggling and then Saints.But a lot is still at 100 yards.Taekwond Thornton at 111 before he got injured and two touchdowns.Worthy still has 70.
Right.You had the Patriots here with three total touchdowns.Kai Williams with 91, Demario Douglas with 65, Chisholm with 57.Now these are slot guys but a lot of receiving production there.Two touchdowns here.Keon Coleman, Cleo Shakir, each with a touchdown and then Puka had 8 for 68 and a touchdown without Devonte Adams in the lineup.Right.Recently they've been struggling against receivers and it's been a lot on the outside.It's been pretty, you know, pretty even throughout the year.Actually a little more in the slot.But more recently they've been struggling on the outside which makes me really believe we could see a nice bounce back spot for Garrett Wilson here.I really do.Most EPA played allowed in the NFL the last three weeks.Defensively, Raiders, they have been struggling.Jets, honestly not a ton to write home about.They're solid against the run.
They like the time possession.They have the weird man middle field open combo that not a lot of teams have them.Chiefs, not a lot of teams do it.They're more susceptible in the slot but not super susceptible in the slot and only 202.9 pass yards per game allowed.They like to hold on to the football.They like to keep teams off the field.The only big piece of of noteworthy production for the jets is what outside receivers can do against them.I'll go to them real quick.Outside receivers against the New York jets, right?
Like there are guys who are able to take the top off, have some explosives against them now AJ Brown had 10 targets against them, obviously a couple drops, but the opportunities were there.Caleb Douglas had that big touchdown.Isaiah Bond left a lot on the field but Denzel Boston had that big touchdown.Roma Dunes had his best game of the year against them.It's nothing crazy but it's the outside receiver production, even though the volume is less frequent that makes me believe the Raiders can have some success.
If they do, that's Brock Bowers.Bowers is the one right?I don't know how comfortable I am with, you know, a receiver.He's really a tight end against a man heavy unit.But I do think it's worth looking at Bowers Genti not a bad matchup but the jets have been really good against the run all year and they don't play a ton of zones so I don't know if that receiving production really can mirror what it did last week against the Rams who again they didn't play a lot of zone but they kept a lot in front of them so we'll wait to see there but long winded way of me saying I don't think the Raiders have enough offensively.I think the jets are getting healthier.Breeze hall is questionable at the time recording this as well.I think they win.Cleveland versus Pittsburgh.
This is a really interesting one right?They already played three weeks ago.Cleveland won in pretty dramatic fashion.Browns defense is really good in terms of pass yards per game allowed 25th, 25th defensively 220.7 yards per game tied 23rd.Not a lot of running back production.Here's the thing though, that's the stop the the immovable object meeting the stoppable force.Like they are good against running back receiving but Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle are really heavily involved in the pass game.Now what Cleveland did schematically and you can see oh I don't have it on here but they biggest note in all this.I'm shocked I didn't write this.Most man to man in the NFL.What Cleveland does is play a lot of man and what they did against the Steelers in week four was man up across the board send five and almost force Jalen Warren to stay in in protection.
It forced Jalen Warren to be taken out of the pass game.Now, when it was DK Metcalf on Tyson Campbell, Rogers went there like every single time, right?That's where Rogers wants to go with the football.Denzel Ward, generally speaking, has not shadowed DK Metcalf when he's been on dk.It's been all Denzel Ward and you got a pick last game as well.
But he's not a true shadow right now.It's also worth noting for the Browns defensively, they're getting healthier.Mike hall has no injury designation walking into this game.It's a pretty big impact player on the interior defensive line.Over the last three weeks they've only allowed 176 pass yards per game and generating a negative 0.17 EPA per play.Defensively, the Browns defense has been really good as of late.It is worth talking about the teams that they've played because when you talk about recent games and it's the Ravens without Lamar and it's the jets and it's Tennessee Titans, yeah, you know you're probably going to have those games, but it's not like they haven't been able to do that against the better offenses that they've played.Right.Carolina is a top 10 offense.They did a really, really nice job against Bryce Young Week 1.
It was weird, like they didn't play any man.It was, it was a really weird thing.And Lauren Stiped, diced, diced them up and they were pretty good against Tampa, a fully healthy Tampa offense in week two.So I kind of go back and forth on this.They haven't allowed a 200 yard passer to Aaron Rodgers.Bryce Young was, you know, 2, 291 for a touchdown to pick.Panthers defense wasn't.Offense wasn't great against them.Brown defense is playing really well and I don't think those Steelers have enough offensively to blow them out, but they do have enough, I think to score on them.Now, Pittsburgh has been really bad in terms of running back receptions allowed.
Lot of running back receptions, a lot of running back receiving yards.Judkins through the air is the big one.Now I want to look at the game logs against the Pittsburgh Steelers last time they played because that to me is a huge tell.Right Quintean Judkins had.Where is it?6 for 43 and he was tackled at the 1.He scored the next play, I believe it was, but also a touchdown.He touched the ball 23 times.In this game, however, Dylan Sampson did not play.Dylan Sampson to me is the X factor in this game because of how heavily he involved he can be in the past game.
If the Steelers are bottom 10 and running back receiving yards, running back receptions, Dylan Sampson is going to be pretty heavily involved in checkdowns in the screen game.That is the X factor here.But I think the outside production rules.The rouge right Steelers are targeted there at a very, very high rate on the outside.Specifically, Denzel Boston had a stinker.He had two catches the week prior and then he went out and had 89 yards.He's had back to back stinkers here.I expect a little more volume there.Now it is worth noting KC Concepcion is getting more design touches and, and when a team like the Steelers walks in, they play zone at a very high rate.You're off wide receivers like physically farther away from them.Design touches, screen passes are going to be easier.And against Pittsburgh, he, he may have had as many targets as Boston, but he had 5 for 64.
So I think through the air the Browns can have some success.This is going to be a really tough game.This is a game where I feel like special teams wins, the little things win.
I don't know, I, I go back and forth on this.This is really tough.But I think at home, Pittsburgh, I, I'd be hard pressed to prep to pick against them right now.I think Pittsburgh takes it at home.
The final stretch covers Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay, Chargers vs. Rams, Chiefs vs. Broncos, and Patriots vs. Dolphins, ending with matchup-based fantasy projections and the closing sign-off.
Speaker A
Atlanta versus Tampa.This Falcons defense is top 10 in man to man.88.9 rush yards per game allowed.Not great in the red zone overall, not great against the pass.But recently they've been better partially because AJ Terrell has been back.However, all year they've really struggled against running back receiving.Christian McCaffrey was on base for a ridiculous game against Atlanta the last time they played.Now you can see this 88.9 rush yard per game number.I want to take that with a grain of salt.You go look at the game logs against the Atlanta Falcons.As of late, it hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows on the ground.It has not, right.He had 100 combined yards on 19 carries here from Christian McCaffrey and Kaylin Black.And then he had 29 carries for Chicago.They had three touchdowns.They had a lot of success on the ground.
And the week prior it was Derrick Henry.Now, I don't know if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run game is as good as those, right?But Bucky Irving's been playing really good football as of late, right?21 for 165 against a bad Dallas defense.Pittsburgh, you know, good defense.Season high in snaps though I don't think anybody talks about that after this Pittsburgh game.He was our number one buy low candidate.Yeah, I had 25 touches and two touchdowns last week.He when he gets a matchup he can exploit at least a little bit, takes advantage.I am not convinced it's on the ground and he hasn't had a lot of running back receipt or receiving production overall.
But the fact that this number is so high makes me believe with a mech Igbuka out because Baker Mayfield wants to get him involved in the pass game.This is also the Baker Stefanski game, so I don't know what that's going to look like.I don't know if that changes but this is the Baker versus the fancy game and it's going to be cool to watch.On the other side, Tampa's defense playing great.They're playing great.Hand up.I was a little skeptical walking into the year.In the secondary they've been really good on the ground.We knew they were going to be good.But through the air they've been pretty good.
They're generating pressure on about a third of their drop backs.They're playing a lot of zone.They're very susceptible on the outside.Michael Penck Jr. We all know loves to pepper the outside, loves to throw to the first read.It's often Drake London.This is a really nice Drake London game.I think their bottom 10 running back receptions and receiving yards per game and again fifth fewest yards per carry allowed in the NFL.Second fewest rush yards per game allowed.Bajan Robinson is going to struggle a little bit I think this week, right.I think he is going to have a tougher matchup in front of him.In a game where the Buccaneers are going to say let's close the middle of the field, let's load the box.Michael Panic's go beat us and I, I think Tampa could have a lot of success doing that.
Now I'd be hard pressed to pick against an Atlanta defense that I think is getting healthier.I think they're better in the secondary.So I think Atlanta wins.But this is going to be a good game.Chargers versus Rams.Honestly not a ton here or even the last three games but Chargers defense struggles mightily against these man gap scheme runs.That's where Blake Corum really excels.But the Rams overall excel.This is going to be in my opinion a big game for the Rams on the ground.Like you look at the numbers overall for La The Chargers, I gotta say.Which team?The Chargers.This year they've been solid against the run, but that's been partially with Derwin James.He's out and it's been bad against man gap scheme runs.He had a season high.Blake Corman snaps and touches last week.Now he gets charged.
Defense, that's bottom 10 against man gap runs.Rams are top five in rate efficiency.They're going to have, I think a lot of success now.They've been pretty good against the pass, but their big piece between the hashes is Derwin James and.And that's where Puka Nukua can exploit a defense the most.I just don't see this Chargers defense stopping the Rams, especially on the ground.Now the rams defense, top five man to man rate.9th most running back receptions allowed.4th most running back receiving yards allowed.So like guys who were involved in the pass game, it's, it's such a, such a toss up at this point, like we don't know.It's worth talking about Omarion Hampton potentially, you know, coming off his season high, I believe, if I'm not mistaken, or one of his highest snap counts of the year last year.Right, sorry, highest since week two.
But 50% of snaps.Guess how many touches he had.Guess.If you don't know before, before the buy, guess.
Let's go to it.11.That's it.And come on.Even all at 10, three catches.
So again, if you want to use Omarion Hampton in a certain way, this is the game to do it through the air.But there's nothing that has made me believe that the Chargers are committed to that.With that being said, I don't think they have enough offensively even off a buy.Even though the Rams are a little more beat up, it's clear to see how effectively they can run the ball with Corum and Kyron Williams.And this is the schematic dream for them.So I can't pick against the Rams at home, but at Sofi I can't pick against them.They're running the ball too well.Kansas City vs Denver Chiefs defense 4th roost rush yards per carry allowed.10th in man to man or top, top 10 demand rate, high slot target rate.Teams don't attack the perimeter against the Chiefs unless you have Jackson Smith and Jago on your team.
That's the reality.With it, they're struggling more against tight ends.But can you trust Evan Ingram?I want to go to the game logs against the Kansas City Chiefs because if you remember week one prime time, Evan Ingram scored a Touchdown, right.He had 4 for 43 and he got in the end zone.
Now, that was a blowout.I don't expect it to be the same, especially in Denver, but I do think it's worth noting that more consistently there's been some tight end production against the Chiefs.Like Bowers is a tight end again, he's an outside receiver.But Michael Mayer at 82, Greg Dolce had five or 55.And you know, the Chiefs are a good football team.I don't want to like, call the bluff of a team that's whatever they are, five and one or.Yeah, five and one.But I, I do wonder about the offenses that they've played.Played like.Vegas has been solid.Chargers have not been great.Colts not great.Right.Denver was not great Week one.Miami, like, I don't know.I, I think Denver is.
I don't think they're figuring it out offensively, but I think they're improving a little bit.With that being said, you look at the other, you know, game logs for the Kansas City Chiefs against the Denver Broncos.Like, Kenneth Walker had 23 for 173.And this Broncos run defense has been brutal all year long.You look at some of these running backs against Denver, you thought this was the unit walking of the year that wouldn't surrender anything on the ground, right?And again, they've been better as of late.But look at the guys who they're playing.Once they start playing those more dynamic guys, they struggle.Right.Ky Williams 15 for 88.Kenneth Walker obviously at 23 for 173.You know, as of late, it's been good, but they haven't played those.They haven't played a Kenneth Walker really since Kenneth Walker, but they haven't played a dynamic guy like that since Kyron Williams.
Obviously.Christian McCaffrey is an awesome player.I don't know if he's a true dynamic, you know, rusher right now.You know what I mean?But good player, great player.I don't think this Denver run defense can hold up 133reasure yards per game.
Middle of the pack against the pass target, the inline tight end spot at a higher rate.Rashee Rice is back.They're top 10 in, man, it's a really good defense and they're getting after the quarterback and Chief's offensive line is beat up.I don't know.Like, I'm talking myself out of the Chiefs right now, but I think the reality is, even on the road, the Chiefs have a lot going for them offensively.And I think the run game keeps them in and I got the Chiefs.Then finally New England Miami Dolphins defense zone heavy.They're allowing the 12th highest percentage of their passing yards in the slot.If slash when May throws it should be between the hashes.Hunter Henry really is the guy who should benefit from that the most.
Then on the other side, the Patriots defense top three in man to man higher percentage of their yards allowed on the outside.So that means Caleb Douglas, but he's going to get The Christian Gonzalez shadow 283.7 pass yards per game allowed in the last three though when we look at the New England Patriots or game logs against the New England Patriots, there's been some success through the air, right?Geno has been solid 252.Williams had 300 plus and two touchdowns last week.There have been some quarterbacks who have been able to exploit the Patriots defense.Will Malik Willis be one of them?I don't think so.And when you look at the running back production, that's really what I want to harp on because the Dolphins run the ball a ton.Like regardless, they're actually I believe the lowest percentage of their plays are passes.
The patriots have not allowed 100 yard rusher all year.Actually they haven't allowed an 80 yard rusher all year.So even if Ollie Gordon touched the ball 20 times, I don't expect a crazy game from him.I think even without A.J.brown, potentially Patriots bounce back after a mini buy Go into Miami and take care of business.If you enjoyed this video, make sure to leave a like we will see you next time.God bless.